http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/philadelphia-eagles-owner-jeffery-lurie-talks-to-general-news-photo/454304670

Patrick Causey, on Twitter @pcausey3

I’m writing this post in-between chasing two sick toddlers around, so it won’t be the most coherent article I’ve written. But I wanted to get some thoughts down on the Chip Kelly move and what it means for the Eagles franchise moving forward.

Kelly the GM Played a Huge Role in This

I was against vesting this much power in Chip Kelly from the start (read here), because giving a head coach this much control rarely works out, especially when that coach is an NFL neophyte. As I wrote back in January, for every Bill Belichick, there are 10+ coaches that could not handle the joint responsibility of building the team and coaching it.

My concern became exasperated when Kelly’s personnel moves started rivaling those made by the Daniel Snyder led Washington Redskins of the early and mid 2000s. Paying DeMarco Murray and Byron Maxwell like top five players in their respective positions were mistakes before the ink dried on their contracts. Murray was an aging running back (yes, 27 is old for a RB) coming off a historic usage rate. Maxwell was a good number two option at cornerback whose physical limitations were masked by playing along side three All Pros in the secondary. Expecting them to validate their contracts was a fool’s errand. Not resigning Jeremy Maclin, trading LeSean McCoy for Kiko Alonso, and signing Miles Austin, all hastened Kelly’s departure from the Birds.

The moves that he did not make to shore up the interior of the offensive line — for nearly three damn seasons — proved to be especially problematic. For an offense predicated on establishing the inside zone run, relying on two career backup guards seemed like managerial malpractice.

But perhaps Kelly’s biggest mistake was his misallocation of resources. To Kelly’s credit, he used some of the limited resources at his disposal to address holes on the team: quarterback and the secondary, primarily. But Kelly created new holes at wide receiver and running back and filled them with substandard parts. By focusing on areas of strength, it robbed him of the opportunity to shore up the offensive line. The net effect of this misguided approach was a team going from 20-12 to 6-10 or 7-9, and was a chief reason for Kelly no longer being in charge of the Eagles.

But Kelly the Coach and Person also Played a Part in His Demise

Tommy Lawlor was prophetic this morning when he discussed how Kelly failed to build sustainable relationships inside the NovaCare complex, a critical but often overlooked aspect of coaching. That view was confirmed by Jeffrey Lurie, who took a thinly veiled shot at Kelly for failing on the interpersonal relationship front, not only with his team, but also the city:

https://twitter.com/InsdeTheHuddle/status/682258890172559360

In a sad twist of irony, the coach that obsessed over building and maintaining a positive culture failed to grasp his central role in fostering it.

And of course, Kelly failed on the X’s and O’s at times as well. He never got away from his constant pace on offense, which led to too many mental errors and wore down his defense. And in his effort to simplify the offense for Bradford — who was still recovering from knee surgery and learning the Eagles system — he became too predictable. Gone were the days Kelly’s phrenetic pace was married with packaged plays to create an offense that seemed destined for greatness. As Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com (formerly Grantland.com) described following Kelly’s debut win over the Washington Redskins three year’s ago:

“Those packaged plays represent the newest form of option football. The Eagles aren’t just running the read-option like Washington did a year ago. They’re running the read-option, plus a bubble screen on the outside, plus a stick route up the seam, and they’re doing it all on the same play. Naysayers and read-option doom-mongerers miss the point; even if there was some simple way to defeat the read-option (and there’s not), all you would accomplish in doing that would be to open up advantageous situations for the receivers on the outside of the field. You can try and try and try to stop everything in these situations, but you’re going to find it awfully difficult to stop three plays at once if you don’t know what’s coming.”

The over simplification of his offense, coupled with his player personnel mistakes, had a ripple down effect on the entire offense. Unable to establish the inside zone run — the one area DeMarco Murray was supposed to excel — the Eagles became far too lateral in their rushing attack. And the passing concepts became boiled down to the simplest terms, with Kelly abandoning packaged plays in order to make things easier on Bradford. The scaled down attack created easy pickings for defensive coordinators, and Kelly did not have enough talent to adjust thanks to his personnel blunders .

Had Kelly adjusted in time — slowed the hell down, expanded the playbook, adjusted his play calling and formations — it might have changed the outcome of the Eagles season. He didn’t. At least not fast enough for his players or Lurie. So here we are.

With that said, I would not have fired Kelly

It is hard to say with any degree of certainty that Lurie made a mistake firing Chip Kelly because it is impossible to know what truly was going on inside the NovaCare Complex. Yes, stories are trickling out that Kelly was a benevolent dictator. But these stories should be taken with a giant grain of salt, because they provide executives and players a convenient excuse for not holding up their end of the bargain. So without that firsthand account, we are left to draw imperfect conclusions based on imperfect information.

But that said, this just feels like the wrong decision. Yes, Kelly had an ego the size of Texas and was difficult to deal with. But name me one NFL coach who isn’t.

Tom Coughlin was nicknamed “Tyrannical Tom” because he was controlling, hypercritical and had arbitrary requirements like making players wear suits on game day, keep short haircuts, and arrive five minutes early to meetings.

Bill Belichick had alienated the veteran players, the hyper-loyal fans, and the media in Cleveland because of his smugness and inability to connect. Upon firing Belichick, Art Modell said he might have stayed in Cleveland if he had never hired Bellichick: “I was sold a bill of goods on Belichick. To Bill, everything was like the Normandy invasion. I couldn’t talk to him during practice because he was coaching. I really believe that much of the disdain and abuse I received was because of the feelings the media and the public had for Bill. Every day I thought it would change, that he would be more pleasant to people. He never did and it hurt all of us terribly.”

Josh McDaniels, the Patriots offensive coordinator being linked to the Eagles by some, had an oversized ego that made Chip Kelly look like Mother Theresa. Consider this story from former Broncos general manager Ted Sundquist:

“Shortly after Josh McDaniels moved into his office at Dove Valley, he called in Cutler and his agent, Bus Cook, for a closed-door meeting. The story goes that McDaniels began with a 20-minute dissertation of his resume, how he’d worked his way up the ranks in New England to become Bill Belichick‘s right-hand man with the offense and how the team would have been nowhere the year before without his tutelage of backup Matt Cassel. He continued on with justification of his hiring by Bowlen. 

After the perplexing recitation of accomplishments, McDaniels suddenly shifted gears.

He began to bash and berate Cutler and his game to the tune of a verbal flogging neither had ever witnessed. The expletive-laden diatribe went on for a few minutes, after which Cook stood up and told Cutler they were leaving. As they walked down the long hallway past Bowlen’s office, Cutler turned to Bus and said, “Get me out of here. I don’t care how you do it.”

Boiled down, every coach has flaws. The most successful ones are able to overcome their flaws and succeed despite them. And once the coach starts winning, the ego — which was so problematic during dire times — becomes much more bearable.

While Kelly did not adjust quickly enough this year, I thought he deserved at least one season to prove that he was capable of adjusting. Because make no mistake, Chip Kelly was a good coach. Winning 20 games in your first two years is not an easy thing to do, especially when you do not have a franchise caliber quarterback.

And while this season was undoubtedly a disappointment, Kelly’s record in his first three seasons compared favorably to NFL coaching greats:

• Chip Kelly: 26-21
• Sean Payton: 25-23
• Bill Belichick: 20-28
• Chuck Noll: 12-30
• Pete Carroll: 25-23

Obviously, winning 26 games in his first three years does not mean that Kelly will turn out better than these coaches. But finding a head coach capable of enjoying the level of success that Kelly achieved is no small order. And the Eagles kicked him to the curb without affording him the opportunity to learn from his mistakes.

Firing Chip Kelly wasn’t the only option available. While it might not have been accepted, or even preferred, Lurie could have offered Kelly the opportunity to stay on as head coach without the personnel control. Or, he could have brought in a senior advisor much like the Sixers did with Jerry Colangelo. He could have at least tried these things before pulling the trigger. But Lurie acknowledged that he did neither of those things,  and only time will tell if he was right.

From my perspective, it seems that Lurie’s desperation to win a Super Bowl and refusal to part ways with Roseman is leading to rash decisions. And firing Chip Kelly three years in is chief among them.

Lurie should have fired Roseman

Speaking of which, if Lurie was intent on cleaning house, he should have fired Howie Roseman as well. Instead, he is putting Roseman back in charge of the personnel department, albeit under a loosely defined structure that requires more collaboration.

https://twitter.com/InsdeTheHuddle/status/682257342507921408

Looking back over Roseman’s track record as GM yields a mix bag of results. He had a role — albeit an undefined one — in the disastrous 2010 and 2011 drafts. But he also played a large part in the 2012 and 2013 drafts, which were resounding successes by most measures. And as a friend of the blog @sunset_shazz stated yesterday:

But my issue with Roseman is not so much his track record in selecting and acquiring players. Limiting your focus only on that half of the equation ignores the critical role that fostering a stable and healthy environment in the front office plays in the success of an NFL franchise. In other words, it would be like judging Kelly solely on his wins and loses and not his ability to connect with his players.

Both elements are important, and it is becoming harder to ignore that Roseman utterly fails in the latter regard. As Mark Eckel of NJ.com reported, Kelly played a key roll in Kelly’s firing: “According to several league sources, the firings have Roseman’s fingerprints all over it…“I can’t believe it,” a long-time executive for an Eagles rival said when told of Kelly’s firing. “They did what? Are you serious? No, you’re kidding right? You can’t be serious.” When he finally realized it wasn’t a joke, he put the onus on the former and probably future general manager. “Howie got him,” the executive said. “He won. It took him some time, but he got to the owner, and he won. That’s just amazing. What is Lurie thinking? That place is just out of control.”

Kelly and Marynowitz join a long list of executives and coaches shown the door after clashing with Roseman: Reid, Banner, Louis Riddick, Tom Gamble, to name a few. According to a report from CSNPhilly’s Reuben Frank, this is because Lurie sees Roseman as “a messiah” who “can do no wrong.” Add to it the comments from Louis Riddick, who lambasted Roseman for creating a “toxic environment” inside the NovaCare Complex, and it is easy to see why the Eagles have had such a hard time sustaining any modicum of consistency since Roseman has ascended to power.

Suffice it to say, unless and until Roseman is removed from there, permanently, we should expect more of the same turmoil with the Eagles.

Finding a New Coach Won’t be easy

I talked about this on Twitter earlier this morning, but the Eagles are a less than attractive option right now for top head coaching candidates. Consider the following:

• The quarterback position is a mess;
• The aforementioned Howie Roseman front-office drama;
• They lack a second round pick;
• Their cap situation is less than ideal, with significant money owed to Byron Maxwell and DeMarco Murray next year; and
• They will likely be competing with the following openings, all of whom have good quarterbacks in place: Titans (Mariota), Colts (Luck), Chargers (Rivers), Giants (Manning).

Add all of this up, and I will not be shocked if the Eagles are left standing at the alter by their preferred coaching candidate. Right now, the Eagles just aren’t an attractive destination, and that fact is made worse by the other, likely more desirable jobs that are available.

Do not expect Bradford back

A final thought: if Kelly was staying with the Eagles, I thought there was an 85% chance that Sam Bradford would be back next season as well. Kelly invested heavily to acquire Bradford, and spoke glowingly of his quarterback’s progress over the last few weeks.

But now? The waters are completely muddy on this issue.

Like Kelly, the new coach might be enamored with Bradford’s skill set. He might look around the league, see a dearth of quality options in free agency and the draft, and decide to re-sign Bradford until he can draft his guy.

But new coaches in the NFL are notorious for bringing in “their guys” (no, Kelly wasn’t the only coach who abided by this philosophy), and that usually starts at the quarterback position. And with the Eagles teetering close to a top 10 pick, I think there is a good chance that we see Bradford plying his trade somewhere else (Houston? Cleveland? San Francisco?), and the Eagles turning to the draft to solidify the quarterback position.

And while I still need more time to go through the tape of quarterback prospects, one name to keep an eye on is California’s Jared Goff. He has struggled at times this season with his consistency, but he is also capable of turning in eye-popping performances, like his 6 touchdown game in a win over the Air Force:

But I digress. We can talk quarterback later. For now, we are left wondering if Lurie made the right move. And what could have been if Kelly was given more of an opportunity to succeed.

Well, shit.

I did not see that coming. When Adam Caplan tweeted a couple of days ago to not assume Chip Kelly would be back, that made sense. I assumed Jeffery Lurie would be doing some due diligence through back channels to get some perspective. Taking stock of the team after a tough year would be the prudent decision. Talk to people who are well plugged in to see who could be available and could have interest. Jeffery Lurie has a reputation as a good owner because he seems to know what he doesn’t know. Yet here we sit, only a couple of days later, and everything has changed. This moment serves as an interesting Rorschach test of sorts. So I’m going to provide my analysis on where the Eagles are and where things are going to go from here.

When I set out to write my post about this week the central theme was going to be flawed but fixable. Herm Edwards has an adage “There are about 25 plays a year that make the difference between being 10-6 and 6-10.” http://www.montereyherald.com/article/NF/20151021/SPORTS/151029951 Most teams fall somewhere in this meaty part of the bell curve. Think about that for a second. Variance on right around 1% of the snaps a team plays over the course of an NFL season is the difference between a good year and a bad one. Going to the playoffs or getting fired. Things are going to be very different now. A rebuilding year or two looms.

It’s lazy and at best misleading to say the 2015 Eagles failed because they weren’t talented and had bad schemes. All NFL teams are flawed. That’s a byproduct (or desired effect if you’re more cynical) of a hard salary cap. Even the best teams have half a dozen starters where you just scratch your head and say “sure I guess”. All offensive and defensive schemes are flawed. You beat cover two by attacking the hole between the corner and safety. You beat option attacks by loading the box and maintaining leverage, forcing them to throw.

The 2015 iteration of the Eagles failed because their areas of strengths were not able to patch over the holes, or in some cases gave out themselves, like a building breaking piece by piece. The additional strains of each successive failure causing more pieces give out.

The offensive line was going to have two JAGs at guard. That isn’t as disastrous as it’s made out to be. The Shanahan/Kubiak school of zone blocking has always made due with marginal talent at the position and thrived due to strong cohesion. Also you were going to have Peters, Kelce, and Johnson bookending them. Except Peters has been visited by father time and health and is no longer a starting LT in this league, Lane battled a myriad of injuries and didn’t take the next step in his progression, and Kelce had the inverse of a career year. Add in the fact that there were stretches where basic principles of zone blocking escaped them and suddenly a situation which should have been ok became bad.

Not even a lick of common sense to be found anywhere. None of these are physical limitations.

Suddenly without the ability to run inside zone, the fundamental building block of the scheme, Chip struggled to find answers to fix the ailing run game. That would have been ok, but he had a QB new to the system coming off injury that wasn’t prepared to handle having to shoulder the burden of carrying the offense. The run game finally got on track somewhere around the Jets game and was solid for a stretch, but then the receiving corps decided they really weren’t all that into catching the ball. Add in lots of untimely penalties, and pass blocking that faded as Peters got hurt and became ineffective, and the offense which should have been fine, ate itself.

Outside of a rough opener the defense was pretty darn solid for the first half of the year. Then Jordan Hicks got hurt, forcing a one legged Kiko Alonso back into service, put more burden on an aging Demeco Ryans, and there was another linebacker who wore 95 but we will refer to him as John Doe because he apparently went into witness protection at some point early in the season. The 34 2-gap is designed to get stops on early run downs to force the other team into 2^nd and 3^rd and long. This worked relatively well for 2.5 years. Finally the burden of pace and the lack of ILBs killed the run defense, and the whole thing came unraveled. This would have been ok if we had the 2013 offense and could get into shootouts.

One by one an element of the team broke, until Kirk Cousins yelled “JENGA!” and finally brought the whole thing down for good. No Kirk, I do not particularly like that.

The play the perhaps summarizes the 2015 Eagles better than anything I write can:

Chip. Oh Chip. I come not to bury you, nor to praise you. The GM Chip experiment was bad. Not franchise ruining. But I would have to grade it as a D. The playcalling wasn’t great either. Hopefully Chip finds more people he feels comfortable delegating to at his next stop. He simply felt overwhelmed at times this year. The offensive scheme hasn’t been “figured out” because it’s not a gimmick. It’s just a spread tempo, with a zone running scheme and WCO passing game. I think the most fitting sentiment about Chip would be

https://twitter.com/smartfootball/status/671334127375933440

Chip has stayed largely stagnant in an ever evolving league. How many times did we see packaged plays this year? Like 5? If he’s to be successful at his next stop he needs to take some time off to self scout.

There will be lots of stories in the coming days about Chip is an ass or a weirdo. Some will try to rehash the tired racism claims. NFL head coaches are strange people. Bill Belichick probably isn’t exactly a cup of tea. Noted “players coach” Rex Ryan has had alot of players talk alot of trash about him in the press this year. Bruce Arians isn’t exactly discussing the musical stylings of Lil Boosie with Jon Brown. Winning makes all those types of things go away.

Jeffery Lurie has become much more present in the last month. The firing was pretty uncharacteristic as well. I only hope he isn’t suddenly feeling his age and becoming desperate to win. That historically is the way to become the sucker at the table.

It appears Howie Roseman will be back as GM. He gets a lot of shit from certain crowds. A lot of it is the moronic “he never played so he doesn’t know what he’s doing” crowd. There’s also an uncomfortable amount of anti-semitic dog whistling from some of his detractors. I’m not going to make Howie out to be Ozzie Newsome, Ron Wolf, or Bill Polian he’s a more than capable GM. He excels at valuation both in terms of draft resources and cap management. If he can surround himself with strong evaluators, it can work. The Machiavellian streak is concerning, but for now I can live with it.

The pool of coaching candidates currently underwhelms the soul. Adam Gase headlines this group. He would be a solid hire. Hue Jackson has HC experience and a diverse resume. Josh McDaniels would be a head scratching hire. Replacing Chip with a coach from New England, a reputation for offensive wizardry, an abrasive personality, and a penchant for questionable personnel decisions would be quintessential face-palm. I’m intrigued by Mike Shula. If that name sounds familiar, yes he’s the offspring of Don, and the guy who bequeathed Nick Saban a wholly mediocre Alabama program. But he’s currently running the most exciting (from a football dork standpoint) offense that has overcome many issues with personnel. Sean Payton may or may not become available.

Chip is gone. Howie appears to be back in the picture. Jeffery Lurie may be starting to meddle. A rebuild looms. What a time to be alive.!?

http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/quarterback-sam-bradford-of-the-philadelphia-eagles-throws-news-photo/502140066

Patrick Causey, on Twitter @pcausey3

I have broken down Sam Bradford’s performance twice this season: once after the Eagles win over the New York Jets, and about a month later after the Eagles beat the New York Giants.

After the Eagles win over the Jets, I concluded that Bradford was playing poorly across the board: making bad reads, not letting plays develop, and delivering the ball inaccurately.   After the Giants win, it was clear that Bradford was still struggling in these areas, and also struggled throwing under pressure and maintaining his mechanics. A lot of these issues persisted in St. Louis, which raised doubts about whether it was reasonable to expect Bradford to overcome them. But, with hesitation, I concluded that Bradford deserved more time to develop confidence in his knee and a comfort in the Eagles system.

So now seems like a good time to check back in on Bradford’s development. But before we do, let’s play a guessing game.

Pick which quarterback you want on your team:

https://twitter.com/InsdeTheHuddle/status/679650782413766657

Quarterback B is obviously Sam Bradford’s numbers this year.

Quarterback A? Carson Palmer in 2013, his first season in the Arizona Cardinals’ system.

It is by no means a perfect comparison, as Brian Solomon and Dave Mangels pointed out in our lengthy discussion on Twitter, but it is — to a certain extent — illustrative of the effect learning a new system can have on a quarterback.

Chip Kelly echoed this point a few weeks back, quote courtesy of BleedingGreenNation.com: “I think Sam, as a whole, has progressed as the season has gone along. I know it takes a long while to play quarterback in this league. There’s so many different things you have to get. And when we got Sam, we knew with any quarterback it’s going to take time. Name any quarterback playing at a really high level now and they’ve been playing in the same system for years, not for months. And that’s Sam’s case is. He’s just been playing in our system for months.”

Breaking down the tape over the last three games — with wins over the Patriots and Bills, and a loss to the Cardinals — lends support to Kelly’s point. Without question, last Sunday’s performance against the Arizona Cardinals was his best of the season, which came on the heels of two good — but by no means great — performances against the Bills and Patriots. And while there are still valid questions about why Bradford’s improvement is not translating to more points from the offense (which I plan to address later this week), it is clear that he has improved in the areas I consider most critical for being a successful NFL quarterback: accuracy, throwing under pressure, working through his progressions, manipulating defenses, and operating effectively within the pocket.

Let’s break it down further.

Accuracy

Delivering the football accurately from the pocket is arguably the most important skill a quarterback can posses. When the Eagles acquired Bradford in the offseason, reports emerged that the Eagles coaching staff believed Bradford’s accuracy compared to Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner, while his teammates compared his quick release and accuracy to Aaron Rodgers (chuckle).

But once the games went live, Bradford’s accuracy went out the window. One of the primary issues was Bradford’s faulty mechanics, which led to a lot of passes missing their intended mark:

Of course, Bradford was off by a mile with this throw. The accuracy required to be successful at the NFL level is much more precise than even that.

Consider this throw to Miles Austin (RIP) against the New York Jets:

Bradford needs to lead Austin, but instead throws it a good six inches behind him, which allowed the defender to make the play.

But now, we are starting to see that accuracy in practice and at training camp translate onto the field. Perhaps his best throw of the year came against the Arizona Cardinals, when he delivered the perfect back shoulder throw to Brent Celek:

Here is a better angle:

Against the Buffalo Bills, I thought Bradford’s best pass of the day actually resulted in an interception. No, you read that right, that was not a typo. Bradford’s pass to Brent Celek deep in the red zone was a perfectly thrown pass with enough touch and accuracy to split the linebacker and safety bracketing Celek:

The only problem, of course, is that Celek got outmuscled for the football by a spectacular play from Leodis McKelvin. Of course, we cannot fault Bradford for this — or at least we shouldn’t. It was a great pass and another example of his improved accuracy with the football.

Under pressure

For the majority of Bradford’s career, including the first half of this season, Bradford has struggled to throw under pressure. It was the one achilles heel that I was not sure Bradford could ever get over. Here is a chart showing his numbers throwing under pressure, with the ranks in parentheses:

Bradford’s mechanics are all over the place here: his feet are too far apart, and he shorts his release to get rid of the ball before he is hit. The only problem? He didn’t see the underneath defender, who jumps in front of the softball Bradford just lobbed for an easy interception deep in the Eagles territory.

When I originally wrote this article back in October, Bradford’s numbers were staying true to career form: his 44.6 completion percentage ranked 26th of 31 qualifying quarterbacks, and his 4 touchdowns and interceptions ranked 2nd and 3rd worst overall.

But now? Somewhat amazingly, Bradford ranks 1st overall throwing under pressure according to PFF.com. His 73.9 accuracy percentage (completions + drops counted as catches) ranks first in the NFL. His 56.3 completion percentage ranks 6th. That is a drastic improvement in such a short period of time.

One of his best throws under pressure came on 3rd and 11 with 2:49 left in the game against the Patriots. The Eagles were clinging to a touchdown advantage, but momentum had clearly swung in the Patriots favor..

The safe call here is to run the ball. It likely would have given the Patriots the ball around the 2:00 warning deep in their own territory. But Kelly trusted his quarterback (or didn’t trust his defense to stop Brady…. or both), and the move paid off:

Jason Peters deserves credit for the late block which made the play possible. But watch how Bradford navigates the pocket despite the pressure coming from three different spots to deliver a strike to Cooper for the critical first down. We just weren’t seeing that consistently earlier this year or when Bradford was at St. Louis.

Against the Cardinals, Bradford shined throwing under pressure, completing 9/11 passes, 81.8%, for 1 touchdown and 1 interception. He repeatedly connected with his receivers when the defenders were bearing down on him, especially on third down.

Consider this throw to Josh Huff for a first down with Bradford backed up deep into his own end zone

The Cardinals ran a stunt with their defensive line, springing Marcus Golden free. Kelce was too late and Sproles was unable to get a clean block, giving Golden a free shot on Bradford. But Bradford stepped into his delivery and made an impressive throw to Huff for the first down, 25 yards down the field.

On another third and long, the Cardinals again used a stunt up front to bring pressure on Bradford, but he was able to hit Jordan Matthews for the first down:

Bradford’s injury history is an obvious impediment to a long term deal, or at least it should be. But Bradford’s toughness should not be  in doubt. Despite taking a beating over the last three weeks, he has stood tall in the pocket and delivered accurate throws to his receivers.

Avoiding Checking Down Too Early

Earlier in the year, we discussed how Bradford was checking down far too often, which left the opportunities for big plays on the field. This was a consistent problem throughout Bradford’s career, as the significant majority of Bradford’s passes were less than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage, as you can see from this chart below:

Prior to this year, 70.62% of Bradford’s passes traveled 10 yards or less on his career. While 65% this year isn’t a significant drop, it is an encouraging one, especially when coupled with what we are seeing on the tape.

But let’s take a step back for a minute and look at what we saw from Bradford earlier in the year. Take this simple triangle concept that is a staple of Chip Kelly’s offense. Riley Cooper is running an underneath drag route, Ryan Mathews is running an out route out of the backfield, and Brent Celek is running a corner route.

The route concept is called a triangle route because it gives the quarterback three defined reads to make on the play, all of which form the shape of a triangle.

Watch how quickly Bradford — without being under pressure —  checks down to Mathews here.

Bradford’s inaccurate throw was made worse by Brent Celek breaking wide open on the corner route. Had he held onto the ball for just a hair second longer, he could have connected with Celek for a huge gain:

During his time in St. Louis, Bradford averaged a paltry 6.3 ypa. That number has risen this year to 6.91 ypa; an improvement no doubt, but it still ranks 26th of 35 qualifying quarterbacks, according to ESPN.com.

However, over the last three weeks we are seeing Bradford give his receivers more time to get open to make a play downfield. Not all of them have connected, which explains why Bradford’s ypa remains in the pedestrian range of 7.1 over the last three weeks, per PFF.com.

The most obvious example was the deep touchdown pass to Nelson Agholor against the Buffalo Bills:

Watch how Bradford maneuvers in the pocket while keeping his eyes down field. Here is a closer view:

You might have noticed in that clip that most of the underneath routes were open on this play:

Despite being under pressure and having to navigate the pocket, Bradford did not check down or give up on the play too early, something he likely would have done in the same circumstance earlier this year.

Chip Kelly’s scheme is most effective when he is stretching defenses horizontally and vertically. It prevents defenses from dropping a safety in the box to shutdown the anemic run game and gives the underneath crossing routes more room to breath. Bradford can go a long way towards helping to unclog that congestion by taking even more shots down field.

Manipulating defense

Final good area before touching on a few topics that need to improve. Some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL — Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, to name a few — manipulate defenses with their eyes to create openings in the passing game.

We are starting to see Bradford do the same thing. One of the first times I saw it all year was against the Carolina Panthers, which was around the time that Bradford’s play started to improve overall. Watch as he manipulates All Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly with his eyes to open up the passing lane to Jordan Matthews:

We saw another example with Sam Bradford’s touchdown throw to Zach Ertz against the Cardinals. The Eagles send Cooper, Ertz and Celek on vertical routes, attacking the defenses down the seams. This play puts Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu in a bind: he has to choose whether to provide help on Celek or Ertz.

Bradford focuses on Celek which forces Mathieu to provide help over the top, but Bradford quickly pivots and delivers a strike to Ertz for the touchdown

Here is a close up so you can see how Bradford uses his eyes:

These are one of the traits that separate the mediocre quarterbacks from the very good and great ones. While I am obviously not comfortable putting Bradford in the very good category yet, it is an encouraging sign to see him making these types of plays on a more consistent basis.

Chemistry Still a Concern

It’s not all roses and fairy tales, however. While no quarterback is perfect, Bradford is still struggling checking the ball down too frequently, has made some really poor throws, and he still has a penchant for sailing a pass or two:

But the area that I expected to see more improvement from is the chemistry with his receivers. It’s a weekly occurrence for Bradford to throw to one spot while his receiver is running in another direction.

The biggest culprit is with Darren Sproles, as we saw twice during the loss to the Cardinals:

Sproles sat on the route while Bradford thought he was going to continue running across the formation.

Bradford and Sproles again weren’t on the same page when the Eagles were trying to mount a comeback in the 4th quarter. The miscue provided the final nail in the Eagles coffin:

These types of miscues were understandable — and even expected — earlier in the season. But they are becoming much harder to defend 15 weeks in. While Bradford will undoubtedly benefit from a full offseason to learn this offense — especially if it does not involve rehab — you would expect some of these chemistry issues to be ironed out midseason.

Conclusion

In a league starved for quarterbacks, we should be encouraged by Bradford’s improvement over the last half of the season. That is especially true for the last three weeks, where we have seen Bradford make significant strides in areas that he has struggled consistently with his entire career: delivering accurate throws under pressure, and giving his receivers a chance to make a play down the field. And while I am not on board with locking Bradford up long term — not yet, at least — these last two games could go a long way towards answering that question.

The Arizona Cardinals sit atop the NFC West at (11-2). The Cardinals have gained the most yards from scrimmage, they rank second in points scored. Carson Palmer has the second best passer rating in the league. Their three leading rushers (CJ2k, David Johnson, Andre Ellington) average 4.2, 4.3 and 6.9 yards per carry. The Cardinals have a talented attacking defense, but the offense is loaded.

Everyone knows future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald. John Brown and Michael Floyd are popular fantasy WRs. The return to form for Chris Johnson has been fun to watch. The ascent of David Johnson from Day 3 pick out of Northern Iowa to breakout RB will certainly be discussed on all the pregame shows. So I will not be talking much about these players.

Instead I want to focus on the match up against Arizona’s offensive line, which will be the key factor in determining the outcome of this game. Yes, I’m going to talk about fat people. We have feelings too, jerk.

THE STARTING 5

LT: Jared Veldheer

LG: Mike Iupati

C: Lyle Sendlein

RG: Ted Larsen

RT: Bobby Massie

OVERVIEW:

The Cardinals line has been a mess for a long time. To rectify this Cardinals GM Steve Keim went out and signed Veldheer from the Raiders prior to the 2014 season. This past offseason he made Iupati the second highest paid Guard in football with a 5 year, $40 million contract. Both have played well and helped solidify the OL. Sendlein is super swell in the alliterative name category. He’s been a constant presence in the Cardinals lineup since 2007 (yes he’s been around so long he played in THAT NFC title game). He’s physically unremarkable but a solid experienced vet. Larsen is a journeyman who replaced former 7th overall pick Jonathan Cooper a few weeks ago after Cooper continued to struggle with inconsistent play and injuries. He’s a similar caliber player to Andrew Gardener or Allen Barbre. He won’t kill a line but can be exploited. Massie would probably be best served as a swing tackle and not a starter. He’s the weak link.

RUN GAME:

Somewhat surprisingly the Cardinals run game is at its best when leveraging horizontal blocking concepts or with heavy fronts (60.8% of runs come out of 2 or 3 TE sets) used to create favorable angles with down blocks and pulling OL. For having arguably the best phonebooth guard in the game and a LT who can move people the Cardinals aren’t as formidable when coming straight downhill as one would think.

Wide Left: 28 attempts – 7.9 YPC

Left: 91 attempts – 4.9 YPC

Middle: 114 attempts – 3.2 YPC

Right: 92 attempts – 4.4 YPC

Wide Right: 22 attempts – 5.7 YPC

PASS GAME:

The Cardinals are T-4th for fewest sacks allowed with only 21 given up. However they give up the 6th most overall pressures allowed (sacks+hits+ hurries) something Billy Davis is certainly aware of. The Eagles may not be able to get home but they should be able to harass Palmer.

TAPE TIME!

I expect Connor Barwin to have a big game. Bobbie Massie is prone to bouts of turnstileitis:

Barwin could have a night reminiscint of the Panthers 2014 game against Massie:

Sendlein is susceptible to a good bull rush (paging Bennie Logan)

Veldheer is 6’8. For Graham to be successful he’s going to have to go away from his preferred bullrush and bring back the ragdoll-rip that he used against Tyron Smith in Week 9.

This last one isn’t of particular note but it makes me laugh. Watch the Center…

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEE! Crossed over like Iverson playing Nosetackle.

CONCLUSION:

In order to slow down the prolific Cardinals attack the Eagles must win in several phases. The linebackers need to maintain proper leverage and fill holes against the heavy TE run sets, the DBs have to try to slow down the stable of Arizona WRs. Fletcher Cox will have his hands full against Veldheer and Iupati, so the other members of the defensive front will need to step up. The matchups are there. Time to beat Bruce Arians and his atrocious choice in hats.

FLY EAGLES FLY

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Patrick Causey, on Twitter @pcausey3

Fletcher Cox is having a truly dominant season. But you wouldn’t know that if you just looked at the box score.

The primary reason behind the Eagles 2-0 run was not Sam Bradford, although he played well in both games. It was not the special teams or defensive touchdowns, even though they came up huge against the Patriots. And it was not Kelly’s decision to cut Miles Austin or demote DeMarco Murray, although that certainly did help.

It was Fletcher Cox.

Often overlooked, at least by the national media, Cox has turned in two of the more dominant performances of his career. The Patriots and Bills offensive line tried everything: double teams, chip blocking, heck, even triple teams. It didn’t matter. Cox was a human wrecking ball hell-bent on disrupting the flow of two very good offenses.

It’s why you saw these superlatives all over the internet following the win over the Buffalo Bills:

“Fletcher Cox, he ate my lunch today,” Richie Incognito, who attempted (miserably) to block Cox most of the game.

“That 91 [Fletcher Cox] is a good player. I was laughing when I saw him being compared to Jerome Brown, but I’m not laughing now. The kid is a pretty good player.” Rex Ryan, whose father, Buddy, drafted and coached Jerome Brown in Philadelphia.

“In all my years I’ve only seen one defensive tackle [be a dominant run stopper and pass rusher], and that is Jerome Brown and you’re seeing a lot of those qualities in Fletcher Cox. When he doesn’t want to be blocked, you cannot block him. The guy’s incredible.” Seth Joyner, All-Time Eagles great and teammate of Jerome Brown.

These are just a sample; I could fill an entire post with analysts and other players signing Cox’s praise. It is recognition that is long overdue. While Cox has stepped his game up a notch over the last two weeks, he has been playing at an extremely high level since 2014. But his play was often overlooked by the national media. The Pro Bowl snub last season was just icing on the cake, a criminal omission that served as a harrowing reminder that Cox had yet to get the love his rightfully deserved.

But, given the defensive system in which he plays, it should not be unexpected.

Held Back by a System

Billy Davis deploys a two gap 3-4 defensive system, one which requires the defensive line to cover two gaps at the same time. This is unlike the more traditional 4-3 defensive system which gives lineman one gap responsibilities and more chances to make plays in the backfield.

Below is a shot of the Eagles defensive line presnap with their gap responsibilities. Bennie Logan (96) is in the 0 technique, lined up directly over the center and is responsible for the A gaps (the spaces between the center and guard). Both defensive ends, Fletcher Cox (91) and Cedric Thornton (72) are playing the 5 technique, and are responsible for the B and C gaps, which are located between the guard and tackle and outside of the guard.

The 3-4 defensive line’s job responsibility is to occupy offensive lineman and read and react to the play. The outside linebackers (Graham and Barwin) play contain on the outside — hence why you here Billy Davis and Chip Kelly routinely tout the importance of finding outside backers that excel in run support.

So what does this have to do with Fletcher Cox? Two things. First, Fletcher Cox’s opportunities to make plays are limited by design. The primary playmakers are the inside linebackers, not the defensive line, since they are free from gap responsibilities to make plays as they see fit.

Second, the two gap 3-4 system requires defensive lineman to play with discipline and read and react to the play. That split second of waiting usually limits the opportunities for defensive lineman to make plays in the backfield, which is unlike a traditional 4-3 system which gives lineman one gap responsibility and the opportunity to attack down field more.

Taken out of the football vernacular, this system requires Cox to wait instead of attack and to take one for the team so that Kendricks, Ryans and Alonso can make plays.

Quiet Dominance

Box score analysts could look at Cox’s performance against the New England Patriots and come away unimpressed, given his pedestrian 3 tackles, zero sacks, tackles for a loss, forced fumbles, or batted passes.

But if you watched the tape or dug deeper into the numbers, you would see that Cox turned in a dominating performance, as ProFootballFocus.com pointed out:

To casual fans, pressures or hurries are relatively meaningless stats, or worse, they represent a pass rusherer’s failure to do his job since he didn’t get the sack.

That’s why Billy Davis was laughed at by many when he said the Eagles are more concerned with getting pressure and moving a quarterback off its spot than sack totals. Many panned this as a misguided attempt to explain away his team’s middling pass rush.

But Davis is right. While sacks are critically important, getting pressure on the quarterback is a surefire way to throw an offense off its rhythm.

Consider this: the top completion percentage in NFL right now belongs to (wait for it)….. none other than Kirk Cousins, who completes 69.2% of his passes, per PFF.com. (I know, I am just as shocked as you).

But the highest completion percentage in the NFL drops a full 10 percentage points when measured by quarterbacks throwing under pressure; Matt Ryan completes only 59.1% of his passes, per PFF.com. That would rank 27th out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks in normal passing situations.

Or consider this: the range of passing completion percentage in the NFL is 55% to 69.2%.

But when quarterbacks are under pressure? Those numbers dropped to 35% to 59%.

The proof is in the numbers. Getting pressure on a quarterback and moving him off his spot disrupts the flow of an offense and throws a quarterback off his game. So while the box score suggests Cox was a non-factor, the 14 pressures he generated suggest otherwise.

It’s why the Patriots, seemingly having enough of Cox manhandling their offensive line, eventually resorted to triple teaming Cox:

Malcolm Jenkins’ pick 6 perfectly encapsulates how Fletcher Cox can have a dramatic impact on a play without showing up in the box score. Because the pressure that Cox got on Tom Brady clearly affected his throw, which led to the interception and touchdown:

Cox rarely gets mentioned when this play is discussed. But he deserves credit. Had Brady not been rushed to get rid of the ball so quickly, he likely could have stepped into his throw or scanned the field for other receivers.

Cox was just as dominant against the Buffalo Bills, routinely abusing their offensive line, and in particular, Richie Incognito.

Most people remember this play because Cox shoved McCoy’s face into the turf. And indeed, that single act was the perfect revenge on McCoy on behalf of the entire Eagles franchise and the fans.

But what is most impressive is how quickly Cox explodes through the line, coming almost unblocked. It is reminiscent of Aaron Donald, the St. Louis Rams’ defensive tackle who is getting calls to be the defensive player of the year.

Here is a better angle:

But the most impressive play of the game came when Cox was able to tackle McCoy after a gain of three yards. Wait — what’s impressive about tacking a running back after gaining three yards? Exactly my point.

Watch this play.

Now watch it again and focus on Cox.

As you can see, Cox is double teamed by the left tackle and tight end. He does his job, using one hand to occupy each as the outside zone run works its way towards the sideline. Now watch the lateral quickness of this 6’4, 300 pound man. While double teamed, he is able to beat the much smaller and presumably much faster LeSean McCoy, who is running free, to the sideline.

When it’s time to make a play, he simply manhandles the lineman, tosses the tight end aside like a rag doll, and stops McCoy. All on his own.

As Seth Joyner said, courtesy of CSNPhilly.com’s Reuben Frank: “I ran [that play] back like 10 times [when watching the film]. I’m like that is unheard of. That’s the kind of stuff Reggie White did. Jerome was good but he didn’t do that kind of stuff. To dominate two guys?”

Cox isn’t just brute strength or quickness. He has an impressive array of pass rushing moves that help him to make plays in the backfield. One of his favorites — which we saw on that Malcolm Jenkins pick-6 — is the club move.

The club move is simple, but devastatingly effective.The defensive end punches (clubs) the offensive lineman’s outside arm in order to get the lineman to shift his weight outside, then rips underneath with the defensive lineman’s outside arm and leg, crossing the offensive lineman’s face while he’s shifted outside.

It’s like a crossover in basketball, but with violence.

Cox executed a variation of this move (where he got Incognito going inside only to explode outside) to perfection against Incognito:

Watch how Cox engages with his inside (left) arm to get Incognito going in one direction, then with one quick, violent swing with his outside arm, push Incognito to the side. He uses Incognito’s momentum against him, getting an easy opportunity for a sack. Tyrod Taylor never stood a chance, as the 6’4, 300 lb defensive end uses his 4.79 40 speed to take him down with ease.

The Bills had used tight end Chris Gragg to help double Fletcher Cox on Sunday for a good portion of the game. It was an approach the Bills used against J.J. Watt to great success the previous week, which indicates just how highly the Bills view Cox as a playmaker.

But for some reason, the Bills called a run play which left poor Gragg on an island one-on-one with Cox. The result was as unsurprising as it was enjoyable to watch:

And therein lies the problem that Cox presents to offensive coordinators. It’s a catch-22 for an offensive coordinator: do we use two guys on one, thus putting us at a numbers disadvantage? Or do we try to single up and hope we can somehow limit his effectiveness? At this point in his career, it’s almost like it doesn’t matter.

The All Pro Case

That Fletcher Cox should be voted to his first Pro Bowl is a no brainer. As a 3-4 defensive end, Fletcher Cox is the third highest rated 3-4 defensive end according to ProFootballFocus.com, but is only .4 points behind Mike Daniels of the Green Bay Packers. That ranking should change soon, as Cox is simply a much better playmaker than Daniels, as evidenced by Cox’s 62 pressures (sacks, quarterback hits and hurries) compared to Daniels’ 45.

Indeed, Cox leads all 3-4 defensive ends with 45 quarterback hurries. The next closest player is Muhammad Wilkerson with 38. Daniels is a distant third with 33.

Cox is tied for first overall with 37 tackles, tied for third overall with 7 sacks (an impressive number given his position), tied for sixth overall in quarterback hits, and tied for eight overall in batted passes.

Again, all of this is being accomplished in a 3-4, two gap defensive system that is literally designed to limit a defensive end’s opportunities to make plays.

While I think this is the year that Cox finally gets the Pro Bowl recognition that he deserves, a case can be made that he should be an All-Pro. Outside of J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald, I cannot think of a single defensive lineman causing more havoc on a routine basis than Fletcher Cox. He is playing at such a high level that he deserves to get the All-Pro nod.

But while the All Pro voting system removes the fan vote (and thus, popularity contest) from the equation, Cox is still facing significant hurdles to get the recognition he deserves. As a defensive end, Cox competes against 4-3 defensive ends that are in prime position to make more plays. While those voting on the All Pro awards certainly understand that stats aren’t everything, there is an inherent bias towards high sack numbers regardless.

So the All-Pro nod likely won’t happen this year. But eventually, Cox deserves it. Because he is one of the best defensive lineman in all of football, even if the box score suggests otherwise.

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Brent Cohen, on Twitter @EaglesRewind

Patrick Causey, on Twitter @pcausey3

The Eagles are playing the Buffalo Bills at home this Sunday at a critical juncture of the season. At 5-7, the Eagles are tied for first place in the NFC East, and a win will certainly go a long way towards improving their chances of winning the division.

Without further ado, here is a scouting report on the Buffalo Bills. Brent broke down the key numbers, while I broke down the tape of the last three Bills’ games. Here is everything you need to know.

By the Numbers

– 538 has the Eagles as 55% favorites, while Vegas has the game as a toss-up.  I think that’s a dead-on assessment.  However, the Bills have been much more consistent, with just one loss by more than eight points.  The Eagles, meanwhile, have been among the most inconsistent teams in the league (29th by DVOA variance).  So…everything is on the table here.  This shouldn’t surprise anyone, but the Eagles have become just about impossible to predict.

– Eagles rank 29th in DVOA against opposing #1 WRs, by far the weakest link.  Facing Sammy Watkins, that might be a big deal.  I’m not sure how often they move Watkins around, but the coverage plan for him is going to be really important.  Clay, the TE, is a good receiver as well, but he’s questionable heading into the game, and beyond that there aren’t any other real threats in the passing game.

– McCoy is obviously going to be a handful. The Eagles rush defense has fallen to 20th by DVOA, and is allowing 4.3 yards per carry.  Kendricks will be a key man to watch (not that he isn’t always).  Alonso/Ryans simply don’t have the speed to contain Shady at full explosiveness.  The Birds were gashed against the Bucs, and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about McCoy doing even more damage.  The performance against the Patriots was nice, but their rush offense is just OK (and without Gronk/Edelman it’s a lot easier to commit to the run).

– Tyrod Taylor, for those who haven’t watched, is having a hell of a year.  His mobility can be tough to handle (31.8 rushing yards per game), but he also takes too many sacks (8.4%), providing some opportunity for the defense to force long yardages.  He has yet to record a passer rating below 75 for a game, and is throwing INTs at a rate of just 1.5% per game.

– The Eagles have the best punt return unit in the league.  As we saw last week, it only takes one big return to have a massive impact on the game.

– The Eagles rank dead last in opponent touchback rate (72+%).  There’s obviously nothing they can do about that, but it’s worth noting.  The league-wide median is just over 56%, so we’re talking about a huge difference.  With a little mean-reversion, the kick return game might get a few more shots as well.

– With Taylor starting, the Bills are 5-4. However, those 4 losses?  2 against New England, 1 against Kansas City, and one against the Giants.  The Bills aren’t a great team, but they seem like a good one, at least by this season’s standards.  The Eagles haven’t shown themselves to be anything but mediocre thus far, but back-to-back wins against the Pats and Bills would rightfully change the narrative a bit.

Inside the Film

I watched the last three games the Bills played: against the Patriots (loss), Chiefs (loss), and Texans (win). Here are my general thoughts on the offense, defense and special teams.

Offense

– Greg Roman runs arguably the most complex running scheme in the NFL. Here is a good write up on Roman’s offense, courtesy of CBS Sports.com. Boiled down: Roman marries inside and outside zone running concepts with more traditional power runs. I even saw a handful of wildcat plays called (especially in the red zone). In other words, they do almost everything.

– It should come as no surprise that McCoy, not Taylor, is the engine that makes this offense go. After a slow start to the season due to a nagging hamstring injury, McCoy is starting to look like one of the best running backs in the league again. Watch how he turns this inside zone run which should have been a tackle for a loss into a huge gain:

– The run I saw the most was the outside zone run, where Taylor has the option to keep it himself or let McCoy use his explosive speed to get to the edge. They run it to great effectiveness, and it puts the defense in a bind given Taylor’s running ability.

– But Roman uses a lot of misdirection, screens, and even trick plays built off the run game. Expect to see a lot of tight end and running back screens off of the playaction, where the Bills show run to one side of the field, just to go with a screen in the other direction.

– Roman is not afraid to use Taylor in the run game, and will even call what some consider to be “college plays”:

– Big picture: the Bills offense is at its best when it uses the run to set up the pass. In a lot of ways, they are similar to the offense Roman ran in San Francisco with Colin Kaepernick. The run game is the key, and getting McCoy going will be critical for the Bills, especially with Karlos Williams out with a shoulder injury.

– To drive that point home further, on the opening drive against the Texans, the Bills called 6 runs to 1 pass. The pass was the last play call, which was a perfectly thrown fade route to Sammy Watkins in the end zone. McCoy led the way, while Taylor created with his legs as well. That is a vintage Bills drive.

– Speaking of Taylor: he is not a rushing quarterback that can throw. And while he isn’t running an advanced passing game, he is a true duel threat. He is an accurate passer that can navigate the pocket well and tries to give his receivers time to make plays down the field.

– But as Brent pointed out, Taylor has a high sack rate. This is the downside to Taylor always trying to extend plays. He will often hold onto the ball too long, leading to sacks.

– As well as Taylor played, he is not a QB that should be throwing the ball 35+ times a game. Don’t expect to see advanced passing schemes during this game. What Roman does best is simplifying the passing game, much like he did in San Francisco for Kaepernick, to put Taylor in the best position to succeed. Taylor is at his best when he is throwing deep off of play action. The Bills will set up the deep threat by pounding the run game repeatedly, and then going over the top to Sammy Watkins. Taylor has one of the best deep balls in the game right now. There is simply no covering this:

– The Eagles had a very good gameplan against Cam Newton, forcing three interceptions. Part of that was mixing up coverages and getting good pressure on Newton, confusing him and forcing him to make careless mistakes with the football. I expect a similar plan against Taylor. The Texans dropped two easy interceptions when Taylor was under pressure: the first resulted from Taylor throwing off his back foot, the other time Taylor failed to see a linebacker sitting in zone coverage.

– But here is the scary thing: Taylor ranks as the 5th best passer under pressure per PFF.com, completing 55.8% of his passes (which ranks 6th overall), throwing 4 touchdowns to just 1 interception. Obviously, context is key with these numbers, as the aforementioned 2 interceptions that were dropped by the Texans would change his ranking. But it still shows how highly he is playing: his area of weakness still grades out favorably against the rest of the league.

– If I were to rank my areas of concern, it would be LeSean McCoy first, followed by Sammy Watkins second. Watkins is Taylor’s favorite deep threat, and he uses his good route running, hands and great speed to make plays down the field. I don’t like Maxwell against Watkins in this matchup: he is just too slow to keep up with him. The Eagles are going to need to give Maxwell a lot of help over the top, or Watkins could have a big game. And the scary thing? Even when Watkins is covered, he still makes plays. The more I saw of him, the more concerned I became.

-Ever since Jordan Hicks went down with an injury, the Eagles have struggled covering running backs catching passes out of the backfield. McCoy could really give them fits in this game:

– One final thought: the Bills were able to do something virtually no one does: shut down J.J. Watt. He had 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 0 pressures. I had to look for him throughout the game just to make sure he was playing. They made Watt a focus: double teaming him, using fullbacks to help chip block him, and most noticeably, running runs to the opposite side of the field from Watt to negate him entirely. As Vic Carruci pointed out for Birds 24/7, the Bills plan to employ a similar game plan against Fletcher Cox. While Cox is playing at an extremely high level, it will still be important for Bennie Logan and Cedric Thornton to have big games.

Bills Defense:

– The first thing to know about a Rex Ryan defense is that he likes to bring pressure often. He long down and distances, but he is not afraid to send the house on first down either. The Bills do a good job of mixing up their blitzing concepts and disguising their blitzes.

– The biggest concern I have here is that Bradford is not able to audible from a play depending on what he sees. The offensive line is going to need to play well, Bradford is going to need to make quick and decisive reads, and Kelly is going to need to incorporate a lot of check down/short routes into the passing game to respond to the pressure.

– The matchup I like the most in this game is Zach Ertz and Jordan Matthews over the middle. Alex Smith, Tom Brady and especially Bryan Hoyer used the short passing game over the middle to dink and dunk their way down the field against the Bills defense. Bradford has shown a tendency to attack defenses in similar fashion. And the Bills defense were beaten repeatedly with crossing patterns and curl routes. Expect the Eagles to attack the middle of the field in this game.

– Another advantage the Eagles theoretically could have is in the deep passing game, especially targeting rookie cornerback Ronald Darby out of Florida State. I know that Darby is getting a lot of press as a potential defensive rookie of the year candidate, but I saw him get beat repeatedly by Sammy Watkins, Jeremy Maclin, and Travis Kelce. Against the Chiefs, he gave up two touchdowns on deep throws — one to Maclin and one to Kelce — and almost gave up a third but Alex Smith overthrew an open receiver.

– I said theoretically though because until this point, the Eagles do not have an outside deep threat. Perhaps Huff or Agholor finally step up today and allow the Eagles to attack deep. But I wouldn’t hold my breath.

– The Bills are not stout against the run, and have been especially vulnerable to runs up the middle. If there was ever a game for Murray to step up big, this is it. They also had a tendency to wear down as the game progressed. Against the Texans, the running back started to get five yards down the field before first contact in the fourth quarter.

– But the Bills are good at shutting down slow developing outside zone/stretch runs. The Bills have a lot of team speed and swarm to the ball. Most of the time I saw that play run, the Bills shut it down. Kelly will call the outside zone run regardless, but he should only use Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles and Kenjon Barner on that play. Murray is just not quick enough or decisive enough to get to the edge for that play to be effective against this Bills team.

– The Bills have an impressive front four with Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes, Marcell Dareus, and Corbin Bryant. The first three get most of the publicity, but Bryant (#97) really popped on the tape with good penetration and pressure. The interior of the Eagles offensive line is going to have their hands full with him.

Special Teams

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DeMarco Murray is not struggling because of scheme fit or bad play calling. Murray is struggling because he is not the same player he was last year in Dallas.

Patrick Causey, on Twitter @pcausey3

Chip Kelly finally relegated DeMarco Murray last week in the win over the New England Patriots, treating Murray like a glorified third string running back.

The carry differential was drastic and sent a clear message: Murray will no longer garner the majority of touches simply because of his oversized contract:

It was a move I have advocated for since after the Eagles win over the Saints. Murray has struggled all season and has not looked like the same running back that led the NFL in rushing last year.

Without question, Murray has been out performed by his backfield counterpart, Ryan Mathews. Murray has averaged 3.5 yards per carry this year, ranking 41st among qualifying running backs, according to ESPN. Mathews, on the other hand, has averaged an impressive 5.7 yards per carry, which ranks first in the NFL. Add in the upgrade Sproles provides catching passes out of the backfield, and an argument can be made that Murray is the third best running back on this team.

For whatever reason, Kelly stuck with Murray despite his struggles. It raised legitimate questions over whether Kelly the GM was hamstringing Kelly the coach because he refused to admit his mistake signing Murray to a massive free agent contract.

But all bets were off after the Eagles were embarrassed on national television during Thanksgiving. With the season on the brink, Kelly promised to reevaluate everyone’s role with the team, and he upheld that promise by cutting Miles Austin and marginalizing Murray’s role with the team.

And while we can quibble over the length of time in which it took Kelly to make these moves, he still deserves credit for admitting his mistake and not allowing his ego to cost the team anymore games.

Some, including ESPN.com’s Ed Werder, have attempted to blame Murray’s lack of production on scheme fit issues with Chip Kelly’s offense. Werner raises two principal points in support of his theory:  (1) Murray is running out of the shotgun too often and is much better suited for running under center; and (2) Kelly is calling too many outside zone runs when Murray is a better runner between the tackles.

Here’s the only problem: the numbers don’t support this.

Let’s start first with the direction in which Murray is running, courtesy of ESPN.com.

2015 Murray Splits:

As you can see in the chart above, the 2015 numbers generally support Werder’s position: the only direction in which Murray is relatively competent this season are runs up the middle, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Murray struggles getting to the outside (sideline runs) just as often as he struggles running between the tackles but to a specific side of the line (side runs).

Seems like Werner might be onto something right? Not so fast.

Look at his numbers from 2014. Murray’s worst production in 2014 were runs up the middle, while he excelled on outside runs.

2014

You can also view Murray’s numbers in 2013 (here), 2012 (here) and 2011 (here). You will see that Murray has not consistently struggled with runs to the outside. His numbers are fairly even throughout his career, save for minor differences that can likely be explained by a difference in talent at specific spots on the Cowboys offensive line (much like you will see the Eagles running backs excelling running behind Jason Peters over other positions).

In other words, we cannot blame Murray’s lack of production on Kelly calling too many outside runs.

So what about this whole running under shotgun theory? To Werder’s credit, Murray has run more from under center throughout his career, to the tune of 841 to 256 carries, per ProFootballReference.com. And as anyone who has played football will tell you, there is a difference between running under center versus running in the shotgun. So some growing pains were to be expected.

But looking at Murray’s production throws cold water on Werder’s theory: Murray has never struggled running from shotgun before in his career.

Here are Murray’s numbers from 2015:

As you can see, Murray has actually done worse running under center this season than he has running from the shotgun formation, a fact that has been conveniently ignored by Murray’s supporters.

Now, here are Murray’s numbers from 2014:

While Murray ran under center much more frequently than from shotgun, he did not experience any drop off in production. And before you yell “small sample size” at me, consider the following averages per carry for Murray throughout his career, again courtesy of ESPN.com:

2013

• Shotgun: 5.2
• Under Center: 5.1

2012

• Shotgun: 4.0
• Under Center: 4.1

2011

• Shotgun: 6.5
• Under Center: 5.4

I don’t want to discount the difference between running under center versus the shotgun, but the numbers just don’t back up the idea that Murray is better suited under center.

And while training camp proclamations don’t carry much weight, I did find the following comments from Murray in August to be interesting, courtesy of Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer:

“Murray said he actually gets to ‘see more of the field’ when it’s a shotgun formation.

‘I get to see a lot of the things the offensive line are doing, and hear their calls and really know where the ball should go in different fronts,’ Murray said.”

Perhaps this was hyperbole. Murray certainly wouldn’t be the first, nor the last, player to ever speak rosily about his new team and scheme, especially when he is attempting to ingratiate himself to the entire fan-base. But there has to be a certain element of truth to these statements as well, which are backed up by the good production Murray has had from the shotgun formation over the years.

This is about the time where I turn to the tape to show you what I mean. But I’ve done this a number of times so far this season, and I don’t want to keep recycling the same material I’ve discussed at length before. Simply put, Murray is not decisive or explosive when he has a clear running lane, he tries to do too much instead of taking the easy yards, and, for whatever reason, he is not making smart decisions when given adequate blocking by the line.

The Cause of Murray’s Struggles

So why is Murray struggling if it is not scheme fit issues? I don’t mean to beat a dead horse, but this point seems to be lost on a number of people who refuse to acknowledge that his drop of production is directly related to the heavy workload he experienced last season.

Murray carried the ball an absurd 497 times last year, including the playoffs, putting him directly within the cross hairs of the “Curse of 370.”

BleacherReport.com provides the full analysis of the Curse of 370 here, but the essential take-away is this: whenever a running back carries the ball over 370 times in a single season, he experiences a significant drop off in production the following year.

More specifically, of the 28 running backs in NFL history that have eclipsed the 370 carry mark:

• 12 saw their production drop by half or more the following year;
• 19 missed time due to injury the following year;
• 5 missed at least half the year;
• The average drop-off in production: a ridiculous 39.2%;

Perhaps the best illustrator is the following chart that shows the dropoff in production the year after a running back has eclipsed 370 carries:

Put another way, Murray’s drop off in production was a predictable outcome. That is why I advocated against the move this offseason. Kelly already had enough weapons at his disposal with Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. He could have satisfied the third running back spot with much cheaper alternatives: running backs are routinely found at the tail end of the draft or via undrafted free agency.

Kelly invested too heavily in the running back position generally, and compounded that mistake by investing in a running back coming off a historic usage rate. This puts the Eagles in a bind not only for this season, but also next year as well.

Which brings me to the final, most important question:

What Should the Eagles Do?

The question of whether Murray is the best option for the Eagles moving forward was never really in doubt. At this point in his career, Murray is the third best option on this team. With Mathews healthy, an argument can even be made that Kelly should scratch Murray from the lineup and roll with Mathews, Sproles and Barner.

But the real problem comes next season, when Murray is due $8 million and cutting him would carry a $13 million cap hit.

For most of the season, I have considered it a lock that Murray would be back given that cap hit. Indeed, Murray’s $13 million dead cap hit represents 9% of the $143 million salary cap. It would be a dangerous proposition to rob an NFL franchise of that capital given the amount of holes on the Eagles roster.

But the more we see and hear from Murray, the more legitimate the discussion becomes about whether the Eagles should move on from Murray after this season.

Let’s start with the low hanging fruit: Murray has consistently thrown his teammates and coaches under the bus. Against Atlanta, Murray demonstrably yelled at the coaches while walking off the field, something that was caught on national television.

And how can we forget this look from Murray, which became an internet sensation?

Seemingly every time something goes wrong on offense, Murray is quick to show his disgust:

When someone like DeSean Jackson or LeSean McCoy pulled these kind of stunts, it was front page news and used by their detractors as proof positive for why Kelly got rid of them.

For whatever reason, Murray was given a pass. But his latest antics — going over Chip Kelly’s head to complain about his playing time to owner Jeffry Lurie — was the straw that broke the camel’s back for me.  Think of it this way: the Eagles just pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the year, beating Tom Brady and the Patriots at home. But instead of talking about that great win and the positive momentum it can carry forward, we are instead talking about Murray’s plane ride visit with Lurie.

While Murray has said all the right things publicly, he is clearly prioritizing his happiness and need for touches over the good of the team. And it has the trickle down effect of taking all the attention away from a huge win and placing it on Murray’s lack of touches.

If Murray is this unhappy now, after one game of being demoted, how unhappy will he be if this continues the rest of this season? And what if he is no longer the lead guy next year? Will Murray idly sit by and collect a paycheck? Or will he become a locker room cancer?

As hard as it would be for the Eagles to move his contract, they need to consider all options this offseason. Murray is not the running back he was last year and it is unreasonable to expect his production to improve given his age and high usage. Even if the Eagles have to eat a significant portion of his contract, it might be an addition by subtraction if they can somehow move him to another team.

Otherwise, all of the effort Kelly put into fostering a great locker room — or “culture” — will fall to the wayside.

UPDATE/CONCLUSION

I appreciate all the responses I’ve received to this article. Some of you have disagreed with my ultimate conclusion, while others might have misinterpreted what I am saying. So I wanted to clarify one thing: I am not discounting the effect that the new system or running out of the shotgun has on Murray. As I stated above, I am sure it has SOME impact on his success this year.

But, there is overwhelming evidence that suggests Murray’s just not as good as he used to be. The numbers above clearly show this. And as I’ve covered before, the tape supports this conclusion as well. Add in the history of running backs that have seen their production fall off a cliff after getting 370+ carries in a single season, and I think we are making a mistake if we assume the system change is the MAIN cause of his struggles.

http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/head-coach-chip-kelly-of-the-philadelphia-eagles-looks-on-news-photo/498317010

The Eagles struggles directly tie back to their unsuccessful and inept strategy at building a championship caliber team.

Patrick Causey, on Twitter @pcausey3

The Eagles season is in a tailspin right now. The loses are piling up, with each one becoming worse than the one that preceded it, fingers are being pointed, and anonymous agents for anonymous players are saying Chip Kelly lost the locker room.

It has been an unmitigated fall from grace since the Eagles beat the Dallas Cowboys and pulled to 4-4 and right in the thick of the NFC East title race. The expectations of winning these last three games, which represented the soft underbelly of the Eagles schedule, seems like a lifetime ago. It has gotten so bad that Eagles fans can’t even revel in the Cowboys’ misery.

Now, the Eagles are left wondering how a season once filled with so much promise is left in ruins. As the Eagles shift through the rubble and try to regroup before this week’s anticipated beat down at the hands of the New England Patriots, let’s take a step back and look at how we got here before we come up with a plan for fixing this mess.

Our focus does not start this past offseason, nor does it start in 2013, when Chip Kelly was first hired as head coach of the Eagles.

It starts back in 2010.

The 2010/2011 NFL Drafts

Surprised we started here? You shouldn’t be.

It’s easy to use the change of guard in coaching staffs as a natural delineation point for judging Chip Kelly’s tenure as a head coach. But it would be a mistake. Because under the new structures of the CBA, with a hard salary cap and cheap rookie contracts, maximizing draft picks has become critical to the success of a franchise.

But the Eagles approached the 2010 and 2011 offseasons with reckless abandon, targeting players which filled a need that would help the Eagles “get over the hump” instead of targeting the best player available. It was a dangerous philosophical departure from a franchise that had shown good discipline in drafting during the early part of the 2000s.

The results were catastrophic:

2010:

1. Brandon Graham, OLD/DE, Mich
2. Nate Allen, S, USF
3. Daniel Te’o-Nesheim DE Washington
4. Trevard Lindley CB Kentucky
5. Keenan Clayton LB Oklahoma
6. Mike Kafka QB Northwestern
7. Clay Harbor TE Missouri State
8. Ricky Sapp DE Clemson
9. Riley Cooper WR Florida
10. Charles Scott RB LSU
11. Jamar Chaney LB Mississippi State
12. Jeff Owens DT Georgia
13. Kurt Coleman S Ohio State

2011

1. Danny Watkins, G, Baylor
2. Jaiquawn Jarrett, S, Temple
3. Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State
4. Casey Matthews, LB, Oregon
5. Alex Henery, K, Nebraska
6. Dion Lewis, RB, Pitt
7. Julian Vandervelde, G, Iowa
8. Jason Kelce, C, Cinn
9. Brian Rolle, LB, OSU
10. Greg Lloyd, LB, UConn
11. Stanley Havili, FB, USC

24 draft picks yielded only two above average starters (Brandon Graham and Jason Kelce). The remaining picks vacillate between league average starters (Coleman, Lewis) to serviceable backups ( Cooper, Allen, Matthews) to players no longer in the league (pretty much everyone else). In all, only three players remain from those 24 picks: Graham, Kelce and Cooper, the latter of which arguably is undeserving of his roster spot.

It’s hard to put in perspective just how bad these drafts were, but let’s give it a shot. Consider the following players that were drafted in the first round after Brandon Graham in 2010:

• Earl Thomas, S, Seattle (4 Pro Bowls, 3 First Team All Pro)
• Maurkice Pouncey, C, Pittsburgh (4 Pro Bowls, 2 First Team All Pro)
• Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver (3 Pro Bowls)
• Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas (2 Pro Bowls, 1 First Team All Pro)
• Devin McCourty, S, New England (1 Pro Bowl)

In the second round, the Eagles took Nate Allen over T.J. Ward (2 Pro Bowls), Rob Gronkowski (3 Pro Bowls, 2 First Team All Pro), and Sean Lee, to name a few.

The 2011 Draft was more of the same: the Eagles took Danny Watkins ahead of Muhammad Wilkerson, Andy Dalton, and Cameron Jordan, while they reached for Jaiquawn Jarrett in the second round ahead of Randall Cobb, Justin Houston and DeMarco Murray.

Of course, the draft is an inexact science; hitting on 50% of first round picks is considered a great average. So the Eagles could have just as likely drafted Tim Tebow or Arrelious Benn in those spots.

But the simple fact remains that these were historically bad drafts that created a void of players aged 26-30 — i.e., in their prime and capable of carrying this current team. Those misses have forced the Eagles — Chip Kelly included — to spend the last four offseasons looking to fill holes on this roster via free agency.

Perhaps if the Eagles drafted Earl Thomas instead of Brandon Graham, they wouldn’t have needed to splurge on Byron Maxwell to help shore up the secondary (and yes,I know they play different positions). Rob Gronkowski’s presence would have mitigated the loss of Jeremy Maclin. And of course, the 43 sacks Justin Houston has tallied over the last four seasons (22 last year alone) would have helped an otherwise underwhelming Eagles pass rush.

http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/danny-watkins-of-the-philadelphia-eagles-blocks-during-the-news-photo/154443891

Danny Watkins is a pick still hurting the Eagles franchise.

Chip Kelly’s Mistakes as a GM

To their credit, the Eagles refocused their approach and committed to drafting the best players available in 2012 and 2013. By almost any measure, these drafts were a resounding success: Fletcher Cox, Mychal Kendricks, Nick Foles and Brandon Boykin in 2012, Lane Johnson, Zach Ertz and Bennie Logan in 2013.

Six legitimate starters (not including Foles) — four of which, Cox, Logan, Kendricks and Johnson — that have Pro Bowl talent. They were foundational drafts. Drafts which could have set the Eagles up for years to come, infusing the team with young talent that already included the likes of LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Kelce, Evan Mathis and Jason Peters.

Obviously, the 2013 Eagles team was not without holes, most importantly at the quarterback position. Foles 27/2 turned out to be a mirage, and if the Eagles didn’t figure out that position, it would take creating a defensive juggernaut that could mitigate his limitations to carry this team to a Super Bowl. In other words, they would be the exception to the rule, hoping to replicate the one off successes of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens or 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

But it is easy to see that with some shrewd free agency signings, another good draft, and a little bit of luck, the Eagles could have found a quarterback and been on their way to competing for Super Bowls.

All that changed this past offseason when Chip Kelly sought to rebuild this team in his image. Kelly’s radical, and some would say foolish, approach to rebuilding this roster would have been viewed with incredible skepticism but for the capital he built up by having two good seasons as a head coach.

Let’s examine the chief problems with his approach.

Questionable Personnel Moves

There are certain truisms to building an NFL roster. One of the principle tenants is that you build through the draft and supplement through free agency. That is the approach advocated by smart organizations like the New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, and Pittsburgh Steelers.

During Chip Kelly’s first two years, the Eagles largely adhered to this approach, eschewing large free agent signings and finding good fits at reasonable prices. Instead of overpaying for Jairus Byrd — who signed a massive six year, $54 million contract — the Eagles signed Malcolm Jenkins to a three year $16.5 million deal. Byrd has been a colossal disappointment, appearing in only 12 of 27 games, while Jenkins has developed into one of the best safeties in the league.

Connor Barwin was another smart signing, inking a six year, $36 million deal in 2013, a bargain price for a quality OLB in a league starving for such versatile playmakers. They flipped a fifth round pick for Darren Sproles and locked him up to a team friendly three year, $10.5 million contract.

These shrewd signings had Howie Roseman’s fingerprints all over them, who was quick to remind us that the contrary approach led to the disastrous 2011 and 2012 regular seasons.

In other words, winners of free agency rarely win when it matters most. If Malcolm Jenkins didn’t pan out, his contract would not hinder the Eagles long term. It’s a low risk, high reward approach that is best given the relative unknowns that are inherent in signing free agents.

Large money free agent contracts, on the other hand, are a risky proposition. In a league governed by a strict salary cap, teams have only so much money to spread around. If you’re going to contribute a significant percentage of your salary cap towards a handful of players, you better be sure they are going to validate their worth. When they don’t, it can set a franchise back for years, since they are robbed of that valuable capital to invest and improve their team.

For whatever reason, Kelly decided drastic change was needed to the Eagles roster. A quick review of his moves shows a worse batting average than Ryan Howard on a breaking ball low and away:

• Signed Byron Maxwell to a 6 year, $63 million deal, making him a top five paid corner in the league. Maxwell ranks 92nd overall according to PFF.com (8 spots behind Cary Williams), with quarterbacks completing 69% of their passes throwing at Maxwell, good for a 105.1 quarterback rating.
• Signing DeMarco Murray to a five year, $40 million deal: also making him one of the five highest paid running backs in the league.  Murray is 22nd in the league with 545 yards on 155 carries and four touchdowns. And his 3.5 yards per carry ranks 43rd in the league out of only 48 qualified running backs.
• Trading LeSean McCoy for Kiko Alonso: Do I even need to address this? Let’s just move on.
• Letting Jeremy Maclin walk: The common narrative is that the Chiefs simply blew Maclin away with a huge contract that the Eagles could not match. However, according to at least one report, Maclin left because Kelly wouldn’t take his calls during free agency while the Chiefs made Maclin feel “like he’s the greatest thing on earth.” Obviously, Maclin’s departure has been a significant issue, with the Eagles having to rely on the likes of Miles Austin and Riley Cooper, two of the worst receivers in the NFL.
• Failing to Address the Offensive Line: You already know the story here. The Eagles failed to draft a single offensive lineman in the last two seasons, and are relying on two guards that have been career backups.
• Signing Miles Austin, Playing Miles Austin, Not Cutting Miles Austin: The Eagles compounded their mistake signing Miles Austin by still playing him and relying on him in key situations. His presence on the Eagles roster can only be described as dumbfounding.

Outside of the smart signing of Walter Thurmond, has any move that Kelly made this offseason panned out? That was a rhetorical question, of course, because the answer is obviously no.

Not Finding a Quarterback

No, I didn’t forget about trading Sam Bradford when discussing the questionable offseason moves Kelly has made. But before I get to that, riddle me this: what is the Eagles record since Donovan McNabb was traded to the Washington Redskins?

46-45.

Let that set in for a moment.

The following cast of characters have been called on to solve the Eagles quarterback position since McNabb was unceremoniously traded on Easter, 2009: Michael Vick, Kevin Kolb, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley, Mark Sanchez, and Sam Bradford.

Six quarterbacks in five seasons. That’s Cleveland Browns territory folks.

Chip Kelly thought he found the diamond in the rough this offseason when he traded Nick Foles, a 2nd and a 5th round pick to the Rams for Sam Bradford and a conditional 4th. But so far, this trade has not yielded the type of return which Kelly had hoped.

The real kickers here are the 2nd round pick and $12.95 million difference in salary between Foles and Bradford that could have been used to fill a hole on this team. Jeremy Maclin, for example, could have been paid the $11 million he received from the Chiefs with room to spare.

I understand why Kelly moved on from Foles, but he still vastly overpaid for Bradford. Consider that the Arizona Cardinals acquired Carson Palmer for essentially two 7th round picks. Palmer is 25-8 with the Cardinals.

And just to stir up a little bit of controversy, it’s interesting to note that Foles subpar 2014 season was, by almost any statistical measure, superior to what we have seen from Bradford so far in 2015:

But I digress.

The Eagles have tried to take the bandaid approach to the quarterback position since 2009, and it hasn’t worked. Kelly has certainly contributed to the situation. It was Kelly who opted to start Michael Vick in 2013. Kelly who has failed to draft a single quarterback outside Matt Barkley since arriving in Philadelphia. Kelly who signed — and resigned — Mark Sanchez to contracts which he has not come close to validating. And Kelly who overpaid to acquire Sam Bradford.

As I will discuss later this week, the only viable way for them to solve this position is to go back to the draft.

http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/quarterback-sam-bradford-of-the-philadelphia-eagles-warms-news-photo/498043294

Sam Bradford has not solved the Eagles quarterback riddle

Injured Players

Kelly acquired multiple players with significant injury history this offseason. He gambled that his sports science program would limit their exposure to injury, thus providing the Eagles with a distinct advantage over the rest of the league who shied away from these talented players simply because of the inherent injury risk.

In other words, Kelly thought he had identified a market inefficiency. But so far, the results have been luke warm at best:

Only Walter Thurmond has played every game this year, which is somewhat shocking given that he played in only 36 of 80 career games prior to signing with Philadelphia. Bradford, Mathews, Murray, Alonso and Hicks all came with significant injury histories, and all have missed some time this season. The loss of Hicks has proved especially problematic to a team that has been unable to stop the run since his departure. And it is easy to wonder if the Eagles would have won any of the last three games if Sam Bradford was healthy, which actually says more about how bad Mark Sanchez played than how good Bradford was playing.

Avoiding Large Roster Turnover 

A study done by NFL.com back in 2013 suggests that the most successful teams in the NFL value roster continuinty. Teams like the Packers, Seahawks, and Patriots avoided roster turnover like the plague, while perennial laughing stocks like the Jaguars, Rams and Bucs had the most roster volatility.

As we just laid out, the Eagles have experienced considerable roster turnover this past offseason. Put aside whether you agree with these roster moves in isolation, because the net effect of all of the moves taken in totality is the real issue here.

FiveThirtyEight.com foreshadowed the problem to start the season, finding that the Eagles had the fourth highest rate of roster turnover in the league, losing 32% of its Approximate Value. This roster volatility led to a half game drop in the Eagles projected win total of 9.4 games.

Kelly made the fundamental miscalculation that the Eagles would be able to come together as a team despite the heavy roster turnover. In hindsight, it was foolish. Chemistry takes time to develop, and whenever a team turns over 32% of its roster, growing pains are to be expected.

Losing the Game of Inches

About 3,000 words in and a clear picture should finally be starting to emerge: the Eagles are losing because of their departure from well-settled principles on team building, an issue that stems back to the tail end of the Andy Reid era.

These issues matter because, as Al Pacino once famously told us, the margins for error in football are so small that success or failure can hinge on a few inches:

The NFL is, unquestionably, a game of inches. Each game turns on a handful of plays, which in turn has a drastic impact on the outcome of a team’s season. Or as Pacino said, “One half a step too late, or too early, and you don’t quite make it. One half second too slow or too fast and you don’t quite catch it.”  The little things — those inches — add up, and as we have seen all year, make the “fucking difference between winning and losing.”

Or, as Jimmy Johnson said it best before the game Thursday:

https://twitter.com/InsdeTheHuddle/status/669918608886247424

Go back over almost any loss this season save for the Lions game, and you can point to a handful of plays that decided the outcome of the game:

• Atlanta: the Jordan Matthews drop leading to a pick;
• Cowboys: the bad interception to Ertz in the end zone;
• Redskins: the dropped pass from Ryan Mathews on the wheel route and the dropped pass from Matthews down the stretch;
• Bucs: 5 chances for turnovers the Eagles missed; 3 of which directly led to touchdowns.

All the penalties at inopportune times. All the dropped passes. All the plays where Bradford throws to one spot while the receiver is running to another. These all tie back to a lack of chemistry, which directly ties back to the Eagles high roster turnover, which was only required because the Eagles failed to build through the draft since 2010.

There are some ways out of this — which I can address later this week — but these are the fundamental issues with the Eagles. And like I said at the start, it goes way beyond just dropped passes or missed tackles. It’s an organizational issue that starts at the top, and won’t change until the Eagles leadership recognizes the problem and fixes it.