Category Archives: Uncategorized

Quick link and an administrative note

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Mike Clay from Pro Football Focus has a decent article on Nick Foles’ numbers so far, here’s the link.

It’s interesting, but I’d caution anyone against inferring too much from it.  The sample size on Foles is still too small to determine any real tendencies.  Regardless, the breakdown will give readers some additional points to watch for over the last two games.

Administrative note:  For anyone attempting to subscribe to Eagles Rewind by email (link on the right), please know that after submitting your address, you will have to confirm your subscription (in an email you receive after submitting).

Also, I’ve separated the posts into categories, which can be found on the right-side of the site.  This way, anyone interested in the statistical analysis or full game rewinds can go straight to them without having to read every post.

Finally, feedback is always appreciated so give us a shout at eaglesrewind@gmail.com or on twitter (@eaglesrewind) with your thoughts.  If there’s any data you want to see or question you want answered (like are fumble rates largely luck?), please ask.

Andy Reid Article

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Very good article on Andy Reid published on Grantland today (written by Bill Barnwell).  I’ve included the link below.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8746325/bill-barnwell-takes-all-andy-reid-haters

Towards the end of the season we’ll take a look at some Andy Reid numbers in hopes of gaining a good perspective on how best to characterize his tenure.  However, the linked article is a great outline.

I’ve been a vocal Andy Reid supporter for a while, and though it certainly appears like it’s time for both the franchise and him to move on, don’t be surprised when he competes for a title with another team.

 

A look at the standings:

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As the season winds down, I thought it’d be a good time to take a look at the standings, particularly the bottom as teams jostle for better draft position. While it’s very difficult to root for the Eagles to lose, make no mistake, losses are much more valuable than wins right now (repeating the note from last week’s post-game, the drop from the #3-#4 draft pick is worth a second round pick according to the standard value chart).

There are currently 8 teams at 4-9 (including the Eagles).  Below is the current order of teams (according to ESPN) as well as the combined records of the teams each has left to play.  There are 5 teams at 5-8, but for the sake of clarity, I chose to omit them.

Team                             Remaining Schedule (Combined Record)

Carolina (4-9) –                        SD, OAK, NO (13-26)

Tennessee (4-9) –                   NYJ, GB, JAC (17-22)

Detroit (4-9) –                         ARZ, ATL, CHI (23-16)

Arizona (4-9) –                       DET, CHI, SF (21-17-1)

Philadelphia (4-9) –               CIN, WAS, NYG  (22-17)

Oakland (3-10) –                   KC, CAR, SD (11-28)

Jacksonville (2-11) –             MIA, NE, TEN  (19-20)

Kansas City (2-11) –            OAK, IND, DEN (22-17)

Note:  The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule (teams with a lower SOS get a higher pick).

– It’s very unlikely that either KC or JAC will win 2 of their remaining 3 games, meaning we can cross the Eagles off for the #1-#2 draft pick.

– Oakland actually has a very easy schedule and could win any of their three remaining games, though it’s likely that if they finish with the same record as the Eagles they will win the tiebreaker (a function of the relative division strength).  Therefore, the #3 pick is unlikely as well).

– After that, the Eagles have the inside track on the #4 pick, and will likely take it if they lose out.  Conversely, one win by the Eagles puts all of the 5-8 teams in play (remember there are 5 of them now).

– Key game to watch this week (other than the Eagles of course) is Oak-KC.  If Oakland wins, the Eagles could find themselves tied for the #3 pick.  Though I noted above that SOS would likely still favor Oakland, the Raiders have two games (CAR, SD) that are relatively winnable.

Due to the Thursday night game this week, there will be a long layoff before the All-22 comes out and I can review it.  Therefore, the beginning of next week will have look at the draft board and what’s available for the Eagles versus what the projected needs are going into next year.

R.I.P Wide-Nine

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With the departure of Jim Washburn, it appears the era of the Wide-9 as a base alignment is over. (Brandon Graham said on Monday that the Eagles won’t use it for the rest of the year). While it was exciting at first, this year the alignment clearly contributed (heavily in my opinion) to the historically bad defensive performance.

As a result, everyone should play close attention to the performance of the DBs for the rest of the season. The Wide-9 forced the Safeties to take on greater than typical run responsibilities, which may be why there has been such an issue defending PA.

Or Kurt Coleman and Nate Allen are just that bad…

Regardless, the coaching change will hopefully provide some clarity heading into the offseason, as a return to a base 4-3 alignment will make it easier to judge each defensive player (because their responsibilities will be easier to infer).