Patrick Causey, on Twitter @pcausey3

The Eagles hit rock bottom today with one of the worst losses in recent memory. In a critical game that could have put the Eagles in first place of the NFC East, the Eagles didn’t just play poorly, they didn’t even show up.

This game, this performance, this team was an indictment on the Chip Kelly rebuild process that saw him overhaul a roster that went 10-6 in consecutive seasons. Kelly spent the entire offseason getting “his guys” that bought into “his culture,” — and this was the result. 4-6 and unable to take advantage of repeated opportunities to grab the weakened NFC East by the throat.

While I have not bought into the “Fire Chip Kelly” mantra — yet — it is becoming harder to ignore as the bad losses start to pile up. The Eagles loss to the Dolphins seemed like the low point of the Chip Kelly era; up 16-3 on a team that was begging to be put out of their misery, but the Eagles could only muster three points the rest of the way and lost a game they undoubtedly should have won.

But this loss to the Bucs made the Dolphins game look like a walk through the park. Pick any adjective you can think of — pathetic, embarrassing, unprofessional — and it still doesn’t seem strong enough to explain how poorly the Eagles played.

If these losses don’t shaken your resolve in Chip Kelly, then you have the patience of Job.

And while you don’t need me to remind you of how ugly this loss was, here are seven numbers to put this loss in perspective:

72

I understand why Chip Kelly focuses on number of plays run to an extent. But a dogma like adherence to that philosophy can be a fools errand, and today’s game was a prime example of why.

Both the Eagles and Bucs ran 72 plays today. So from that perspective, everything was just peachy. But the Bucs had the ball for almost 36 minutes (35:54) compared to 24:06 for the Eagles. And while the defense played terrible today, the time of possession disparity had to play a factor.

Consider the following drives in order, with time of possession in parenthesis:

• Eagles: 5 plays, 14 yards, punt (1:53)
• Bucs: 5 plays, 75 yards, touchdown (2:55): 7-7
• Eagles: 3 plays, 4 yards, punt (:46)
• Bucs: 5 plays, 59 yards, touchdown (2:09) 14-7
• Eagles: 3 plays, 3 yards, punt (1:11)
• Bucs: 3 plays, 0 yards punt (2:06)
• Eagles: 3 plays, 6 yards, punt (1:30)
• Bucs: 4 plays, 85 yards, touchdown (2:03) 21-7

According to Chip, this sequence was okay: the Eagles ran 14 plays to the Bucs 17. But from a time of possession perspective, the Bucs more than doubled the Eagles: 9:13 to 4:20.

The impact on the Eagles defense was as painful as it was obvious. Yet Chip Kelly did nothing. He did not call a timeout to give his defenders a breather. He did not ask his offense to slow it down despite multiple three and outs. He stuck to his guns, insisting his way was the right way, and it provided the Bucs the opportunity to put the game away before it started.

6.25

Mark Sanchez’s interception rate in five and a half quarters of play. He’s thrown four interceptions on just 64 pass attempts. Obviously, that number is not sustainable and some regression to the mean should be expected. But for a quarterback being given every opportunity to win the starting job, Mark Sanchez has really dropped the ball (or given it away, is probably more appropriate).

5

The number of touchdowns the Eagles gave up to rookie quarterback Jameis Winston. That ties the NFL record for most touchdown passes thrown by a rookie, and was equal to half of the touchdowns Winston had thrown all year prior to today.

521

The total yards the Eagles allowed today, the fifth most they’ve ever allowed at home. 283 of those yards were allowed on the ground, where Doug Martin absolutely eviscerated the Eagles once vaunted run defense, running 27 times for 235 yards.

5-9

The Eagles record over the last 14 games, which is why it is wrong to lay all of the blame for this season on Chip Kelly the general manager. These issues started last year — the chemistry problems, the mistakes, the three and outs — but they became an afterthought after this crazy offseason. Despite overhauling the roster, the results are largely still the same, and arguably even worse. Chip Kelly better figure out a way to fix these issues, or his tenure as the head coach and head of player personnel could be over sooner rather than later.

2

The number of times Eagles players (in this instance, Malcolm Jenkins and Connor Barwin) dropped interceptions. On the very next play, the Bucs scored touchdowns. We always hear that football is a game of inches, and these plays certainly lend credence to that theory.

10-16

That was the Bucs third down conversion rate. The Bucs also went 1-1 converting fourth downs. It was comically bad at times, with the Eagles giving up multiple third and longs. I’ll be interested to see Eric Rowe’s snap count for today’s game. We heard a lot about him getting more reps today, but I did not see him much. And that was despite E.J. Biggers getting beaten — repeatedly — on multiple third and longs.

3

Speaking of bad secondary play, Nolan Carroll gave up three touchdown passes today. On two of those passes, Carroll gave large receivers — Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson — free releases at the line of scrimmage. It was a curious decision for a team that likes to play press man coverage. Again, Eric Rowe cannot get in the field for this guy? And to think, the Eagles traded multiple picks to move up and get Rowe.

Final Word

A final word on the state of the quarterback play. It is abundantly clear that the Eagles do not have the long term solution at the quarterback position on their roster. That doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out.

And anyone using this game to pound their chest about Sam Bradford would be sadly mistaken. As Brent pointed out during the game:

Add to it Bradford’s significant injury history, and do you honestly feel comfortable committing the $15-18 million per over the next 3-4 years that it would take to sign him? I know I wouldn’t.

(And before you say that is an insane valuation, remember that Jay Cutler signed a seven year $126 million contract ($18 mil/year), and Colin Kaepernick signed a six year $114 million contract ($19 mil/year)).

I don’t want to short shrift this analysis; I plan on getting a post up later this week that puts into proper context what we need to obtain to make the quarterback position work. But the easy conclusion here is the Eagles have a huge hole at the most important position in football, with no easy solutions in sight.

Patrick Causey, on Twitter @pcausey3

The Philadelphia Eagles face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 1 pm at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles are 5.5 to 7 point favorites over the Bucs depending on which site you use, with the line set 44.5 points, which suggests a lower scoring affair.

Full disclosure, I am expecting another frustrating game from the Eagles. This entire season has been predicated on slow first halves followed by the Eagles coming alive in the second. Last Sunday, the Eagles flipped the script, starting strong with a 16-3 lead at the end of the first quarter — sucking us into believing the team had finally turned the corner — only to score three points the rest of the way.

At this point, I think it is time we accept the fact that there won’t be a flipped switch, magical spark, or “aha” moment that turns this season around. 10 weeks into the season, this is who the Eagles are, and they aren’t very good. The only reason they are still relevant is because the rest of the NFC East has been terrible. But that should not change the fact that the Eagles are a bad team. And bad teams don’t tend to turn it around midseason.

But I digress. Let’s breakdown the game and focus on some of the key matchups that will go a long way towards determining its outcome.

Big Picture on the Bucs:

A few weeks ago, this game seemed like a lock on paper. The Eagles had just come off a solid win against their division rival, Dallas Cowboys, and Sam Bradford was starting to look like a competent starting quarterback. But Bradford is now hurt and the Eagles laid an egg against the Dolphins.

To make matters worse, while the Bucs are 4-5, they are playing with newfound confidence on both sides of the ball. Led by rookie quarterback Jameis Winston — who looks every bit the part of a franchise caliber quarterback — the Bucs find themselves winners of three of their last five games.

The Bucs defense was a train wreck during the first six weeks of the year, but has turned things around over the last two weeks. And while they have allowed the sixth most total yards on the year, they are one of the top run defenses in the league, ranking second overall by limiting teams to only 3.4 yards per carry.

The Bucs have lowered their passing yards allowed per game from 243 to 233, thanks to impressive efforts against the Cowboys (186 passing yards) and Giants (243) the last two weeks. During that time, the Bucs have switched cornerbacks to Sterling Moore and undrafted rookie Jude Adjei-Barimah. While neither have been spectacular, they have cut down on the mistakes that were allowing too many big plays earlier in the year.

On offense, the Bucs take a balanced approach (53/47 pass to run ratio), but still rely on the run game to set the tone. Doug Marin is fifth in the league in carries and rushing yards, with 161 carries for 706 yards. Charles Sims has been an effective second option for the Bucs, with 66 carries for 302 yards (4.6 ypc) and 22 catches for 251 yards (11.4 ypc). The offense has been stagnant over the last three games, scoring four touchdowns, three of which came on runs from Jameis Winston. But the offense should get a boost today with Vincent Jackson reportedly playing:

Here are some of the key matchups for today’s game:

Eagles Interior Line Against Gerald McCoy

Gerald McCoy often gets lost in the discussion of best defensive tackles in football because the Bucs have largely been irrelevant over the last three plus season. But make no mistake, McCoy is a dominant force up front that could pose a significant challenge to the Eagles underwhelming offensive line, much like Ndamukong Suh did last week.

While I generally avoid PFF.com’s ranking systems, this is the easiest way to show you what I mean instead of just saying “take my word for it.” Below is a chart showing McCoy’s ranking according to PFF.com for defensive tackles in the league compared to Suh:

Again, take these numbers with a grain of salt. I think Suh has been the better player over the last four seasons, but this should give you an understanding of how good McCoy has been. And while McCoy’s play has regressed somewhat this year, don’t let the number 25 ranking fool you, he’s not playing nearly that bad.

Simply put, McCoy is a menace up front, and should pose a significant issue for the Birds. And their offensive line is going to need to improve significantly from last week in order to accomplish anything on offense.

Eagles Offensive Line Generally and in Blitz Pickup

All week we heard that Jason Peters was going to play. But that is looking less certain now, according to NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport:

Losing Peters would obviously be a huge blow to the Eagles, as it would force Lane Johnson to kick out to left tackle and reserve lineman Dennis Kelly — who was absolutely brutal against the Dolphins — to start at right tackle.

At this point, most Eagles fans should be cursing Kelly’s decision to not address the offensive line in each of the last two offseasons. And while I will concede that it is hard for any team to recover from losing two starters to the offensive line, the Eagles were already starting two backup lineman in Allen Barbre and Andrew Gardner. In essence, the Eagles are on their third and fourth reserve lineman with Matt Tobin and Dennis Kelly, and it is starting to show.

Last week Kelly made the mistake of not giving the offensive line any help despite their struggles. Kelly should not make that mistake this week. The Bucs have a very good front seven that likes to blitz often. The Eagles need to have Celek and Murray/Sproles help provide Sanchez extra time with which to operate. Otherwise, it could be another long, frustrating day for the offense.

Sticking with the Run

Another major issue for the Eagles today will be getting the ground game going. With the Eagles most effective runner — Ryan Mathews — out today, the onus will fall on DeMarco Murray and Darren Sproles to carry the load.

However, the question becomes just how much of an opportunity they will receive. Chip Kelly has shown a tendency to give up on the run game if he sees a decided advantage in the passing attack and/or if the opposing defense is stout against the run. During the first four games of the year, the Eagles averaged only 22.75 carries per game when the offensive line could not run block to save its life.

The Bucs enter this game with the fourth ranked rush defense per FootballOutsiders.com, rank third in allowing only 3.4 yards per carry, and are ranked 10th overall in rushing yards allowed.

The temptation might be there for the Eagles to go for a pass heavy attack. In fact, I largely expect it. But it would be a mistake. As I’ve discussed at length, the Eagles are a much better team when they take a balanced approach. But more importantly, we cannot rely on Mark Sanchez to win this game throwing the football. Asking a quarterback with a 3.8 career interception rate to win the game throwing the football seems like a recipe for disaster. Especially given that his first five drives this year from Sanchez ended with a field goal, an interception, two punts and a turnover on downs.

Stopping the big receivers 

As I mentioned before, Vincent Jackson will be playing today according to ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter. Jackson, at 6’5 230 lbs, will be joined by second year wideout, Mike Evans, who is also 6’5, 231 pounds. On the year, Evans has 40 catches for 662 yards, 16.6 yards per catch, and 1 touchdown. While Evans has been inconsistent this year, leading the NFL in dropped passes with 11, he is still a dynamic receiving threat, especially in the redzone.

This receiving duo will challenge the Eagles secondary. Neither receiver is a burner, but both have good size and are great at high pointing the ball (i.e. catching the ball at its peak). While the Eagles have valued size in their secondary, both Maxwell and Carroll are 6’1, giving the Bucs receivers a four-inch height advantage.

As I mentioned earlier on Twitter, expect to see a lot of jump balls and back shoulder throws today from the Bucs:

https://twitter.com/InsdeTheHuddle/status/668381883483463681

Forcing Turnovers from Winston

Last week’s final drive against the Dallas Cowboys perfectly encapsulates the season Jameis Winston is having. He engineered a 56-yard drive that ended with Winston scoring a 1-yard touchdown run with 54 seconds left in the game. But that touchdown was made possible only after his lost fumble was negated by a Cowboys penalty.

In other words, Winston is playing like a rookie: great plays one minute, head scratching plays the next. His numbers on the year bear that out: Winston has completed 57.% of his passes for 2,159 yards, 10 touchdowns, 9 interceptions and a quarterback rating of 80.1.

Again, nothing to fear, but given that Winson is a rookie, those numbers are actually fairly good.

The Eagles need to disguise their blitzes and coverages to confuse Winston and hopefully force him into turnovers. He had gone four consecutive games without a turnover until last week when he tossed two interceptions. The good news for the Eagles is that forcing turnovers is their specialty: they are tied for second in the NFL with 20 total takeaways.

One final thought on Winston before my ill-advised prediction.

This game has the makings of being a close, and probably ugly contest. If the Eagles have a chance to put the Bucs away early on, they need to seize that opportunity. That means scoring touchdowns instead of field goals (or worse, redzone turnovers, cough, Mark Sanchez).

Because if there is one thing I have learned watching Jameis Winston closely over the last three years, it’s that no game is out of reach when he plays. I know that sounds silly to say about a rookie quarterback, but Winston just has that “it” factor. He led his first career NFL comeback victory last week, which is something he did routinely in college. Don’t give him that chance this week.

Conclusion

As you can probably tell by the tenure of this article, I do not feel good about this game. I would feel better if Peters was playing, but signs are pointing to him missing his third straight game. Given how bad the offensive line played last week, and how good the Bucs front seven is playing, I see Eagles dropping this game 24-17.