Game #3: Eagles vs. Chiefs pre-game notes

Big game tonight.  Andy Reid’s return to Philly, but more importantly, a chance for the Eagles to take a 2nd win out of the first 3 games.  In the NFC East, 2-1 would look pretty damn good.  It’s a short week, so my normal schedule is a bit screwed up, however, there were a few things I wanted to get out there in preparation for tonight’s game:

- This one deserves its own post, but: The Eagles and Chip Kelly should be about as aggressive on fourth down as possible.  I’ve covered this at a league-average level, but I also mentioned the logical adjustments we should make according to how good/bad the offense/defense is.  Remember, using expected points, that a very good offense means possession of the ball is worth MORE than the averages we looked at.  Similarly, a bad defense means the OPPOSING team’s expected points at each yard line increase.

Well the Eagles’ offense looks very good.  It’s still unclear how the defense will shake out, but we thought they’d be a bit worse than average and they haven’t done anything to suggest that expectation was too low.

Logically, that means the Eagles have even more incentive to go for it on 4th down than most teams do.  They’re success rate should be higher, and the “value” of a punt should be lower.  Again, it deserves its own full analysis.  However, it’s pretty clear to me that the “right” call with this team is to go for it in 4th and 1-3 yard situations (maybe even 4-5 yards).  Additionally, field goals don’t mean very much, since there’s a good chance the opposing team comes right back and scores.

- The pass-rush needs to be better.  The Eagles defense might see a lot of the same tonight.  Heavy passing game, stressing short drops.  That gave the team fits on Sunday, but hopefully they’ve made a few adjustments since then.  I’ll be paying close attention to how they “disguise” the rush, since that was a big weakness against the Chargers.  However, it’s important to note that players need to win one-on-one battles as well.  That was also a big problem, though it’s a tougher one to fix.

- Is the offense as good as it looks?  This early in the season, it’s always tough to know how to apportion credit.   Is the Eagles offense amazing, or are the Redskins and Chargers defenses terrible?  Judging by the Redskins and Chargers’ other games, it might be more bad defense than we’d like to believe. Tonight, the Eagles face what appears to be a legitimately good defense.  They held the Jaguars to just 2 points in week one (not a huge accomplishment, but impressive nonetheless) and, on Sunday, held the Cowboys to 16 points.  The Cowboys, as much as we dislike them, are a good offensive team, and keeping them to 16 points is a really good performance (they scored 36 in week 1 against the Giants, though 14 of those came from TOs).  For what it’s worth, Football Outsiders has the Chiefs as the #1 defense so far.

By the end of tonight, for better or worse, we should have a bit more confidence in the offense’s “true” ability.

- The penalties.  Sunday’s game was sloppy.  The Eagles took 9 penalties, giving San Diego 77 free yards, including 4 first downs.  There were a lot of “differences” on Sunday, but the penalties are near the top of the list.  The O-Line illegal formation calls are absolutely unacceptable.  That’s the definition of an unforced error, and I struggle to understand how it’s even possible to commit that penalty, especially after the ref warns you multiple times.

I’m more concerned, though, with Cary Williams.  Unfortunately, I haven’t had time to finish a game review, but it seemed to me that Williams’ pass interference calls all occurred when he was in press coverage.  The book on WIlliams, before coming here, was that he likes playing off receivers and gives up a lot of short catches.  The upside is that he tackles well and doesn’t allow a lot of YAC.  On Sunday, the Eagles lined him up at the LOS.  The receivers then ran by him and he grabbed the jersey to stay close.

Williams should not be committing obvious penalties like that, but the coaches might not be doing him any favors with their positioning calls.  Maybe it was just one game, but I’m very curious to see how often he lines up at the LOS tonight.

That covers the large concepts.  I’ll put together a “benchmark” post after this week’s games, but so far, the Eagles look very much like the team we expected to see.   Tonight’s game looks like a toss-up to me.  I think the Chiefs are a playoff team (thought that before the season, not jumping on after 2 wins).  The offense doesn’t strike me as “explosive”, but then again, the Chargers’ offense didn’t either.

If the team can cut the penalties and find just a semblance of a pass-rush, I think the Eagles come out on top.

Adventures in tackling: Williams and Kendricks edition

I’ve been hard on Bill Davis over the past couple of days, and while he did not have a good game, the fact is that several players the Eagles rely on to play well did not.  Therefore, I figured I’d highlight a bad defensive play that was purely the result of players not doing their jobs; the Ryan Matthews 20 yard run.

Situation:  Game tied at 3.  4:49 remaining in the 1st quarter.  SD has 2nd and 8 at its own 9 yard line.  This is important to note.  SD began the possession with terrible field position (penalty on kick return after an Eagles field goal) and was still able to score a TD.  This play played a large role in the success of the drive.

Here is the pre-snap look:Screen Shot 2013-09-18 at 5.25.13 PM

I’ve illustrated the movement of the O-Line as well as the rush angles for the D-line.  Note Patrick Chung is in the box on the left, and rushes on this play.  Also, the blue lines are the resulting running lanes Matthews has after the play develops.

Screen Shot 2013-09-18 at 5.25.05 PM

Above is the play just before Matthews gets the handoff.  Notice his running lanes.  Kendricks as one blocked, Ryans as another blocked.  However, nobody has sealed the left edge, which Matthews sees and capitalizes on.

Next, the handoff has been made and Matthews has chosen his lane (cutting back away from the direction of the line’s blocking).  At this point, Kendricks is the only Eagle (on screen) in position to make the play.  Cary Williams, of screen, has noticed the run and come out of coverage (this view is more instructive than the All-22, though it keeps Williams off-frame until next shot).

Screen Shot 2013-09-18 at 5.24.57 PM

Below, we see Williams attacking and Kendricks pursuing.  This is the most important frame in the breakdown.  At this point, the Eagles have the play well-contained.  The LOS is the 9 yard line, so if the tackle is made, the resulting gain will likely be just 3-4 yards.

 

Screen Shot 2013-09-18 at 5.24.50 PM

Look at the angles I highlighted above.  Put simply, they’re not good.  If Williams cuts off the sideline, Matthews has nowhere to go.  Instead, he pursues aggressively (not necessarily a bad decision).

Screen Shot 2013-09-18 at 5.24.44 PM

Above, we see the result of the angles I highlighted in the last frame.  Kendricks is beat, though it’s not really his fault.  Both he and Matthews are running laterally towards the side-line, and I don’t think expecting Kendricks to match Matthews’ speed is fair.  The bigger issue here is Cary Williams.  His poor previous angle means the sideline is now open for Matthews; all he has to do is beat Williams to the spot.

Below, we see the moment of truth.  Williams has put himself in position to make a tackle, but he’s also failed to contain Matthews, meaning if Williams DOESN’T make the play, nobody else can.  Conversely, had he contained, Kendricks would be in position to make the tackle.

Screen Shot 2013-09-18 at 5.24.38 PM

That leads us to…Screen Shot 2013-09-18 at 5.24.32 PM

Williams doesn’t make the tackle.  Contain is broken, so nobody else is in position to make the play.  A 3-4 yard gain has turned into a 20 yard gain, moving the Chargers from 2nd and 8 at its own 9 yard line to 1st and 20 at their 29 yard line.

Just to review, at one point the play looked like this:Screen Shot 2013-09-18 at 5.24.50 PM

Which led to this:Screen Shot 2013-09-18 at 5.24.32 PM

I still don’t understand Davis’ reluctance to incorporate the 4-3 into his defense, at least until the team has the personnel to commit to the 3-4.  However, if guys like Williams and Kendricks (to a lesser extent here), don’t perform, it doesn’t matter what defensive scheme the team runs, or how well blitzes are disguised.

We know Nate Allen isn’t good.  We know the backup CBs will be overmatched.  It’s wasted energy to lament those areas.

Guys like Williams and Kendricks, however, are fair game, and need to be much better.

Snap Count Insights…or Questions

I said after the game that the biggest disappointment for me was Bill Davis, the defensive coordinator.  Put simply, the defense was SO BAD at times, that a response of “let’s try anything because it can’t possible be worse than this” was warranted.  I still have to go through the All-22, but at the moment, it seems like Davis wasn’t nearly as creative as he could have/should have been.

At 1:42 pm on Sunday (early in the game), I tweeted this:

Screen Shot 2013-09-17 at 5.41.02 PM

 

As Eagles players have since confirmed, Rivers was consistently identifying the Eagles defensive alignment and pass-rushers pre-snap, then making the corresponding adjustments.  I’ve repeatedly stressed that I’m not a scout, nor do I have any professional experience.  The fact that I (and many spectators) quickly saw an issue should tell you how obvious it MUST have been to Davis.

Frankly, Rivers’ comfort level was so obvious that it should have warranted an immediate adjustment.  Unfortunately, that didn’t happen (at least not to the extent it should have.)

In that vein, I paid particular attention to the defensive snap counts from Sunday’s game.  Seeing as it was competitive the entire time (as compared to game 1), I thought it would give us a really good idea of what Chip Kelly’s current roster hierarchy and player usage philosophy is.  It’s likely, of course, that Davis has full control of the defense, though I haven’t confirmed that.  Regardless, what I saw was, in light of the performance, unsettling.

- Jeff Maehl played 5 total snaps (3 offense, 2 STs).  Maehl is not a defender.  However, given the Vinny Curry controversy, it’s very fair to question if 5 snaps of Jeff Maehl is worth an active roster spot.  That suggests to me that either Chip is being really stubborn, or the Curry inactivity is the result of an “attitude” or “example-setting” rationale.  Everyone knew going into the game that the pass-rush was going to be vital to success.  Passing over Curry for Maehl (who was barely used), looked bad then and much worse now.  It’s possible that Curry wouldn’t have helped at all (I think he’s being overrated by the general fan base); but he DEFINITELY would have helped more than Jeff Maehl (and several others).

- Jordan Poyer played just 7 snaps, all on STs.  Given what we know about the Eagles CBs and what happened during the game, it’s clear that Poyer has ZERO trust from the coaching staff.  If he couldn’t get on the field in game where the Eagles lost a starting CB and were getting absolutely shredded with the pass, then when can he play?  If at this point, he is solely a STs player, we again have to question the value of his roster spot.  Granted, STs have been very good so far, so obviously they’re doing something right there.  If this continues though, we might have to revisit the “overweighting STs” storyline.

- Geathers played 14 snaps on defense, Square played 12.  I haven’t yet looked at their individual performances, and I assume they were just as ineffectual as the starters.  However, could they really have been any worse than the starters, who weren’t getting anything remotely resembling pressure?

As the game progressed and it was clear the defense was not going to stop SD absent some good luck, wouldn’t it have made sense to rotate backups/young players into the game more frequently?  They gain experience and/or make an impact on the game.  The veterans get a breather and/or a message that their performance simply isn’t good enough.  As I said before, what’s the downside?  The veterans/starters couldn’t possibly have believed they “deserved” to keep playing.

- One Caveat, though it doesn’t excuse Davis.  Rivers used a lot of quick throws and three-step drops.  In that case, it’s nearly impossible to pressure the QB, there simply isn’t enough time.  The counter-move is to drop more players into coverage.  Ideally, you’d hide players at the line, disguising them as pass-rushers, then have them drop underneath the short passing lanes in hopes of either cutting off passing lanes or forcing an interception.  Pending All-22 review, I didn’t see Davis try this often enough, and when he did, there was no adequate disguise.  Of course, dropping players into coverage assumes they’ll actually know to COVER…which apparantly is not an entirely reasonable assumption (see Eddie Royal’s hilariously open TD grab against an Eagles D rushing just 3 players).

 

Eagles vs. Chargers: Post-Game Thoughts

The result is obviously a disappointment, and once again there’s a lot to discuss.  I’m going to structure this with bullet points.

- The benefits of Bayesian Analysis.  Before the season, I had the Eagles as a 9 win team (maybe 9.1 if we’re being exact).  Before this game, I had the Eagles as a 9 win team.    Now, I STILL have the Eagles as a 9 win team.  Remember we’re talking “value” not actual wins, but the point is you should never forget your original beliefs.  Human thinking is subject to a LOT of different cognitive biases, among which is the Recency Effect.  In short, people usually overweight more recent experiences and underweight older events.  This will need a full post, but the quick point for now is that the Eagles look very much like the team we expected to see.  If we are searching for the team’s “true” value, the game today is just one piece of evidence, which must be added to our prior information and viewed in context with everything we “know”.  The Eagles lost a game they should have won; yet that’s no reason to panic.

- The offense is SCARY good.  The Eagles’ offense played a rather poor game.  Sloppy penalties, dropped catches, overthrown passes, a missed field goal.  And yet, the Eagles still scored 30 points.  If those mistakes are cleaned up, the team very easily could have scored 40+.  That’s extremely encouraging.  I expected the Eagles offense to be very good, but it looks as though it can exceed my expectations.  Last season, just two teams averaged more than 30 points per game (Patriots and Broncos).  I think the Eagles, this year, can get very close to that mark.  

- Bill Davis needs to improve. The defense was terrible, and much of that is due to low talent and bad play.  However, it looked to me like Davis could have attacked the game much differently.  The biggest disappointment, and ultimately the biggest reason the Eagles lost, was the play of the Defensive line.  I said pre-game that pressure was going to be the key to the game, and clearly the Eagles failed in that respect.  The players share some blame, but after a certain amount of time, that blame shifts to the DC.  This is pending a full All-22 review, but it looked like there were a LOT of A gap blitzes (right/left of the center).  They didn’t work, but Davis kept calling them.  

After it was apparent the Eagles couldn’t get pressure with either 4 pass-rushers or the blitz, Davis should have changed tacks.  How about moving to the 4-3?  I saw it once or twice, and it’s possible I just missed a few other times, but given that the team’s personnel still best fits the 4-3 alignment, that should have been a 2nd half staple.  

I know what a lot of you are saying.  Nate Allen is terrible and the CBs were bad (besides Boykin, who had a solid game).  However, Nate Allen is not a long-term guy.  Presumably, the CB corps will see some upgrades next offseason as well.  That leaves Davis as the only “long-term” guy we need to worry about.

This was going to be ugly for the defense regardless of what Davis did; but I had hoped to see a few more in-game adjustments, if for no other reason than what they were doing wasn’t even coming close to working.

- Chip Kelly screwed up the End-game.  Lost in the speed of the game was Chip Kelly’s poor late-game management.  In short, on their final drive, the Eagles should not have been in the no-huddle offense.  At that point, it’s clear the defense can’t be relied on to get a stop.  Additionally, given the situation, running clock would likely have forced the Chargers to burn a TO or two.  Chip stayed with the no huddle, and in doing so left more than enough time for SD to move into game-winning FG position.  That was an unforced error, and one that cost the team dearly.  

Also, while more subjective, Chip’s play-call on the one snap Nick Foles played was puzzling.  Foles’ strength is his short-medium accuracy and pocket presence.  Given 2nd and 10 in the red zone, the Eagles just needed to pick up a few yards, hopefully giving a re-entered Vick a manageable 3rd down.  Instead, the call was an end zone fade.  With Foles coming off the bench cold, it was a very strange call to make.  

In theory, Chip should improve with experience.  However, it’s not as if these are situations he hasn’t faced before.  In his first true “pressure” test, Kelly failed.

- This week’s game against the Chiefs is BIG.  If you’ll recall my preseason “roadmap to 9 wins”, the first benchmark was after week 3, at which point the team needed 2 wins.  I explained that it really doesn’t matter which 2 teams the Eagles beat (though the Redskins would be nice), just as long as they came out 2-1.  Obviously, to hit that mark, the team needs to beat the Chiefs.  

- The Silver Lining.  Part of my confidence in the Eagles performance this year lay in the fact that the NFC East is not a terribly competitive division.  I expected the Redskins to be good, but figured the Cowboys and Giants were both coming into the season overrated.  Through two weeks, things could not have gone better for the Eagles.  As I’m writing, we’re 2:30 minutes away from a Giants loss, meaning all 4 NFC East teams dropped games today.  8 wins might take this division this year.

Week 2: Eagles vs. Chargers Pre-game Notes

This is a very good matchup for the Eagles; they should win this game.

I’d have said that (and did) before last week, so now I’m even more confident.  I’ve seen a few articles and commentators talking about the danger of being “overconfident”, and it’s a valid concern.  However, the Chargers just do not match up very well with the Eagles.  Outside of one specific vulnerability, which I’ll get to in a minute, I’m not seeing a lot to be concerned about.

- The Chargers run game isn’t very good.  Last year, the team ranked 28th in the league according to Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA stat.  Ryan Mathews, the Chargers’ #1 RB, averaged just 58.9 rushing yards per game in 2012.  It’s always tricky when comparing a team’s performance year-over-year, so these stats should be taken with a grain of salt.  The team does have 3 new starters on the O-Line (though one is King Dunlap).  The point, however, is that San Diego doesn’t have anywhere near the rushing attack the Redskins do.  As a result, we should see the Eagles focusing mainly on pass defense, at least until the Chargers prove they can threaten with the run.  Last week, Ryan Matthews had just 13 carries, and I don’t see any reason to believe he’ll be a larger focus this week.

 – The Chargers passing game is just OK.  Similar caveats apply (year-over-year comparison, roster changes, etc…), but Football Outsiders had the 2012 Chargers ranked 16th overall in Passing DVOA.  Philip Rivers is obviously the key here.  He’s a very good QB.  It seems like people are down on him, but look at his stat line from last season:

64.1% Comp., 26-15 TD-INT ratio, 88.6 Passer Rating.

Now he only threw for 225 yards per game, but if the Eagles are going to lose, it’s going to be because Philip Rivers beat them (or they beat themselves).

- The Biggest Vulnerability for the Eagles.  The shallowest position on the Eagles team is CB.  Bradley Fletcher, a starter, will not play.  That’s a problem.  Brandon Boykin will start in Fletcher’s place, and I’m confident he can fill in adequately.  However, behind Boykin and Williams, the Eagles don’t have anyone I trust.  Further, if Boykin or Williams goes down with an injury, we could see some fireworks (not good ones).  That brings me to…

- The Key to the Game (the only one).  As I just explained, the Eagles CBs might have trouble defending the Chargers passing attack.  How does the team counter?  With a disruptive D-Line.  Given the lack of rushing threat, I expect to see Trent Cole in full pass-rush mode for most of this game.  I hope Vinny Curry will be active, that would help. I also expect to see Kendricks on multiple blitzes and Brandon Graham for more than 16 defensive snaps.  Basically, Bill Davis will do everything he can to get to Rivers before Rivers can get to the CBs.  

Did I mention that King Dunlap is starting at OT for the Chargers?

I did?  Good.  Then you’re already smiling.

As I mentioned in the week 1 post-game notes, I’d like to see Davis use a 4-3 alignment more often.  It allows the team to get its best pass-rushing line-up on the field and will help keep offenses off balance.  I don’t think he’ll do it, but it makes a lot of sense to me, so I’ll be keeping a eye out for it.

- Vick’s accuracy.  He needs to be better.  He left a lot on the field in game 1, on throws that shouldn’t have been difficult to complete.  For the offense to truly “take off”, he needs to hit those consistently.  As I explained in the Rewind, Chip Kelly’s packaged plays will scheme receivers open.  That works as long as Vick can get them the ball.  If he can do that consistently, the team will be extremely difficult to defend.  

- Where’s Damaris?  Good question, I’m hoping we’ll see him soon.  

- More Bryce Brown.  Brown had 9 rushing attempts in game 1.  I expect that number to climb into the 10-15 range as the season progresses.  It’s tough to get him on the field when the offense is moving at warp-speed, but Kelly has to know that keeping Shady healthy is vital to making a playoff run.  Given Brown’s talent, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take the RB role for entire drives, but that might not happen until later in the season.  Still, expect to notice him more this week, with a few more touches, and more importantly, more effective running.

- Kelly Challenges.  A minor issue, but given how horrendous last week’s challenge was, it bears watching.  This is such a simple part of the game, it’s astonishing so many coaches/teams struggle with it.  It won’t come into play often, but losing a TO on a foolish challenge is an unforced error.  That holds for both unwinnable challenges (last week) and low reward challenges.

- Guys I’ll be focused on:  Sopoaga, Logan, Johnson, Boykin.  

- Prediction:  Eagles 31 – Chargers 20  

Lastly, from ColdHardFootballFacts:

Screen Shot 2013-09-14 at 8.40.34 PM

See that second line there?  There’s obviously more to this data than just the time/location of the games, but the fact remains: it’s very tough for anyone to play a road game on the opposite coast.

Rest assured, the Eagles will “come down” at some point this season.  However, it’s very unlikely that it happens this week.

Week 1: Eagles vs. Redskins Rewind

First, I need to let everyone know about a structural change to the weekly Rewind post.  Last season, I typically posted at least 2-3 plays per game, with accompanying diagrams and breakdowns.  As you all have undoubtedly noticed, now everyone is doing it.  I’ve repeatedly stressed that my overall objective here is to provide analysis that ISN’T offered anywhere else, so the proliferation of All-22 Breakdowns puts me in a tough spot.

Therefore, this season, I will still be doing a weekly “Rewind” column, but I will likely focus on particular aspects of the game that I think are going unreported.  That will usually be accompanied by screenshots and/or illustrations when appropriate.  However, I will reserve the play diagrams for only the most important situations.  For now, if you want really good play diagrams, see Derek Sarley at Philly.com or Sheil Kapadia at Birds 24/7.  If you’re at this site, you have probably already seen those breakdowns for this week, but if not, definitely take a look; it’s really high quality stuff.

Now to the game.  After re-watching with the coach’s film:

- RG3 was CLEARLY not 100%. That’s not meant to decline detract from the Eagles’ defensive performance (you can only beat who you play), but it’s an important thing to remember as the season progresses.  For example, look at this picture:

Screen Shot 2013-09-12 at 5.43.10 PM

This play occurred on a 3rd and 11 with 4:47 remaining in the 2nd quarter.  Connor Barwin rushed upfield, beat the RT outside, and chased RG3 down from behind.  Above, you can see Griffin as he begins to leave the pocket, as well as Barwin as he turns the corner.  The result of the play was a 2 yard gain.  To be fair, RG3 was not running full speed.  However, it’s a good example of what I saw throughout the game.  Namely, RG3 played differently than he did last season (when fully healthy).  Consequently, the Eagles were able to defend him differently.

The Eagles did not have to “spy” or “mush-rush” or run any sort of QB contain scheme with the D-Line.  They attacked RG3 as though he was just another  “normal” QB.

As we all know, what makes the Redskins dangerous is RG3.  Put simply, if RG3 is playing like “just another QB”, then Washington is no longer a division favorite.  As the season moves on and this game recedes into our memory, it will be tempting to say “the Eagles D handled a great offense under RG3″.  That’s a mistake.  Monday Night, the Eagles defense did NOT play against a great offense.  So it was a good performance, but hardly indicative of what we can expect against powerful offensive teams or mobile QBs.

- One of my assumptions about Chip Kelly’s offense was clearly wrong.  I expected the Eagles to focus more heavily on creating “matchup advantages” with their personnel groupings and formations.   However, It looks as though the Eagles offensive options and read progressions will not change depending on the pre-snap defensive alignment.  The Eagles will run the play called no matter what, and just force the defense to expose a weakness.  There aren’t any pre-snap reads or adjustments for Vick to make (allowing the offense to move more quickly).

From a spectator’s perspective, it’s not a big deal.  However, from my perspective, it clears up some of what Chip Kelly’s overall philosophy is.  It’s less about maximizing the “weapons”, and more about the design.  The upshot is that the game-plan should be more resilient in the face of injuries.  The loss of a guy like D-Jax won’t have nearly as big an effect as it would in a more playmaker-focused system.  If the QB makes the right decision, SOMEONE will be open, meaning the marginal difference in skill between receivers becomes less important (scheme gets them open rather than individual skill).  For example, this play (from Bill Barnwell’s breakdown) would probably work with anyone at TE:

The run fake draws the LBs, the bubble screen draws the safety, and Celek is left with an open seam, all he has to do is run straight and catch the ball.  By comparison, think back to Brian Westbrook and all the moves Reid made specifically to get him the ball.  Chip doesn’t appear to work that way.

- Don’t worry too much about the 2nd half defense.  The Eagles didn’t go into a full “prevent” D, but it wasn’t far off.   Allow me to illustrate.  Washington has the ball, 1st and 10 on it’s own 24 yard line.  The score is 33-20, and there is 8:51 remaining on the clock. This doesn’t look like a “prevent” defense (instant after the snap):Screen Shot 2013-09-13 at 1.07.43 PM

It’s certainly conservative, but still fairly “normal”.

Running the play forward, we get this:Screen Shot 2013-09-13 at 1.24.27 PM

This is one step before RG3 makes his throw.  Notice the 30 yard line, which I’ve highlighted in red.  There are 5 Eagles beyond it, and NO Redskins. Nate Allen, deep at the start of the play, backpedals even more, despite all of the underneath routes from Washington.  Clearly, the Eagles were content to allow short completions at this point.  We can argue about the correct time to shift into this type of defense, but the point is that the 2nd half “rally” was largely a function of the score/time, and less a result of the Eagles not playing well.

- I would have liked to see a bit more scheme flexibilty from Bill Davis.  Given the big lead, and obvious passing situations, I hoped to see the defense shift to a 4-3, putting both Cole and Graham in a position to attack.  Graham ended the game with just 16 defensive snaps.  Going forward, I’ll be keeping an eye on this.  In theory, if you believe the offense will score a lot of points, then the defense should be more concerned with the passing game.  Here’s where Vinny Curry’s inactive/active status becomes interesting.  In general, I don’t have a problem with Curry being inactive, since I assume it’s because he’s missing assignments that we can’t see.  However, he is clearly on of the most disruptive pass rushers the Eagles have.

With a late lead and in passing situations, being able to play a 4 man D-Line composed of Cole and Graham on the ends, and Cox and Curry in the middle, seems like a very valuable option.

That’s all for now.  There were some other players I was watching, but whose performance necessitates a “not enough info” or  “incomplete” grade, particularly the Sopoaga/Logan situation and the Safety play.  I’m sure we’ll get a better look at them next week, in what will probably be a more “normal” game.

4th and 1; Gaming out Chip Kelly’s first big decision

There is a LOT to get through from Monday night’s game, but I wanted to dedicate a post to something extremely important.  Remember when I said that Chip Kelly’s biggest opportunity for truly “changing the game” lies in his 4th down decisions?  Well…

Screen Shot 2013-09-11 at 2.20.37 PM

 

Less than 2 minutes into the first game, Chip Kelly gets his first test.  Obviously, Chip went for it.  In fact, what I liked most about this play was that he continued to use the no-huddle.  Many coaches would have kicked a field goal in that situation.  Several other coaches would have gone for it, but would have called a TO or at least huddled up first, giving him some time to think about a play call.  Few, if any, would attack it the same way Chip did (no-huddle, no hesitation).

I’ve provided the high-level analysis for why, in general, going for it on 4th and 1 is better than kicking a field goal.  Here, though, we have a fresh, real-life example.  So let’s game it out:

Using Pro-football-reference’s play-finder, I searched for all 4th and 1 plays since 2008 season in which a team went for it.  Also, I included only regular season plays beyond the opponents’ 25 yard line and EXCLUDED all 4th quarter plays, since presumably the scoring incentives are a little different that late.  Using that search, we see:

- Teams were successful 63% of the time.

- The average gain for a successful play was 3.31 yards.

I won’t go through the step by step process again, other than to again cite AdvancedNFLStats.com for its Expected Points Concept.  For the step-by-step process, see here.  I’ll illustrate this in a table below, but for now, just know that, using the numbers above, going for it has an expected value of 2.52.

Meanwhile, the Eagles could have attempted a field goal from the 21 yard line.  Given the 10 yard end zone and the additional distance between the LOS and the hold (roughly 8 yards for Henery), that means the actual distance of the kick would have been about 39 yards.

From Bill Barnwell, we can see that the odds of making that kick are about 82%.

We also have to note that a missed kick in this situation gives the Redskins the ball at its 29 yard line (spot of the kick, not LOS).    So a missed kick, expected 18% of the time, is “worth” -0.85 expected points.

Putting that all together, we get this table:

Screen Shot 2013-09-11 at 2.46.26 PM

2.52 > 2.31

As you can see, going for it carried a higher expected value, and hence was the correct play at that point in the game.

At this point I have to note the caveat that we are using AVERAGE success rates.  For example, it’s possible (likely?) that the Eagles, by virtue of having McCoy and Jason Peters, have a better than average chance of converting 4th and 1.  It’s also possible that Alex Henery carries a significantly different average success rate (though I don’t think so).

So what we have here is a foundation, you can shift the analysis any way you like from there.  If the Eagles are better than average rushers, the expected value of going for it goes up (higher success rate).  Similarly, if the team was playing against a very good defense, we can assume that expected value would decrease (lower success rate).  Those moves, though, are all subjective, I’m merely setting the baseline.

Decisions like these are hugely important from a strategic standpoint.  The 0.21 difference in values above might not seem like much, but it’s significant.   If we think of the “gain” there in terms of an extra possession from the Eagles’ 17 yard line (worth 0.22 EP), it’s a lot easier to recognize the importance of making the right decision.

If Chip Kelly can consistently makes these calls, he’ll already being changing the game, regardless of what his offense does.  Coaches overall should be doing this, but it’s clear that, given the external pressures involved, they’re waiting for more cover.  Chip doing it successfully can serve that purpose, allowing everyone in the league to do things the “right” way, which would result in more entertaining (and optimal) football.

Or maybe it was just a one time thing and Chip will prove to be more conventional after all…