As the season winds down, I thought it’d be a good time to take a look at the standings, particularly the bottom as teams jostle for better draft position. While it’s very difficult to root for the Eagles to lose, make no mistake, losses are much more valuable than wins right now (repeating the note from last week’s post-game, the drop from the #3-#4 draft pick is worth a second round pick according to the standard value chart).
There are currently 8 teams at 4-9 (including the Eagles). Below is the current order of teams (according to ESPN) as well as the combined records of the teams each has left to play. There are 5 teams at 5-8, but for the sake of clarity, I chose to omit them.
Team Remaining Schedule (Combined Record)
Carolina (4-9) – SD, OAK, NO (13-26)
Tennessee (4-9) – NYJ, GB, JAC (17-22)
Detroit (4-9) – ARZ, ATL, CHI (23-16)
Arizona (4-9) – DET, CHI, SF (21-17-1)
Philadelphia (4-9) – CIN, WAS, NYG (22-17)
Oakland (3-10) – KC, CAR, SD (11-28)
Jacksonville (2-11) – MIA, NE, TEN (19-20)
Kansas City (2-11) – OAK, IND, DEN (22-17)
Note: The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule (teams with a lower SOS get a higher pick).
– It’s very unlikely that either KC or JAC will win 2 of their remaining 3 games, meaning we can cross the Eagles off for the #1-#2 draft pick.
– Oakland actually has a very easy schedule and could win any of their three remaining games, though it’s likely that if they finish with the same record as the Eagles they will win the tiebreaker (a function of the relative division strength). Therefore, the #3 pick is unlikely as well).
– After that, the Eagles have the inside track on the #4 pick, and will likely take it if they lose out. Conversely, one win by the Eagles puts all of the 5-8 teams in play (remember there are 5 of them now).
– Key game to watch this week (other than the Eagles of course) is Oak-KC. If Oakland wins, the Eagles could find themselves tied for the #3 pick. Though I noted above that SOS would likely still favor Oakland, the Raiders have two games (CAR, SD) that are relatively winnable.
Due to the Thursday night game this week, there will be a long layoff before the All-22 comes out and I can review it. Therefore, the beginning of next week will have look at the draft board and what’s available for the Eagles versus what the projected needs are going into next year.