Andy Reid Drafts:

Posted on December 20, 2012 by Brent

We’ll be taking a much more detailed look at the Draft after the season ends, but I thought I’d quickly provide a good illustration as to why the team’s performance has tailed off the last few years. Below are all of the Eagles’ draft picks made under Andy Reid. I did not include this past year’s since not enough time has passed to really judge any of the picks (though Cox looks like a hit).

I’ve color coded them so we can easily see where and when the good picks were made.

There’s a lot of subjectivity to “grading” players, but the general rule of thumb I used was:

Good starters for the Eagles are highlighted Green. Complete disasters are Red. Everyone else is Black (either mediocre or jury is still out). You’ll notice that nobody after the second round is Red. Beyond there it becomes very difficult to find quality starters, so the team really isn’t docked much for missing there (though not finding quality backups is another issue altogether). Also, if a player went on to be successful, but did so for another team, they don’t count as a good pick (think Derrick Burgess or Brandon Gibson).

Notice anything? Now I’m sure some will argue about how I’ve classified a few of the names on the list (Andrews and Bunkley could certainly be Red) but in general I think everyone can see the same overarching trends. The most shocking realization is the complete lack of strong defensive players picked since 2006. Maybe Brandon Graham’s emergence is real, in which case he might switch to Green, but there really isn’t anyone else in all that time that I’d happily call a starter. (And don’t say Stewart Bradley, he started for just 2 seasons, only one of which was a good year)

It’s also easy to see how this happened if we take a glance at who is highlighted in Red (i.e. complete misses). From 2007-2011, the Eagles used 2nd round picks on the following defensive legends: Victor Abiamiri, Trevor Laws, Nate Allen, Jaiquawn Jarrett.

That, folks, is a very big reason why this is Andy Reid’s last year as coach. It looks like he broke the trend with Cox, but too little too late.

Final note: I do not mean to suggest that Andy Reid is bad at drafting. My guess is that over his career he has been about average and most people don’t realize just how hard it is to accurately project talent. The offseason draft analysis will take a look at league-wide success rates and see where Reid actually ranks and if there really are good drafters or if it’s just luck (hint: it’s probably a lot of luck).

Also, I apologize if there are any typos or misspelled names. Lots of transcription, hopefully its all correct.

Week 14: Eagles vs Bengals Rewind

Posted on December 19, 2012 by Brent

Sorry for the long delay, but as some of you know, the All-22 footage isn’t available until the Wednesday after the game. So at the risk of bringing up the memory of a game most fans would like to forget, here is the All-22 breakdown, featuring notes on key figures and breakdowns of three big plays:

Notes:

Overall – A better game then the score indicates, as I described in the post-game notes. Key figures:

Nick Foles – Played a much better game then most are giving him credit for. The interception was a terrible throw, but other than that he made good decisions. Some will point to a couple throws at the end of the game that clearly weren’t high-percentage passes, and they’re correct, but I would argue that down 24 points with time running out is exactly the time to engage in higher risk plays. Throwing an interception at that point doesn’t really decrease the odds of winning since they are so low to begin with.

He again showed good pocket mobility, though this game he didn’t make his progressions quite as well as he had been doing previously. All-in-all another encouraging game despite what most are saying. (That’s precisely why we just look at the tape rather than going off what we hear.)

Colt Anderson – Colt played a better game than I gave him credit for. In the post-game notes I mentioned the nice pass break-up but nothing else. Colt made some nice plays in the run game (his strength) though he did have trouble bringing down the runner at the point of contact a few times (getting dragged a few yards). A solid game, though, and certainly higher quality than we’ve seen from any of the safeties in a while.

Jamar Chaney – From now on Chaney will be referred to as either “The Invisible Man” or “Human Practice Sled”. It is really amazing how he can play so much and yet have so little impact on the game. The box score will tell you he had 7 total tackles (by far his highest of the year), but most of those came from him chasing down a man he should have stopped earlier. By my count, he made just 1 positive play, bringing the runner down at the line of scrimmage. The best thing you can say about him is that he takes 1 blocker out of the play (which in fact is about the worst thing you can say about a LB).

Fletcher Cox/Brandon Graham – This was easy to see for most watching the game, but both of these players had a huge day. If they can keep up this level of play, the Eagles have the potential for a great d-line. Cox has already shown himself to be among the best pass-rushing DTs in the league, which is what the Eagles hoped for when they picked him. Graham, however, has been a revelation (considering how low his stock was preseason). In addition to the sacks, Graham played with a lot of energy on each play, including coming completely across the field once and bringing down a scrambling Dalton from behind on the opposite sideline. Any fan looking for a reason to get excited has found it.

DRC – DRC reminded everyone why he’s so well-known. He was matched man-to-man against Green nearly the whole game, and held him relatively in check. The TD fade is a tough one, DRC has to know that’s coming and find a way to stop it, but that’s easier said then done for any corner up against a receiver of that caliber.

Kendricks – Another young player to watch. Kendricks had a tough game and was largely missing from the action. He did have one pass defended, but was made to look foolish by Andy Dalton (on Dalton’s TD run). Kendricks’ performance has definitely taken a hit outside of last week’s game. Let’s hope he rebounds, otherwise the LB core is again pretty weak.

Now for some plays:

The Maclin Fake-Screen:

2nd and 3 at the PHI 38 yard line. This is a great play not just because of how well it was drawn up and worked, but because the Eagles started setting this up the week before. Remember all those WR screens they ran against Tampa? Well they came out this game and early-on ran a couple, giving the Bengals plenty to recognize and key off. Laying that groundwork paid off in this play, which ultimately led to a TD.

Here is the pre-snap look: The Eagles come out trips-right with Riley Cooper on the opposite side (total of 4 WRs). On this play, the Bengals are in a nickel defense, which means they only have 3 CBs on the field. To account for the discrepancy, the Bengals’ safety takes responsibility for Maclin.

Just after the snap, seen below, the Eagles are showing the WR screen. Notice the safety covering Maclin has stepped up and crossed the 50. To this point there is no real sign that it’s a fake, as Maclin could just be running to set up blocking position between his man and the receiver.

Finally, we get the payoff picture. At first glance it doesn’t look like much, the safety covering Maclin is still farther downfield. What’s key though, as we can see from the above picture, is that at this moment Maclin is at full speed, whereas the safety covering him has just realized it’s a fake and is starting from a dead stop, giving him no chance of matching Maclin’s speed.

A very well-drawn up play, but fairly simple. The key was setting it up with actual screens both early this game and in the week before. I know some people have mentioned Foles should have hit Maclin in stride (leading to a TD on this play), but I think Foles was really just trying to ensure a catch and got a bit conservative with his throw.

Play 2: The Cooper TD

This play occurs shortly after the previous play. Nick Foles hits Riley Cooper, who is wide-open at the goal line. How did he get so open? Below is the pre-snap. The Eagles come out with 5 WRs and bunch 4 of them just off the line to the right side. As you can see from the diagram, bunching 4 WRs (one is actually RB Lewis) together makes things very difficult for the defense. If they are in man-coverage, the defenders are susceptible to “pick” plays or running into each other as they try to run with their man. Zone coverage alleviates this problem, but means the defenders have to be communicating with each other perfectly, or else they may accidentally double-cover a WR and leave another open. The second option (zone) is what appears to happen here.

Riley Cooper is the WR lined up closest to the O-Line on the right side. Pay close attention to his route. See how it runs between the two defenders (shown as red circles)? That ends up being the key to the play. Of those two, the outside defender takes Dion Lewis, the Eagles WR furthest right in the above picture. The inside defender actually disrupts Cooper’s route (seen below), forcing him towards the sideline. However, this defender, after running with Cooper, sees Dion Lewis break back inside, therefore entering his zone. He breaks off his coverage of Cooper and picks up Lewis. The outside defender doesn’t get the message and also covers Lewis, leaving Cooper wide open on the goal line.

Above, we can see Cooper being disrupted. Lewis is about to break back towards the inside, which causes Cooper’s defender to leave him, sticking to his zone. Below is the moment this happens.

And here is the moment of the pass. Notice Cooper coming open and the two defenders covering Lewis.

Bunching 4 WRs caused confusion in the defense and led to a very easy throw-and-catch for a TD. It must also be noted that this play only succeeded because the O-Line gave it enough time to develop.

Play 3: One for the defense.

Second Quarter, 1st and 20 at the 2 minute warning. This is the fumble forced by Cullen Jenkins and recovered by Tapp. There are two things that make this play interesting: it comes from the wide-9 alignment, and it involves Jenkins coming over top both the other DT (Cox) and DE (Cole), which means the DBs did a good job in coverage to give him time to do that.

The key to the play, other than the coverage, is Cox and Cole’s ability to attack the center of the offensive line. As I illustrated above and we can see below, the combined power of these players collapses the left side of the Bengal’s o-line, giving Jenkins the space he needs to come around.

Above we can see Jenkins in motion and Cole setting the edge. Below we can see Jenkins as he’s coming around the line. Notice that the stunt action towards the center has drawn the Bengals’ LT to Cole, meaning there is nobody left to block Jenkins, whose original blocker can be seen doing nothing in the picture below.

Finally, the moment of the strip Jenkins gets there just in time, as Dalton is about to release the ball (and fortunately just before his arm starts coming forwards.

A big defensive play out of the wide-9, who knew? In any case, this is the type of action the Eagles should be able to generate with Cox/Cole. Both are great pass rushers (Cole not as much this year but he still has to be respected) and are used here to create space for Jenkins, leading to a turnover (something they haven’t created nearly enough this year.) Let’s hope we see more plays like this in the next couple games.

What’s the deal with fumbles? (Should we worry about Bryce Brown?)

Posted on December 19, 2012 by Brent

Given all the hyperventilating going on about Bryce Brown’s supposed fumbling problem, I thought it would be helpful to take a data-driven look into fumbling rates and see if there truly are players with “fumbling problems” or if it’s largely a result of chance.

Verdict? While there are certainly some players that are better/worse than others at holding onto the football, most of it really is a result of luck (despite all the crap you hear from analysts).

How did I get there? Stay with me while I explain:

I gathered a sample of relatively prominent running backs over the past ten years. Admittedly this is non-random, however I wasn’t picking by any specific stat and after reviewing the sample I don’t see any particular reason to suspect that it’s largely skewed (one big caveat that I’ll get to later).

I ended up with 31 running backs of varying career lengths/prominence/etc… I’ve listed the full sample at the end of the post. In all, this produced 167 seasons of 100 carries or more. I then looked to see if there was any correlation between a player’s fumbling rate (fumbles/attempts) from one season to the next.

The end result was a correlation coefficient of .17. For those unaware, correlation coefficients run from -1 to 1, with 1 suggesting perfect positive correlation and 0 suggesting no correlation from one year to the next. A value of .17 tells us that while a player’s fumbling rate from year-to-year is somewhat correlated, the relationship is weak and largely dictated by chance.

So about Bryce Brown: While his fumbling rate this year is very high (3.9%), it’s way too soon to really worry about this as a long-term problem. In fact, within the sample there were 7 RBs who carried a fumble rate of greater than 2.5% over the course of a full season (with 100+ carries). Of those, only one RB recorded that high of a rate a second time in his career (Ricky Williams).

– Hat tip to Matt Swartz from Fangraphs for insight. Follow him on twitter if you like analytical baseball stuff (@Matt_swa).

More Notes from the data:

– The highest fumble rate within the sample was Reggie Bush’s second year with 100+ carries. That year he fumbled 4.46% of the time. However, in every other season of his with 100+ carries (there were 4), his fumbling rate was never higher than 1.89%.

– Just two of the included RBs had career rates greater than 2%, Reggie Bush and Travis Henry.

– The lowest career rate was recorded by none other than Brian Westbrook, who fumbled on just 3 carries out of a total 1385, or just 0.22% of the time.

– Below are the charted season rates for Adrian Peterson and Tiki Barber, two players noted for early career “fumbling problems”. I’ve explained that most of this is likely result of chance, but felt it was interesting to see given the reputation of each player (the chart should probably not have the data points connected given what I’ve talked about, but it makes things easier to see):

-Now for the caveats: As I mentioned above, this was a non-random sample chosen mainly because I was looking for RBs with a large enough number of carries to make for a significant sample. It’s likely that players who fumble a lot do not get many seasons with 100+ carries, though there were several players included who fumbled a lot in their early career and continued to get carries. I will take a look at the records to see what the fumbling rates look like for players who did not have long careers (at least 3 seasons with 100+ carries).

-The data I used only includes RUSHING fumbles. So if an included player caught a pass and then fumbled it is not counted. I wanted to get a pure representation of rushing. Westbrook in particular, had several fumbles after receptions.

– The data for current players did not include this past week’s games.

– Here is the sample of players used:

Ladanian Tomlinson

Fred Taylor

Ricky Williams

Eddie George

Jamal Lewis

Willis McGahee

Steven Jackson

Frank Gore

Clinton Portis

Tiki Barber

Shaun Alexander

Chester Taylor

Ahman Green

Adrian Peterson

Maurice Jones-Drew

Travis Henry

Marshawn Lynch

Brian Westbrook

Michael Turner

Chris Johnson

Willie Parker

Ray Rice

Brandon Jacobs

Reggie Bush

Jonathan Stewart

Fred Jackson

Ahmad Bradshaw

LeSean McCoy

Felix Jones

Arian Foster

Jamaal Charles

Nick Foles Perspective

Posted on December 18, 2012 by Brent

Sensing a few people jumping off the Foles bandwagon. He had a rough game against a good defense, but let’s not get crazy (i.e. suggesting a trade for Kirk Cousins.) Figured I’d add a little perspective on what rookie QBs often look like. Below are the first year QB ratings and TD/INT ratios for each QB (first year = first year with significant playing time).

Alex Smith – 74.8 rating, 16/16

Peyton Manning – 71.2, 26/28

Drew Brees – 76.9, 17/16

Joe Flacco – 80.3, 14/12

Eli Manning – 75.9, 24/17

Obviously there are first year QBs that have done much better, but the point is that it really isn’t rare for QBs to improve dramatically from their early performance. I’m not suggesting Foles is going to be Manning/Brees, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that giving Foles the starting gig next year is a smart play (not just because he is the only real option).

At this point, here’s what we know:

Foles has prototypical size for a QB. He is very accurate on short-medium throws. He has trouble spotting his deep throws. He’s very slow but moves very well in the pocket.

It’s not much, but it’s enough that I’m intrigued to see what he can do with an upgraded line and starting-caliber weapons. He’s obviously going to be a focus of the Game Rewind the next two weeks, but for now there’s no reason to be anything but hopeful about his potential.

Where do Pro Bowl Tackles come from?

Posted on December 17, 2012 by Brent

Dating back to 2003, there have been 28 Pro Bowl OTs (a number of them made multiple appearances). I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look at where all of those players were drafted in order to get a sense of how likely it is for a team to uncover an elite OT either late in the draft or outside it. Admittedly, the Pro Bowl is not a perfect measure of skill, and it’s possible that the shear visibility of being drafted early helps a player get to the Pro Bowl. However, for a high-level look and hypothesis formulation, it suffices.

Although I expected the results to skew heavily to rounds 1 and 2 (they should if NFL talent evaluators are actually good at their jobs), I was very surprised by the severity of the actual results:

Seen above are the amount of Pro Bowl players ordered by the round they were chosen in. With such a small sample size, I think its reasonable to assume the odds are not greater of finding a Pro Bowl OT in round 5 than in round 3; we can chalk that up to chance. However, it does show something fairly useful. That is, if your goal is to have a Pro Bowl OT, you really need to draft one in the first round.

I’m going to take a similar look at several other positions and see if the distribution is as severe (my guess is that there are only a few positions as skewed).

Regardless, it certainly suggests that it is very difficult to put together an elite offensive line (assuming OTs are most important in the endeavor) without the use of high draft choices.

Looking ahead to the draft

Posted on December 17, 2012 by Brent

As discussed last week, at the end of the season, it’s likely that the Eagles will find themselves with their highest 1st round draft pick since choosing Donovan McNabb #2 overall in 1999. So let’s take a look at the current prospect rankings and talk about the potential directions the Eagles could take.

First caveat: We do not know how much input the next coach will have when it comes to the draft. My guess is that Howie Roseman is calling the shots, and will have final say on each pick. It’s safe to assume that the top coaching candidates will want some personnel control, though, so that could change once the Eagles enter the hiring season (I think it’s unlikely Roseman cedes any control.)

Looking at this year’s projected class (underclassmen may choose to return to school), we can see that the Eagles’ timing is pretty bad. Regardless of the Eagles’ particular needs, the absence of one or two franchise QB prospects definitely diminishes the value of a top 5 pick. Additionally, Scouts Inc. typically has at least 2-3 prospects with a grade of 97-98, of which there are none this year. While Scouts Inc is far from perfect in its grading, its board typically closely resembles the consensus “big board” at draft time. However, given the current landscape, the team is in pretty good position to get a major piece (as they should be with a likely top 5 pick).

Here are the top prospects according to Scouts Inc. along with their rating:

Star Lotulelei – DT – 96

Jarvis Jones – OLB – 96

Damontre Moore – DE – 96

Chance Warmack – G – 96

Manti Te’o – LB – 96

Luke Joeckel – OT – 96

Right off the bat, I think we can eliminate Warmack and Damontre Moore from consideration. I feel pretty confident in saying the Eagles will recognize that selecting a G (even if he projects as potentially the best in the league) is a terrible value that high in the draft. Guys like Todd McShay are saying Warmack is the “best guard I’ve evaluated in the past decade, Warmack is the rare interior lineman worthy of a top-10 overall pick”, but I’m not buying it. The position doesn’t have a great enough impact on the game, and average guard play is much easier to account for than either a porous D-Line or mediocre OTs. Top 5 picks are rare, and team’s must maximize the impact from them (though for teams that don’t perhaps top 5 picks are not as rare).

Dismissing a DE is riskier, especially given what appears to be a strong fetish for them among NFL GMs. However, I think (hope?) the play of Brandon Graham and the existence of Vinny Curry will push them to look elsewhere.

From there, the big name to watch is STAR, as in Star Lotulelei, the DT from Utah. Roseman has said pretty strongly that he will be sticking with a “best-available” strategy rather than picking for need, and at this point it looks like Lotulelei has the inside track on the consensus “highest rated prospect” designation. While DT isn’t a glaring hole for the Eagles, the opportunity to pair Lotulelei with Cox for the next 5 years would intrigue any coach. The current scouting report on Star mentions some work needed on his pass-rush skills, but given Cox’s talent for getting pressure, that would seem like a strong match.

If Star is taken, then the obvious (for me at least) pick is an OT. Some may argue that OT isn’t a need, because Peters and Herremans will be back next year. I look at it a little differently. Assuming the Peters/Herremans/Kelce trio comes back next year at 100% of their former skill (a big assumption that most are making quite easily), the O-line would look like this:

Peters – Mathis – Kelce – Scott? – Herremans

The RG position is up in the air (really wish that Watkins kid could play), but whoever they plug in, I feel comfortable in saying that the OL wouldn’t be a weakness and my guess is that it would be above-average. The left side of the line is among the best in the league, but the Herremans/Scott combo leaves much to be desired. Though most fans like Herremans, I don’t consider him any better than average at OT. He won’t get the QB killed, but he isn’t going to set the edge in the run game or completely shut down top pass-rushers.

Now lets look at the line with Joeckel (or whichever OT is deemed best at draft time).

Peters- Mathis – Kelce – Herremans – Joeckel

The left side of the line remains the same and has the potential to be among the best in the league. Herremans moves back inside to Guard, where he has been very strong in the past. Joeckel at RT gives the Eagles the best set of tackles they’ve had since Runyan/Thomas (wait…isn’t that the last time they contended? coincidence?). Additionally, it has to be said that, not only is Peters coming off an injury, but he isn’t getting any younger (he turns 31 in January). While OTs can play at a high level well into their 30’s, it would be prudent for the Eagles to start looking for someone on the right side that could replace Peters when the time comes. We can also look at this as risk-mitigation, in case Peters does not return to his former ability or suffers a new injury.

The remaining players listed above (Te’o and Jones) are both wild cards. I think Te’o is a very unlikely pick for the Eagles, as I assume Roseman hasn’t completely abandoned what he sees as the relatively low value of LBs (he’s not entirely wrong). Jones, however, seems to be all over the place when it comes to evaluation. He projects as a OLB in a 3-4 defense, so its conceivable that if a new coach brings a 3-4 with him, then he would pound the table for a guy like Jones. However, I think the more likely role for both Jones and Te’o in the Eagles draft analysis is as trade fodder.

I think it’s likely that there are several teams will be willing to pay up for Jones (less-so for Te’o but possible), meaning the Eagles may have the chance to slide down a few picks. Provided they could do-so and remain near the top of the draft (getting their OT), this would appear the be the best-case scenario.

To summarize: OT is the current favorite in my estimation, though DT is a significant possibility.

In any case, root for a high draft position.

As an aside, here is a link to National Football Post’s top 200 prospects. I mention this because they appears to disregard the consensus analysis and rely solely on tape and their own research, which obviously appeals to me and, at the very least, provides a different perspective.

A note about turnovers

Posted on December 16, 2012 by Brent

I’m working on a longer analysis that’ll look at individual player fumble percentages. In the meantime, I thought I’d provide some color on the Eagles terrible turnover statistics this season.

For those who are unaware, the Eagles rank last in the league in turnover differential at -22. Of their 34 total turnovers, 21 have been fumbles. As you can imagine, consistently forfeiting possession diminishes the chances for success.

There is reason to hope, however, that next year will see improvement. The numbers above are mostly a function of the rate of Eagles fumbles and their inability to recover them. Below is a chart illustrating the Eagles fumble recovery percentage (includes both Eagles fumbles and opponents fumbles):

In general, we would expect fumble recovery rates for individual teams over the long-term to hover around 50% (given the play’s binary nature). Indeed, if we take the average of the series above we get a value of around 47%.

The problem? This year the Eagles are much, much worse; the team is recovering just 35.19% of all fumbles, which ranks 29th in the league. Combine that with the fact that the Eagles are fumbling more often than the rest of the league and we can begin to see why the team is last in the league.

In the next week or so, I plan to take a look at the correlation of team fumbles from one year to the next (as I’m currently doing for individuals), but at the very least, we can assume that the Eagles are likely to improve on their recovery rate next year (if for no better reason than its difficult to be worse). Holding all other things equal, that alone will result in an improvement in the turnover differential, raising the odds of success.

Post-game notes: Eagles vs. Bengals

Posted on December 14, 2012 by Brent

Brace yourselves, I’m about to say something ridiculous…

That was just about the best performance in a 34-13 loss possible, and Eagles fans should be relatively encouraged by much of what they saw. Ignore the bullshit and remember that since the Eagles aren’t in the playoff hunt, the scoreboard doesn’t matter.

Is anyone really worried about Cedric Thornton’s ability to field a kick? Didn’t think so.

I was at the game, so in essence I got to see the All-22 live (though seeing which players are in on tackles is difficult without the TV and replays.) Following is a list of what does matter coming out of the game:

– Nick Foles. Not a good game. However, I warned you that this was likely going to be much worse than his last game. Foles made one obviously bad throw which is a bit puzzling (and worrisome), but he also did a good job of moving in the pocket and not making high-risk throws. If it hadn’t been for the turnovers by the rest of the team, Foles would be praised for his ability to “manage the game”. He was accurate again, though he did not appear to have the same precision as last week.

The interception was interesting because it came on a play that is ostensibly a strength of his. Every scouting report on Foles mentions a lack of mobility and a strong arm. In reality, what we’ve seen in play is almost the reverse. He’s definitely slow, but moves very well in the pocket and uses his head to account for his slow speed. The arm strength, however, has not been shown as clearly. We have seen flashes of it, but accuracy appears to be a problem when he is forced to drop a pass deep downfield over-top a WR. This throw was a clear under-throw. There is a chance that he under-threw it on purpose, assuming the WR would see it and be able to adjust while the DB wouldn’t. It’s very unlikely, but a possibility for reconciling it with his supposed arm strength. Regardless, this is something to keep a close eye on for the rest of the season.

– The Defense. The defense played a fantastic game, which is remarkable in the face of 34 points allowed. Let’s look at some stats:

249 total offensive yards for the Bengals.

Andy Dalton was 13 of 27 for just 127 yards (and two fumbles).

The Law Firm ran for 106 yards on 25 carries. 29 of those yards came on one rush. Outside of that play the Eagles held him to 3.2 yards per carry.

The Eagles registered 6 sacks and 7 passes deflected.

As we can see from the box score (and from watching it if you were able to ignore the score), the defense played a great game.

– Cox/Graham. I mentioned in the pre-game thoughts that this was a big opportunity for both of these players. I think they got the message. Though I’ll have to confirm it on the tape, this was clearly either the best game or close to it for Cox and Graham. Both consistently drove their blockers backwards and repeatedly disrupted the Cincinnati offense.

Graham finished with 2.5 sacks, 3 QB hits, and a forced fumble.

Cox finished with 1.5 sacks and 2 QB hits. His game was actually a lot stronger than those numbers suggest, as he was able to collapse the pocket and force Dalton to scramble, contributing heavily to the overall defensive numbers.

– Colt Anderson. Didn’t see too much of him (positive or negative), but because of how much I’ve talked about his poor coverage skills, I felt I had to give him props for breaking up what would have been a 1st half touchdown pass to A.J. Green. That’s exactly what a safety should do, so I’m kind of congratulating him for doing his job, but it was nice to see nonetheless.

– Don’t jump off the Bryce Brown train just yet. The last two games have taken some of the luster off Brown, but don’t get too down on him. The fumbles are a big problem, but one that can be fixed. From what I’ve seen, the poor yardage is a result of terrible run-blocking rather than poor performances by Brown. Jake Scott in particular looked like he had an awful game, but we’ll wait to confirm on the game rewind.

Andy Reid Article

Posted on December 14, 2012 by Brent

Very good article on Andy Reid published on Grantland today (written by Bill Barnwell). I’ve included the link below.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8746325/bill-barnwell-takes-all-andy-reid-haters

Towards the end of the season we’ll take a look at some Andy Reid numbers in hopes of gaining a good perspective on how best to characterize his tenure. However, the linked article is a great outline.

I’ve been a vocal Andy Reid supporter for a while, and though it certainly appears like it’s time for both the franchise and him to move on, don’t be surprised when he competes for a title with another team.

Pre-game notes: Eagles vs. Bengals

Posted on December 13, 2012 by Brent

As we get ready for a Thursday night game, a few notes followed by what to watch for:

– Regarding Nick Foles, this game is flashing a pretty strong “REGRESSION” sign. Each defense Foles has faced is ranked in the bottom third of the league for opposing QB Rating allowed. Cincinnati isn’t great (ranking 15th and allowing an average rating of 84.7) but is significantly better than Tampa Bay (allowing an average rating of 92.4). Don’t be surprised if Foles’ stat line looks much worse than last week.

– Barring a miraculous performance by the O-Line, Foles is going to face significant pressure and will take some hits tonight. The Bengals lead the league in both sacks per game (3.2) and sack percentage (8.27%). Tampa Bay averaged just 1.5 per game heading into last week and came away with 6.

– The Eagles DBs will face a stiff test with A.J. Green in town. In my opinion, he and Calvin Johnson are the best WRs in the game right now. It will be interesting to see how the Eagles cover him (expect A LOT of double-teams). Look for the Eagles to do everything possible to prevent him from getting single coverage with a safety, as trusting Allen or Anderson 1-on-1 would likely be a disaster. Theoretically, this should open things up for other Bengals underneath, as zone coverage will be a gamble (at least on Green’s side). The Bengals should be able to use Green to pull coverage, opening up the space he vacates.

What to Watch For:

– Can Foles avoid a turnover? To date, he’s been pretty good at protecting the ball and not making high risk throws. However, in the face of the toughest defense he has seen (and with a short week to prepare) he’s going to be under more pressure than he’s accustomed to. If it’s tough to move the ball (as it should be), we’ll see if he starts pressing. Last week he did not.

As a reminder, forget Foles’ stat line. Watch for his ability to make progressions (watch his head when he drops back) and avoid high-risk throws. Also, still looking for an accurate deep ball…

– Short slants and RB-flats from the offense. I’m a little surprised they haven’t tried to hit Brown through the air a few more times (though perhaps he can’t catch), but they’ll need a variety of check-downs and hot routes to take advantage against the pass rush.

– Mychal Kendricks. Last game he was shifted to WLB and played perhaps his best game of the year (certainly his best since the first month of the season). On the weak-side, he can use his speed more effectively. Specifically, watch him in coverage (mostly RBs out of the backfield and TEs coming across the formation) , as that’ll be a major responsibility of his if they keep him on that side.

– Brandon Graham/Fletcher Cox. Cincinnati has problems protecting Andy Dalton and ranks in the bottom third of the league in both sacks allowed per game and sack percentage allowed. This should be an opportunity for both Graham and Cox to make an impact. Ideally we’d see Trent Cole with a big game, but his play has slipped dramatically since last year. Hard to tell what’s wrong; he just isn’t winning one-on-one battles like he used to (might be an undisclosed injury or just a decline in ability).

– Play Action. As I mentioned in the breakdown from the Bucs game, Tampa Bay didn’t run nearly as much PA as I expected them to given the Eagles problems defending it. The shift away from the Wide-9 should help fix that, but there wasn’t enough of it run last game to test that assumption.

– Colt Anderson/Jamar Chaney. Chaney re-entered the starting line-up last game when Kendricks shifted to WLB. Both Anderson and Chaney were terrible early this year when given playing time. Neither was tested very much by the Bucs. For Chaney, see how involved he is. He has a bad habit of getting sucked up by the first blocker he encounters. He isn’t quick enough to go around them, and hasn’t yet shown the strength or athleticism to get off them.

Colt Anderson has had serious issues in coverage. Against the Bucs, his positive plays came exclusively against the run (and on blitzes rather than read-and-reacts). I’m not expecting very much from either player, but if one of them can be at least serviceable (i.e. close to average) then it eliminates a big hole for the Eagles heading into next year.

Eagles Rewind

Objective and Analytical Analysis of The Philadelphia Eagles and the NFL

Author Archives: Brent