Historical Success Chart

Just one more day until the draft, and if I’m keeping track correctly, the Eagles are going to: Trade down or take Geno Smith, Dion Jordan, Star Lotulelei, Eric Fisher, Tavon Austin, or Barkevious Mingo….

So basically nobody has any clue what Howie actually wants to do.  Tomorrow I’ll venture a guess as to what the team’s preferred strategy is and what to watch for.

For today, I’ve revised the historical odds by position chart and included it below for reference during the draft:

Screen Shot 2013-04-24 at 11.38.32 AM

Click to enlarge if it’s too difficult to read.  There aren’t many huge changes since the last version, but I did go through and reclassify the positions for a lot of players, so you will notice some differences.

Remember this is for all players drafted from 1999-2011, and to count as a “starter” a player must have either started for 5 seasons in the league (as defined by Pro-football-reference.com) OR, if they have not been in the league for 5 years, must have started for at least half their careers.

Also, I split up CBs and Ss for the first two rounds (in the previous version I only had DBs), though their success rates are so similar it really doesn’t tell us much.

For the first round, I wouldn’t get too hung up on the odds chart, other than to say I would NEVER take a RB in the first round.  The chart becomes more useful as we move later in the draft.

Also, the record for 2nd round QB’s is terrible, and I expect to see at least 2 taken in that round this year.

That’s all for today.  I’ve given you several useful (hopefully) resources for this weekend.  With this chart, the positional rankings illustrations, and the TPR prospect rankings, you should be all set.

 

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2 thoughts on “Historical Success Chart

  1. Chart screams not to take a otackle at 4, especially in this draft that is known as a deep draft. If anything it screams take Dion Jordan LB because the drop off from landing a potential probowler from rd 1 to 2 is HUGE.

    • Well I agree with you on the OT comment. Can definitely find a starting quality tackle later on. Jordan’s not a bad pick based on this chart, but keep in in mind that the % of pro bowlers drops significantly for EVERY position after round one. The samples aren’t huge, so its less about the specific %s than it is about the relative differences.

      On Thu, Apr 25, 2013 at 3:37 PM, Eagles Rewind

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