T/O Margin and Wins (Strong Correlation Alert)

Posted on December 31, 2012 by Brent

Rather than posting one huge Andy Reid retrospective, I’ll be doing it in pieces while attempting to highlight things that most writers are not paying attention to.

First up: Turnover Margin

As we’ve seen very clearly this year, turnovers are bad (shocking, I know.) However, I was surprised to see just how strong of a correlation there appeared to be between wins and turnover differential. Here is the chart for Andy Reid’s tenure (wins are the x-axis, T/O margin is the y-axis):

This is too small of a sample to make any conclusions about the NFL in general, but over the next few days I’ll compile a lot more data and see what it looks like. Regardless, it’s pretty clear that for Andy Reid, turnovers were highly correlated to success (for what it’s worth, the correlation coefficient for the above data is .69, really strong.) This also further supports the notion that Reid’s downfall was tied closely to his decision to go with Vick as QB. McNabb had his faults, but he was among the all-time best when it came to taking care of the football. Vick, sadly, was not as careful, and that may have cost Andy Reid his job (along with the ridiculously bad fumble recovery luck this year.)

I think we can all agree that last year was the tipping point for Andy Reid. He finished 8-8 and everyone’s expectations were higher, putting pressure on him for this year. Although the 8-8 record isn’t great, the Eagles ranked in the top ten in both Points Scored (8th) and Points Against (10). As you probably guessed, that performance was undone by the team’s turnover differential, which ranked 30th in the league.

I’ll be comparing correlations between wins a various statistics over the next couple weeks, but I’d be surprised to find one more determinate than turnover differential (other than point differential, for obvious reasons.)

Post-game notes: Eagles vs. Giants.

Posted on December 30, 2012 by Brent

First things first: Thank you to the Eagles for not winning, thereby securing the #4 pick (chance at #3 as of this post.)

Now to the game:

Wow…truly epic destruction. Perhaps the defense figured that since none of them made the Pro Bowl, they could replicate the experience by playing this game as though it was in Hawaii. There are really few words that could adequately describe the performance of this team today, but I will highlight one: SAD.

As in, it’s really SAD that Andy Reid’s final game as head coach of the Eagles will go down as one of his team’s worst games ever. Prior to the game, I was very concerned that the team would put it together to honor their coach, with Vick playing well in hopes of continuing his career and the Eagles pulling out a victory over the tailspinning Giants and ruining their draft spot.

Needless to say, that concern was sorely misplaced.

Here are my immediate notes:

– Is Michael Vick’s career over? My gut says no, but I find it very hard to believe that there is an NFL coach/owner that believes he can be a difference maker for a contender. Additionally, he’s about the last “veteran” you’d want to come in as a backup and help tutor a younger QB. Perhaps Rex Ryan will make a play with him, but I don’t see a real role for Vick next year. If he does get the job somewhere, expect that team to regret that decision.

– Do we still have LBs? The Eagles entire LB corps registered 1 tackle in the first half. Let that sink in for a moment. In what was a terrible year for Eagles LB play, today was probably the worst individual game.

– B-Graham was silent. Hard game to judge Graham on, but he was fairly quiet nonetheless. I’ll be watching him closely on the film, but it looked like he did not have the same energy today as he has had most of the season.

– Has Nnamdi been Space-Jammed? There may be no bigger example of unmet expectations than Nnamdi Asomugha. Either he has had a precipitous decline in skill (likely combined with being overrated in the first place) or his skills have been stolen from him by pint-sized aliens hell-bent on world domination. Either way, he’s not coming back.

– Is Trent Cole victim #2? Though he’s done-so more quietly than Nnamdi, Trent Cole has also seen a huge decline in performance this year. He recorded at least 8 sacks in every year after is first (when he had 5) and had 11 sacks last year. This season? Just 3. With a new regime coming in, Cole might be one of the roster surprises next year, either because he’s no longer on the team, or because he moves to the bench.

Though I don’t expect to see anything useful/interesting, I will be completing a full Rewind of this game by the end of this week.

We’ll also take a data-driven look at Andy Reid’s tenure and start looking at possible replacements.

Pre-game Notes: Eagles vs. Giants

Posted on December 30, 2012 by Brent

With today’s game, the Eagles season from hell finally ends. Injuries have robbed us of the most interesting players to watch (Foles/Cox/Kendricks) but there are still a few reasons to remain engaged (other than doing it just because you are a real fan and love football.)

– A loss guarantees the Eagles pick no worse than 4th in the draft (a loss with a Raiders win over the Chargers gives the Eagles #3.) A win, however, could drop the Eagles as low as 7th (according to BleedingGreenNation) if the Lions, Bills, and Browns all lose (very possible.)

– The Giants have lost 5 of their last 7 games, though maintain a slight chance to make the playoffs. They need a win today and losses by Chicago, Minnesota, and Dallas. It should also be noted that despite their streak of poor play, they’ve been good in their own stadium and bring a 5-2 home record into the game.

– Bryce Brown. The Giants are allowing 130.4 yards rushing per game, so if Brown gets an honest chance, we could see some fireworks. If McCoy dominates the carries, we’ll still get the fireworks, but they won’t be as meaningful (we know McCoy is awesome.) If I was Jeffrey Lurie, I would have made it abundantly clear that I expected to see Brown get at least 10-15 carries…

– Brandon Graham. Graham has had a good season, let’s see how he finishes it out. He hasn’t erased the bust label yet, but he has shown enough potential that fans should be legitimately excited to see what he can do next year. The Giants are a good test, giving up the least sacks per game at 1.3. If Graham can be disruptive today, it’s a very good sign for next season.

– Michael Vick. Vick’s play today really doesn’t matter to Eagles fans since he will almost certainly not be on the team next year, but it felt wrong not to include him.

– Jeremy Maclin. Maclin has 293 yards receiving in his last three games. Though the change to Vick will mean a different type of offense, hopefully Maclin can continue his strong play. The Giant’s are ranked 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (257.4), so there should be some room for Maclin to work.

– Want to play the worst drinking game ever? Drink every time you hear Jamar Chaney’s name mentioned…

Eagles vs. Redskins Rewind

Posted on December 28, 2012 by Brent

This week: All-22 thoughts and 2 plays diagrammed. Unlike previous weeks, there were not many positives to take out of this game. Starting to see clear evidence of the lack of talent at several positions for the Eagles. I talked about some of this in the post-game, so I’ll try not to repeat myself.

All-22 thoughts:

– RG3 was clearly not 100%….That should scare you. I’m really not excited that this guy is in our division. He appears to have just about every tool you can imagine for a quarterback. Eagles fans should hope the Redskins continue to neglect the defensive side of the ball, because that offense is going to be tough to stop for a long time if RG3 stays healthy.

– A mixed day for Nick Foles. 3 bad moments surrounded by a lot of positives, which is becoming a theme. The fumble was a huge mistake, likely costing the Eagles 3 points on what should have been a throw-away. The missed throw to Maclin was Foles’ worst attempt of the day. It’s impossible to know whether his hand fracture is to blame, but in any case that is a pass he has to make. The final play of the game was painful to watch. It doesn’t look like there’s much more he could have done, but he has to know that his two choices are throw it out the back of the end zone or put up a 50/50 ball, can’t take a sack there (essentially what he did by grounding it.)

However, the rest of the day was strong, and he again showed that he has the ability to move the offense down the field consistently. There were a few plays where he was hesitant to pull the trigger, even though he appeared to have a receiver to throw to. Probably him being risk-averse, but he’ll need to become more confident in his reads.

– Tough day for the defense against the run. Allowed 4.6 ypc and 128 total rushing yards. Alfred Morris is a tough match-up for anyone, but the Eagles really need to do a better job of stopping the runner at first contact. You can’t expect to win every one-on-one battle, but there were several plays where Morris dragged multiple Eagles defenders for additional yards. When you’ve got 2+ defenders in contact with a runner, he should not gain any additional yards. The LBs were a bit exposed, though they didn’t get much help from the safeties….

-Speaking of safeties, Colt Anderson had a bad game. I know he’s become a fan favorite, mostly due to his clear effort and big-play ability on special teams, but the guy really shouldn’t be anywhere near the starting safety position. He missed several tackles and was beat in coverage for a TD by Santana Moss. Great effort on every play, but clearly doesn’t have the athleticism to do that job full-time.

– OL had another poor game. Not something to really focus on, as it’s about what you’d expect from a bunch of depth players, but it’s worth noting that Foles was pressured often.

– Bryce Brown? Absolutely unacceptable to ignore Bryce Brown, regardless of his “fumbling problem”. The sole purpose of this team for the last few weeks of the season should be getting young players game experience and trying to evaluate the talent they have. 4 carries isn’t getting it done. The only reason for it is Andy Reid putting his own performance above the long-term best interests of the team (can’t blame him but it still sucks.)

I liked the idea of him at KR, but he was far too hesitant on Sunday. The returner needs to pick a seam and attack it. Hopefully he’ll step his game up against the Giants, but it’s a tough mindset to get into if it’s not natural.

– Questionable play-calling from Marty. The Eagles continue to use a lot of draws, the reason for which is beyond my comprehension. The general idea of the draw is twofold: it shows pass, which holds the LBs, and it also gives the DEs time to rush themselves out of position, hopefully opening up running lanes for the back. However, it also gives the DL extra time to attack the backfield. Considering the poor quality of the OL for the Eagles, is making them protect longer really the best strategy? I’ve seen far too many of these plays get blown up in the backfield, yet the Eagles continue calling them. They’ve had some success running PA while faking the draw, but those gains have been nowhere near great enough to offset the negative plays.

Play 1: Foles to Maclin

1st and 10 at the Redskins 27. 10:24 remaining in the First quarter.

This was a very nice play all-around for the Eagles, as all 5 linemen handled their assignments, picking up an extra rusher, while Foles delivered a perfect ball to Maclin, who was running a corner route. Below, we can see every player’s assignment. The defenders noted with red circles all rush the QB at the snap.

The key to the play is the Redskins alignment. They’ve chosen to blitz (sending 5 rushers, all on the LOS at the snap.) In order to gain that extra rusher while still marking all Eagles receivers, they’ve left themselves with just a single deep safety, positioned in the middle of the field.

Riley Cooper’s route gives Maclin the space he needs to complete the TD. Cooper runs a seam or a dig (he cuts it off inside after the play develops, can’t tell if it was part of the design), which holds the safety in the middle of the field. Unable to commit until the ball is thrown, the safety isn’t quick enough to get to the sideline and break up the play.

Above, there are three things to note as the play is in progress: the OL has given Foles plenty of space/time, the safety’s only movement has been two steps backwards, and Maclin’s CB has failed to recover after trying to jam the WR at the line. The CBs play has allowed Maclin to get behind him, which gives Foles the window he needs to make the throw.

Below we see the final shot of the play, just after Foles releases the football. Notice that the safety has just reacted and is just a step from his starting position. Riley Cooper is about to break inside, but his job is done, as he forced the safety to honor his route and kept him from getting to Maclin. Maclin has just made his cut and now has separation from the defender. Foles is able to step into the throw, which he delivers perfectly, allowing for an easy TD catch.

The takeaway from this play should be familiar: when the OL diffuses the blitz, the odds shift dramatically in the offenses favor. That, combined with a smart route combination (Riley seam + Maclin corner) led to a relatively easy TD throw/catch for the Eagles and a quick start to the game.

Play 2: Blitz Backfire

3rd and 10, 1:37 to go in the 3rd Quarter. Ball on the Eagles’ 22 yard line.

This is the Santana Moss TD. Similar to the play above, the key is that the Eagles rush 6 at the QB and don’t get home, leaving Colt Anderson in single coverage against Santana Moss…a poor matchup for the Eagles to say the least.

Here is the alignment at the moment of the snap. The Eagles are in the nickel, with 3 CBs, 2 LBs, and 2 Ss. The DL is in the Wide-9, and the LBs (Ryans and Kendricks) are on the LOS in the A gaps (to the left and right of the Center.) Kendricks backs out at the snap, but the Eagles bring the slot corner blitz (leaving Colt to cover Moss), for a total of 6 rushers, highlighted by the red circles below.

There’s nothing fancy to the Redskin’s play design. The key is that the RB stays in to block, leaving 6 blockers (5 OL + 1 RB) for 6 rushers, and everyone hits their assignment. Meanwhile, Santana Moss runs a route similar to Maclin’s TD, just on the opposite side of the field. Anderson underestimates Moss’ speed and his ability to maintain it through his break, allowing the WR to run past him and gain separation shockingly fast.

Below, we can see the play in action. Notice RG3’s pocket, he’s got plenty of time to let Moss get downfield despite the blitz. Anderson is still flat-footed, with 6-7 yards of space between him and Moss.

Finally, we see Moss just after his break and Griffin’s throw. At this point, Anderson is in good position, however, now it’s just a footrace, which obviously Anderson loses badly (Moss is one of the faster players in the league, Colt is….not.)

Two final things to note on this play: First, RG3’s throw was phenomenal (roughly 45 yards through the air with pinpoint accuracy.) Exhibit A of why this guy scares me as a an Eagles fan (Exhibit B would be his running, but he decided to leave that at home on Sunday.)

Second, very questionable defensive play-calling here by Bowles. It’s 3rd and 10, meaning if you play a standard defense you should have a very good chance of holding them to a field goal attempt. Additionally, the ball is on the 22, so a sack doesn’t take the Redskins out of field goal range. Therefore, rushing 6 men at the QB is really a High-Risk/Low-Reward decision. This is something coaches do fairly often, and I find it infuriating, as it’s clearly not an optimal decision. Some may argue that Bowles was trying to keep Griffin from having the time to complete a long pass, but the fact is that a 10 yard route does not take very long to develop and rushing TWO extra men leaves a lot of holes in the secondary, which NFL QBs typically do not need a long time to find. The blitz needs to be used intelligently and sparingly…3rd and 10 in the red zone (practically) is not the time.

Draft Order

Posted on December 27, 2012 by Brent

Putting the Rewind together, but I wanted to post a note about the draft order. The Eagles are currently tied with the Raiders and Lions with a record of 4-11. The draft order is decided by the final standings (with the worst team getting the best pick). If teams have the same record, my understanding is that strength-of-schedule is the tiebreaker. Keep in mind that having a tougher schedule ranks you higher in the final standings and therefore give you a worse draft pick.

Currently, the opponents records for the Raiders, Eagles, and Lions are as follows:

Raiders – 112-128

Eagles – 122 – 118

Lions – 136 – 102 – 2

As you can see, the gaps are wide enough that this Sunday’s games are unlikely to change the order. Therefore, if all three teams lose, the Raiders would secure the #3 pick, the Eagles #4, and the Lions #5.

If the Raiders win (unlikely, but San Diego isn’t exactly invincible), an Eagles loss would give them the #3 pick.

So while I hate to say it, the goal for this Sunday is simple….DO NOT WIN. The #3-#4 pick pretty much guarantees the Eagles one of the top OTs (there are two, depends on who they like better) or possibly the DT that nobody besides me is talking about (for the Eagles anyway.)

A win, however, makes things more complicated. I haven’t calculated the SOS for every team, but there are four 5 win teams. So winning Sunday could potentially move the Eagles draft slot from #4 to anywhere between #4-#9. I doubt the Eagles would have a stronger SOS than all of those teams, but the overall message is pretty clear: Losing on Sunday is FAR better for the team’s future than winning is.

As painful as it may be, anyone really hoping for a brighter future for the team should want to lose to the Giants…(on a brighter note, a Giant’s win probably doesn’t get them into the playoffs, so you don’t have to feel too bad about it.)

Fitting End For The Youngsters

Posted on December 26, 2012 by Brent

First off, happy holidays to everyone. Whether you celebrate Christmas or not, I hope everyone was able to enjoy a few days off with friends and family.

Unfortunately, the news for several Eagles rookies over the weekend was not good. Foles broke his hand and Cox/Kendricks were both concussed against the Redskins. I don’t expect any of them to play in the final game (Foles is definitely out, still waiting for info on Cox/Kendricks, but why play them?).

Therefore, I thought a quick note reflecting on each of their performances this year was in order:

Nick Foles – Foles is garnering a lot of attention, and for good reason. Here are Foles’ final numbers for this year:

60.8% Completion percentage

1,699 yards passing, 6 TD/5 INTs

79.1 QB Rating.

Rushed 11 times, picking up 5 first downs.

Overall, I think there is plenty of reason to be excited about Foles and do not understand the detractors. I believe a large part of the negative analysis is the performances being made by the Luck/Griffin/Wilson combo, to which Foles does not compare. However, in general, Foles performed very well for a rookie, especially given the circumstances surrounding the team. (See the post from last week showing the rookie performances of some other current NFL QBs.)

His accuracy, pocket awareness, work ethic (anecdotally), and poise all appear to be strong. His only big weakness thus far has been the deep ball accuracy and perhaps a reluctance to throw into tight windows (tough to grade him down on that.)

Though there is still one game to review (full Rewind will be posted tomorrow or Friday), I’ve seen more than enough to feel comfortable with Foles heading into next year. There is no QB in the draft worth the #3-#4 pick, and there is little sense in bringing in a mediocre veteran, so the best use off assets for the Eagles is to commit to Foles for next year, rebuild the rest of the team, and see where that gets them.

Behind a strong OL (a possibility for next year) and with McCoy/Brown (if the team doesn’t ignore him), Foles has a chance to be a very productive QB.

Cox – As most readers can probably tell, I am very excited about Cox. It’s rare to find a DT with the pass-rushing skills this kid has, and he plays with energy every play. He’s got some work to do against the run, but the talent is there and he has the potential to be a real force for the Eagles for a long time. A lot will depend on the next coaching regime, but if he’s allowed to attack and put with the right players (perhaps a gap-filling NT….Lotulelei?), he’s gonna wreak havoc on opposing QBs.

Kendricks – Kendricks will probably end up as one of the bigger disappointments of the season. He started the year with a few strong performances, and it looked like Eagles had found a playmaker at LB. However, his play tailed off as the season progressed. He did rebound in the past two weeks when he was switched back to the WILL spot, but overall a very inconsistent year. Still looks like he has the potential to be a good LB, but there are definitely some holes in his game that will need to be addressed (both tackling and reading.)

In total though, this Eagles rookie class looks stronger than any they’ve had in while. I’ll add some more color once I review the Redskins game, but fans should be encouraged by the overall play of the rookies (we’ll do a full rookie breakdown after the season), especially in comparison to other recent draft classes.

Andy Reid Era

Posted on December 24, 2012 by Brent

This will probably be just the first in a series of posts we do on Andy Reid over the next couple weeks, but here we have highlighted his success relative to other current NFL coaches. Before we get to the chart, here are the rules:

The X axis is cumulative regular season winning percentage. Important to note that this a) only includes current NFL coaches, and b) only includes their track record with their CURRENT team. So Jeff Fisher and Mike Shanahan don’t get credit. This is a What Have You Done for Me Lately? world.

The Y axis, I’ve termed Annualized Playoff Success. I went through each coaches playoff history and gave them credit for their success on a simple point system I created.

Playoff Appearance (No Wins): 1 Point

Playoff Win(s) (but no Conference Championship): 2 Points

Super Bowl Loss: 3 Points

Super Bowl Win: 5 Points

You add up all those points and divide by total coaching tenure with the team (to mitigate the impact of long tenure).

The bubble size represents total Playoff Points under my system (so it’s a bit biased towards long tenure, but instructive nonetheless). Orange bubbles, in case you couldn’t guess, mean super bowl winners.

Andy Reid is a little tough to see, but he is the biggest blue bubble, just under Tom Coughlin.

The big takeaway here is: “Be careful what you wish for” regarding a coaching change. I’ve long been an Andy Reid supporter. Despite some obvious shortcomings, I believe he is still one of the best coaches in the league. Most importantly, it is very difficult to find a good NFL coach. As we can see in the chart above, by our assumed current standards (Andy Reid = just not good enough), there are A LOT of crappy coaches out there.

There’s no guarantee the Eagles make the right choice when it comes to the next coach, and I’d argue that the odds actually suggest it will be tough to find someone as good as Reid has been.

Just to clarify, this is not an endorsement of keeping Reid, just reminding everyone to temper their enthusiasm to get rid of him.

Eagles vs Redskins: Post-game notes

Posted on December 23, 2012 by Brent

Fun game to watch, though the ending was obviously a bit of a letdown. However, the #3 pick in the draft is looking pretty good right now. Here’s a few initial thoughts on the game:

– Foles bounced back as expected. He made one terrible throw (the missed TD to Maclin) and had an awful fumble, but the rest of the game was strong. He was accurate and made a few great plays with his feet, buying time and keeping his eyes downfield. I’m not really bothered by the fumble; he’s been really strong with the ball thus far. The Maclin miss, however, is problematic. Watching the replay, the ball just dies as it gets closer to Maclin, with a tight spiral devolving into an ugly mess. Mechanics issue is the likely culprit, so hopefully it’s something he can address (that may solve some of his deep-throw accuracy issues as well.)

– I was very disappointed by the play-calling and player-usage. I know Andy Reid really wanted a win in his (likely) final home game, but he put his own success above the team’s long-term best interests today. Just 18 rushing attempts (non-QB) with Bryce Brown getting just 4 carries. At this stage in the season, there is no real benefit to playing Shady. We know how good he is. Conversely, with Brown’s lack of experience (in the NFL or college), now would seem like a perfect time to feed him the ball. The O-Line was having trouble, but still need to see Brown touch it more than 4 times on offense.

– Brandon Graham alert. Though it’s unlikely he will ever make anyone feel good about passing on Earl Thomas (everyone mentions JPP but the consensus pick at the time was Thomas, who is now arguably the best safety in the league), B-Graham is fast becoming one of my favorite players. Excellent effort on nearly every play. He led the team in tackles and was very disruptive. With every additional strong performance, the odds of his improvement being a fluke grow smaller.

– The Invisible Man was indeed invisible again. Did anyone even notice Jamar Chaney was in the game? Can’t blame you if you didn’t, he registered just 1 tackle and, on the first view, it seems that was the only time he contacted a ball carrier. I’m anxious to see how many snaps he got, but in any case 1 tackle from the starting SAM is unacceptable. The problems at safety have drawn a lot of attention (deserved) and are the biggest hole on the team, but the third LB spot is next on my list and isn’t getting anywhere near the publicity it deserves as a roster weak spot.

– Fletcher Cox concussion is a shame. He was playing a strong game prior to the injury. Can’t imagine he plays next week, but he and Graham are easily the biggest positives to come out of this year.

Eagles vs. Redskins: Pre-game notes

Posted on December 23, 2012 by Brent

Looking forward to today’s game; here’s what is important to watch for:

-A cynical note: It’s close to impossible to actively root against the team during the game, but a win here could prove hugely expensive. Just remember, a top 3 pick in the draft is a lot more fun than a meaningless win in December. Also, though I’ll never actively root for a division opponent, I think I’m in the majority when I say I’d much rather see RG3 in the playoffs then Eli Manning or Tony Romo (though watching Romo fail is hugely entertaining if a bit predictable.)

– Nick Foles. Foles is coming off a relatively weak performance…expect him to bounce back. The Redskins are among the worst pass-defenses in the league, allowing 285 yards per game through the air. Their pass-rush has also struggled, notching just 25 sacks, tied for 28th in the league. All-in-all, Foles should have the time and space to move the offense, so there will probably be a lot of fans trying to jump back on the bandwagon after today.

-Emil Igwenagu. This is a bit of a wildcard, as there is still no clear indication of how he will be used or how much he will play. However, Igwenagu has the strength/size/toughness to be a good blocking fullback. Normally this wouldn’t mean much, but if we take Andy Reid out of the picture for next year, it’s not difficult to see the offense transitioning to more run-emphasis. Imagine a full-speed McCoy/Brown tandem running behind a rejuvenated O-Line. Add in a powerful run blocker out of the fullback position and it becomes a very intriguing prospect, especially when you remember DeSean will be there to keep defenses honest. It probably won’t amount to much, and this could easily be the most we ever talk about Igwenagu, but for today I’m paying close attention and hoping he gets a chance to play.

-Fletcher Cox. Assuming RG3 starts and plays without any noticeable limitations, this should be a tough assignment for Cox. To date, he has proven himself as a strong pass rusher, either with the straight bull-rush or by using his hands to get separation at the snap before using his explosiveness to blow by his blocker. Normally this is great, as collapsing the pocket from the inside disrupts just about every play. However, against a QB like RG3, this can be an issue as it creates running lanes and makes it harder to contain the QB (assuming he can avoid Cox’s initial pressure). I’m not sure how they’re going to play RG3, but if it were me, I’d be focused on containment and rely on the DBs to cover (the Washington WRs shouldn’t really scare anyone.) If that’s the case, then we may see a dip in performance from the rookie DT, as he’s more successful when he can attack rather than react.

-The LB’s. Should be a rough day for Demeco and Co. The RG3/Alfred Morris combo is a bad matchup, since they put a lot of pressure on the LBs (not exactly the Eagles’ strength.) Morris is a strong runner both inside and out, and can be tough to bring down. Hopefully Kendricks can use his speed to make a few plays, but in a one-on-one Morris-Kendricks battle, you’d have to bet on Morris coming out on top. Also, I think we can safely assume that The Invisible Man (Jamar Chaney for those who forget) will remain invisible.

-Colt Anderson. This should be a fun game to watch Colt. He’ll either make a few big plays or look ridiculous. The running attack of the Redskins plays to Colt’s strength, but he also has a propensity to lose his angle when attacking, making him vulnerable to missed tackles. He played a solid game last week, but this offense is an entirely different challenge.

-RG3. I typically don’t highlight opposing players because it’s not within the purview of this blog, but RG3 is special. For any fans who don’t have RedZone or Sunday Ticket, you’ve been missing out. It’s possible RG3’s career gets derailed by injury or that he adjusts his game to avoid contact, but for now he might be the most entertaining player in the league. It sucks that he plays for the Redskins, and I’m sure we’ll all grow to hate him if he kills the Eagles over the next 10 years, but for now I encourage everyone to enjoy the show.

Quick link and an administrative note

Posted on December 22, 2012 by Brent

Mike Clay from Pro Football Focus has a decent article on Nick Foles’ numbers so far, here’s the link.

It’s interesting, but I’d caution anyone against inferring too much from it. The sample size on Foles is still too small to determine any real tendencies. Regardless, the breakdown will give readers some additional points to watch for over the last two games.

Administrative note: For anyone attempting to subscribe to Eagles Rewind by email (link on the right), please know that after submitting your address, you will have to confirm your subscription (in an email you receive after submitting).

Also, I’ve separated the posts into categories, which can be found on the right-side of the site. This way, anyone interested in the statistical analysis or full game rewinds can go straight to them without having to read every post.

Finally, feedback is always appreciated so give us a shout at eaglesrewind@gmail.com or on twitter (@eaglesrewind) with your thoughts. If there’s any data you want to see or question you want answered (like are fumble rates largely luck?), please ask.

Eagles Rewind

Objective and Analytical Analysis of The Philadelphia Eagles and the NFL

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