Patrick Causey, on Twitter @pcausey3

This is a three-part series analyzing where the Eagles stand after the game against the Dallas Cowboys. This is part three. You can read all three by clicking the following links below:

• Part 1: The Run Game
• Part 2: The Passing Game
• Part 3: How Predictable Play Calling is Contributing to the Inconsistency on Offense, and a Preview of the Eagles Remaining Schedule

Predictability of Play Calling: Murray swing pass, Murray run

Lost in the euphoria of the Eagles win over a hated division rival is how poorly the Eagles played for the first three quarters of the game. As I mentioned about 3,000 words ago, the Eagles offense produced just 91 yards of total offense in the first three quarters, excluding their two touchdown drives.

Many expected the Eagles to come out of their bye week swinging. Instead, the Eagles started off the game with a rare feat, running six plays without getting a single first down. It was an ominous sign of the things to come, and was made worse by the fact that the defense allowed the Matt Cassell-led Cowboys to drive the ball 93 yards down the field for a touchdown.

The Eagles next two drives combined yielded just nine plays for 38 yards.  On three third downs the Eagles faced to start the game, Bradford threw the ball short of the sticks and unsurprisingly, failed to gain a first down. Here are examples of two of those throws:

Eagles fans and media members were understandably frustrated. Throughout the game, Twitter was filled with examples of frustrated fans and media members who had seen enough

https://twitter.com/InsdeTheHuddle/status/663534023017406465

Simply put, it was an incredibly frustrating first 45 minutes of the game.

Many people have asked why the Eagles have consistently struggled in the first halves of games. One explanation is that Chip Kelly has become too predictable of a play caller. Some of this probably unfair, since every team has tendencies in certain downs and game situations. Some level of predictability is to be expected.

But some of it was entirely justified. For example, earlier this year Kelly started running the ball with Bradford under center after it became clear that Murray was struggling running from the shotgun. The Eagles ended up calling 17 plays with Bradford lined up under center against the Saints, which had to be some sort of record for a Kelly-led offense.The only problem? On every single play, the Eagles ran the ball.

Before that, Kelly was telegraphing the direction in which he run plays were designed by the formation of his running back. Specifically, when a running back would line up on one side of the quarterback in the shotgun formation, he would run to the other side of the field 80% of the time.

Each of these examples are far too predictable against NFL defenses and defensive coordinators. It’s why you heard stories about defensive players calling out the Eagles plays before they were snapped.

While Kelly has done a better job switching things up as of late, there is one area that really stands out that needs to be changed. To start the game against the Cowboys, the Eagles called a pass that incorporated a swing pattern for DeMarco Murray out of the backfield:

The next play, Murray did an inside zone run on second down.

The problem with this series of play calling — in addition to gaining only one yard total — is that it has become a staple for the Eagles to start each half.

There have been 16 halves of football played by the Eagles.The first play run in eight of those halves was a designed pass play to Murray out of the backfield. He was targeted on seven of those plays, six of which involved Murray running a swing route.

To make matters worse: on nine of the 16 drives in question, the Eagles ran the ball on the very next play, usually on an inside zone run up the middle.

In other words, there is approximately a 50% chance that the Eagles will start the first and second halves by throwing a swing pass to Murray followed by Murray running the ball up the middle.

If I can figure this out in 30 minutes looking over NFL Films, you can rest assured NFL defensive coordinators have figured this out as well.

And how did the Eagles do on those plays? Not good. On those seven pass plays to Murray on first down, the Eagles have gained an average of 2.14 yards per play. And on those follow up run plays, the Eagles have gained only 3.88 yards per play.

To be fair to Chip Kelly, this is not entirely his fault. Almost every pass play in his offense comes with multiple options. So Bradford can go in another direction if he so chooses, as we saw on the one occasion where Bradford threw the ball to Agholor instead of Murray.

But, if the defense knows what routes are coming — and it says here that they do — then it is much easier for the defense to shut those other routes down and force the Eagles to settle for a dump off to Murray.

The most troubling thing, at least for me, is that the Eagles coaching staff failed to pick up on this during the bye week. The Eagles coaching staff spent the bye week self-scouting themselves, including their play calling.

The fact that the Eagles came out against the Cowboys and ran the exact same two plays to start the game is somewhat shocking. The Eagles need to switch things up on opening drives. One thing we’ve seen is that the offense gets rolling after it is able to convert a first down or two. But that momentum will be much harder to manufacture if the defense knows which plays are coming. Keep an eye against the Dolphins to see if the Eagles run these plays to start each half. If they do, do not be surprised if it leads to another three and out.

The Eagles Remaining Schedule

A short word on the Eagles remaining schedule. The Eagles are in prime position to go on a mini-win streak here, as their next three opponents (Miami, Tampa Bay, and Detroit), are a combined 7-17. If the Eagles handle their business, they will be 7-4 by the time they travel to New England to take on the Patriots.

But it gets better. Looking over the NFC East, the Eagles have a decided advantage over the New York Giants in terms of strength of schedule. Here is a breakdown of the NFC East by records plus the records of their remaining opponents:

• Giants 5-4 (37-19)
• Eagles 4-4 (33-32)
• Redskins 3-5 (31-34)
• Cowboys 2-6 (35-29)

The Giants have a demonstrably harder schedule than the Eagles. And this is made worse by the fact that five of their remaining eight games are being played on the road. Conversely, the Eagles are playing five home games to just three road games. In what figures to be a close race down the stretch, the Eagles have an advantage over their biggest threat for the NFC East crown.

And while I hate to pick games — usually because I am wrong — it is not hard to get the Eagles to 9-7 or even 10-6:

• Mia
• TB
• Det
• NE (L)
• Buf
• Arz (L)
• Was
• NYG

This puts the Eagles at 10-6, a remarkable feat given how inconsistent they were to start the season. But even if we assume the Eagles might lose a game they should win, they could still easily land on 9-7. Given the current state of the rest of the NFC East, that might just be enough to win the division.

Patrick Causey, on Twitter @pcausey3

This is a three-part series analyzing where the Eagles stand after the game against the Dallas Cowboys. This is part two. You can read all three by clicking the following links below:

• Part 1: The Run Game
• Part 2: The Passing Game
• Part 3: How Predictable Play Calling is Contributing to the Inconsistency on Offense, and a Preview of the Eagles Remaining Schedule

The Passing Game

My reservations about Sam Bradford are well-documented, but I have also said that he deserves until after the bye-week before we pass judgment on his game. Not to beat a dead horse, but Bradford missed the last two-years recovering from multiple acl tears. He was then forced to learn a new offense and develop chemistry with his new teammates this past offseason. But he was prevented from doing either of those things because he spent most of his time in March through August rehabbing his knee. So the inconsistent play was to be expected.

Chip Kelly was steadfast earlier in the year that chemistry or a lack of understanding of the offense was not hurting Bradford. But this past week, Kelly finally relented some in his press conference. The quote is courtesy of Jimmy Kempski at Phillyvoice.com:

“I think everything in Sam’s game has gotten better,” said Kelly. “As I’ve said before, I’ve seen Sam improve on a weekly basis here. We’re in Game Eight. He’s better in Game Eight than he was in Game One. I think he’s more comfortable in terms of what we’re doing.”

“In terms of where we are as an offense with a lot of these guys, it’s kind of like there was a movie being shown and (Bradford) showed up halfway through it,” said Kelly. “And then he’s supposed to figure out what’s going on and what happened in the first half of the movie because he hasn’t been with us for the amount of time that Celek has been here and some of the other guys, like Kelce, have been here. It’s something you have to get through reps; it’s not something that can be forced.”

And while Bradford got off to a slow start yet again this past Sunday, he played arguably his best half of football in the second half. And this came on the heels of an equally impressive performance turned in against the Carolina Panthers.

Bradford’s numbers over the last two games aren’t anything to write home about: 51/82, 62.2%, 500 yards, 1 td, 1 int, and an 81.05 quarterback rating. But if we go beyond the numbers and look at the tape, some encouraging signs are starting to emerge.

One of the biggest issues Bradford had earlier in the season was not getting through his progressions. Bradford would predetermine where he wanted to go with the ball, which would cause him to often miss open receivers in the process.

Over the last two weeks, however, Bradford has been doing a better job working through his progressions. One such example occurred on this perfectly delivered ball to DeMarco Murray on a swing pass, a route that Bradford has shown an affinity towards throughout the year:

Bradford starts by looking to the far side of the field, where he has three receivers lined up in a trips formation. Watch how quickly he diagnoses that the receivers are covered. By the time he gets to the top of his drop, he is able to pivot and deliver an accurate strike to Murray down the sideline.

Here is a better angle where you can see Bradford work through his progressions and fluidity with which Bradford pivots to Murray:

Another thing we are seeing from Bradford is his ability to manipulate a defense with his eyes. We started to see glimpses of this against the Carolina Panthers, where Bradford was able to manipulate All Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly with his eyes to open up the passing lane for Miles Austin:

That is not something we saw from Bradford through the first six weeks of the year.

It carried over and became even more frequent against the Cowboys.

Early in the game, the Eagles were faced with a third and long deep inside their own territory. Watch Bradford’s head before he throws the ball to Miles Austin for a first down:

Now look at what that action did to the single high safety, who follows Bradford’s eyes to the other side of the field which opens up things for Austin:

When I see things like this happening on a more frequent basis, it tells me that Bradford is starting to get a better understanding of the offense. He is growing more confident in what each play on offense calls for, and is starting to recognize how certain route concepts within this offense work against specific defenses. This is, without question, an encouraging sign.

The last thing I am seeing from Bradford is an increase in the frequency with which he is delivering accurate passes. In the preseason, players and coaches raved about Bradford’s ability to put the ball in the exact location that it needed to be, which gave receivers the opportunity to make plays after the catch. That accuracy was on full display against the Green Bay Packers in a performance that got most Eagles fans dreaming of playing in Phoenix in February.

But as I covered before, Bradford struggled to replicate that accuracy when he was under pressure in real game situations, an issue that has plagued Bradford throughout his career.

Over these last two games, however, Bradford has shown significant strides in his ability to deliver the ball accurately under pressure.

In the fourth quarter, Bradford threw, at least in my opinion, one of his most accurate passes of the year, a 20+ yard strike to Zach Ertz who was streaking along the sideline in single coverage:

If you look at the tail end of that play, you will see that Bradford is not operating with a clean pocket. David Irving (#95) is pushing Matt Tobin back and able to get in Bradford’s face. Yet, Bradford was able to deliver a strike to Ertz, who was blanketed by a defender:

Now, I wouldn’t start planning parades down Broad Street or clamoring for Kelly to resign Bradford to a contract extension just yet. Bradford struggled yet again in the first half, completing only 10 of 18 passes for 74 yards and zero touchdowns, before rebounding in the second half completing 15 of 18 passes for 221 yards and a touchdown.

This continues a troubling trend from the quarterback, who has completed 55.3 percent of his passes for 821 yards, three touchdowns, five interceptions for a 62.9 quarterback rating in the first half, compared to completing 68.7 percent of his passes for 1,240 yards, seven touchdowns, five interceptions and a 95.4 rating in the second half.

If the Eagles are going to have any chance of competing for the NFC East and making a run in the playoffs, Bradford will need to play more consistently. But we are starting to see signs of incremental improvement; which is encouraging to say the least.

We cannot cover the passing game without also spending some time giving love to Jordan Matthews for his performance Sunday. The stat line was sensational: 9 catches, 133 yards, 1 touchdown and ZERO drops.

We read all during the bye week that Matthews was hard at work at his alma matter, Vanderbilt University, trying to correct the issues that plagued him. But my favorite anecdote from this past week came after Matthews dropped a pass during a Thursday practice. Courtesy of Mark Eckel of NJ.com:

“You can’t say enough about the way Jordan worked this week in practice,” quarterback Sam Bradford said. “I don’t know if I’ve ever seen anyone work as hard as he did.

“It was Thursday and he dropped a pass in a red zone drill. He stayed out there and took every snap to make up for it. He never came off the field. When he wasn’t running with the ones; he was on the scout team. I’ve never seen a starting receiver do that before. He just wanted to work at it. He’s relentless.”

It is this type of effort that makes Matthews so easy to root for. He is humble, hard working, and a team first guy. In other words, he embodies exactly the type of player that Chip Kelly wants on this roster. So it was great to see him break out of his slump.

Chip Kelly deserves credit for helping Matthews with some crafty play calling. During the game, the Eagles kept hitting Matthews over the middle with crossing routes. It is a staple of Kelly’s offense and allows Bradford to hit Matthews in stride for easy YAC opportunities.

But Kelly noticed that the Cowboys were jumping the route, so he called the perfectly timed inside-out double move, which played off the Cowboys’ over-aggressiveness:

While the lack of drops and big numbers were impressive, so to was Matthews route running. Here is a better angle, watch how he is able to turn the defender around with ease:

Does this play look familiar? It should, because it was the same play that the Eagles ran in overtime to win the game. Here you can see Matthews running the same route (albeit from very high above):

Here is somewhat of a better angle from the All-22:

The Eagles have to be encouraged by Matthews breakout game, but he cannot do it alone. Zach Ertz has been effective when thrown to, but needs to see more targets (he received only 6 against Dallas).

And Nelson Agholor, who has been hampered by a high ankle sprain, needs to validate his high draft position. The Eagles cannot continue to roll out Miles Austin in the starting lineup. Getting Agholor up to speed will give the Eagles a viable outside threat so the team can spread the field vertically.

And of course, the Eagles need to feed Darren Sproles more. Over the last four games, he has averaged only six (!) touches per game. That is a ridiculous mismanagement of talent by the Eagles coaching staff. There is no reason that Sproles cannot get 10-15 touches a game. He is an obvious mismatch for opposing defenses, and the Eagles are limiting their offense by keeping him on the sidelines.

With all that said, there are signs of improvement. With Bradford gaining confidence, Matthews (hopefully) putting the drop issue behind him, and Agholor finally healthy, perhaps the Eagles can start to get more consistent production from their passing attack.

Note: This is a three-part series analyzing the Eagles. You can continue reading by going to part three here. Or, you can go back to part one, where I analyze the run game, by clicking here.

Patrick Causey, on Twitter @pcausey3

Two camps exist within the Philadelphia Eagles fanbase right now.

The first camp believes that this team is too inconsistent to do anything of worth this year. They will point to the fact that the Eagles gained only 91 yards in the first three quarters of the game outside of their two touchdown drives. They will also point to the inconsistent quarterback, the dearth of talent at wide receiver, and the defense’s frustrating habit of giving up third and long plays.

The other camp looks at the Eagles as a team that has improved incrementally as the year has progressed and has put themselves in position to be the favorites to win the NFC East. They will point to Sam Bradford’s improvement running the offense, a run game which has quietly become dominant over the last four weeks, and the breakout game of Jordan Matthews.

Truth be told, I cannot decide which camp I fall in because I cannot ignore the valid points of both sides. The Eagles offense has been maddeningly inconsistent at times, but looks unstoppable at others. Perhaps that is why this team is 4-4?

So this is my hot take conclusion of where the team currently stands:

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s try to figure out where this team stands after the win over the Dallas Cowboys.

After I watch a game live I have little idea of what I want to write about. But then I watch the game tape and look at the numbers and I have 18 different topics I want to cover at once. The struggle is real.

But I cannot address all of the issues with this team, there just isn’t enough time. So I have limited my focus on some big ticket items: the emergence of the run game, the improvement of Sam Bradford, and an easy fix that can be made to help alleviate some of the inconsistencies on offense.

But rather than making you read through a 3,500 word short story, I broke this article up into three articles that can still be read in long form if you so choose:

• Part 1: The Run Game
• Part 2: The Passing Game
• Part 3: How Predictable Play Calling is Contributing to the Inconsistency on Offense, and a Preview of the Eagles Remaining Schedule

Let’s get right to it.

The Run Game

You may not have noticed, but the Eagles have found themselves a running game over the last four weeks. It has largely gone unnoticed because many — including yours truly — have been fixating on whether Ryan Mathews should start over DeMarco Murray. And while I think that is a valid debate worth having, it should not overshadow how effective the Eagles running game has been over the last four weeks.

Here is a chart showing the difference in the Eagles run game in the first four games of the season compared to the last four:

It should come as a surprise to no one that the Eagles were 1-3 in the first four games when they failed to get any semblance of a run game going. (And of course, the one game in which they won during that span — against the Jets —  was in large part thanks to Ryan Mathews kick-starting their run game with an impressive performance.)

It should also not be a surprise that the Eagles have gone 3-1 over the last four games when the Eagles averaged 173.25 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game on the ground. As Chip Kelly has often said, this is a run first offense. And the numbers support that: whenever the Eagles run the ball more than pass, they are 12-2 under Kelly. But when they pass more than run? The Eagles are 11-15.

Now the Dallas game is a bit of a misnomer in that regard, because the Eagles actually passed more (36) than ran the ball (35). So we shouldn’t get caught up fighting over the margins; the main conclusion that we can reach is that the Eagles are a much better football team when they take a balanced approach.

So why did it take Kelly the first four weeks of the season to start running the ball more? There is a bit of a chicken and egg situation here. Kelly clearly called less run plays to start the season than he has over the course of the last four weeks. And an argument can  — and should  — be made that Kelly was too quick to abandon the run at times.

But in Kelly’s defense, watching the Eagles offense line over the first four weeks was like watching a car accident in slow motion. The Eagles routinely blew assignments leading to running backs getting tackled give yards behind the line of scrimmage. The failure to gain any yards on first or second down put the Eagles in third and long situations, which in turn led to an alarming number of drives that ended with a three and out. It was a self-perpetuating problem that hampered this offense’s effectiveness.

Over the last four weeks, however, we have seen the offensive line improve dramatically. One of the reasons is continuity. To start the season, the Eagles rolled out an offensive line that was, for all intents and purposes, brand new: Jason Peters never played next to Allen Barbre, who never played next to Jason Kelce, who never played next to Andrew Gardner, who never played next to Lane Johnson. For a unit that relies so heavily on communication and knowing what the person next to you is doing, the lack of familiarity proved fatal. But with eight games under their belt, the offensive line is clearly more comfortable playing with each other.

Another reason that has largely gone unnoticed is the emergence of Matt Tobin, the player who many thought would take over for Todd Herremans to start the season. If you recall, Andrew Gardner was lost for the year during the Jets game. Since Tobin has been inserted into the starting lineup, the Eagles have gone from averaging 2.71 yards per carry (against the Falcons, Cowboys and Jets) to 5.06 yards per carry (over the remaining games). This is not entirely entirely the result of inserting Tobin into the starting lineup. But we cannot ignore the impact his presence has had along the offensive line, either.

The continuity on the offensive line, and the increased frequency with which Kelly is relying on the run game, helped the Eagles impose their will on the Cowboys’ defense. Indeed, if you were to give Chip Kelly the ability to construct the “perfect drive”, he would be hard pressed to find one better than the first touchdown drive against the Cowboys. That drive captures everything the Eagles want to do philosophically on offense: run often, run fast, and pound the opposing defense into submission.

The Eagles started the drive off with the following plays:

• Murray run for 9 yards;
• Murray run for 3 yards;
• Bradford pass to Murray for 8 yards;
• Murray run for 6 yards;
• Murray run for 3 yards;

Each Murray run was on an inside zone up the middle. With the defense getting gassed and looking to stop the run inside, Kelly unleashed the fresh legs of Ryan Mathews, who beat tired Cowboys’ defenders to the edge for a gain of 21 yards:

The body blows kept coming. Kelly went back to Mathews for a run up the middle and gain of 3 yards, quickly followed by a play-action pass to Jordan Matthews for a gain of 9 yards. This was the Eagles’ fourth first down on the drive, and the Cowboys defenders were spending more time gasping for air than preparing for the next play.

Sensing weakness, Kelly quickly went with a sweep to the outside, letting Mathews use his speed and explosiveness to gash the defense for another 12 yard gain.

To say the Cowboys defense was gassed would be an understatement. The Cowboys were forced to burn a timeout just to get in some fresh legs in the game. But the damage was already done:

Four plays later, the Eagles scored on a DeMarco Murray 1-yard touchdown run. It was an imposing 13 play, 71 yard drive that featured 9 runs to just 4 passes. The drive last four minutes, 12 seconds, which means the Eagles ran a play every 19.38 seconds.

This is the Eagles identity: running roughshod over the defense until it becomes so gassed it either gives up a big play, is forced to burn a timeout, or both. And if they are going to continue their success this year, it will be on the back of DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles.

You can go to part two, which analyzes the passing game, by clicking here. Or, you can skip ahead to part three, which discusses how play calling predictability is contributing to the inconsistent offense, by clicking here.