Scattered thoughts

– Historical Draft Performance

The last post was a pretty broad look at draft performance.  I’m currently making a few adjustments to the analysis that will hopefully provide a more accurate ranking system (though the existing version passes the eye test).  If we get an accurate system, it’s a small step to mine it for performance persistence (skill).  Adjusting for draft position is the big addition, but I’m also looking at relative magnitude (team share of all production available in draft).  If you have any other ideas for making a more accurate ranking system let me know in the comments and I’ll see if I can work it in.

– Sean Smith Interest

This is exactly the type of fake news you should avoid.  The Eagles are interested in the top CB available at the right price?  Shocking.  Saying you’re interested in a top FA but don’t want to get in a bidding war is ridiculous.  That’s how free agency works (for the top players).  However, the Eagles do need to add a CB, preferably one that can start, and adding a mid-level guy in FA would make me feel a lot better about the roster for next year.  If they really do like Smith, they’ve got the cap space to make the move and win a bidding war.

– Nnamdi

Anyone who was against tagging DRC should be completely aghast at the potential for bringing Nnamdi back with a restructured deal.  From what I saw, most people don’t like DRC because of his inconsistent effort.  I challenge you to watch Nnamdi’s tape from this year and tell me you think he was playing hard.  All that talk about players giving up was heavily pointed at Nnamdi, so bringing him back is certainly a knock against the “change the culture” plan.  Almost every player is attractive at the right price, including Nnamdi, but I’d rather tag DRC and pay him $10 mil for one year than bring back Nnamdi at half the price (he’s guaranteed $4 mil, so any renegotiation has to be higher or he wouldn’t accept).  If they do bring him back, he’s going to need safety help, since it was abundantly clear last year that he doesn’t have the speed to stay with fast WRs.

– Nightmares of the 2009 draft

The general draft discussion seems to have settled on the “deep class but no elites” theme.  Allow me to translate: “there are elite players in this class, but we (scouts) have no idea who they are”.  This is definitely bad news for the Eagles, as it diminishes the value of their pick, but don’t believe any story that says there aren’t elite players in this year’s draft. The nightmare scenario for teams at the top is a repeat of 2009.  Here is the top 15 from that year, with pro bowlers highlighted yellow:

Screen Shot 2013-02-25 at 2.17.42 PM

There are a few nice players in there, but the top 5 is a relative wasteland.  However, taken later in the first round were Clay Matthews and Percy Harvin.  And Shady was available in the second round.  While I doubt this year will be as weak as 2009, it is definitely a cautionary comparison as we get closer to the draft.

Rest assured, there will be elite players available at #4.  Whether or not the Eagles (or any other team) can identify them is another story.

 – Geno Smith

Not a fit for the Eagles, and I’m definitely not a scout, but this guy ran a 4.59 and, more importantly, completed 67% of his college passes.  The last time a QB was not selected in the top 5 was 2000, and that may have been because one year earlier 5 QBs were taken in the top 15.  If you’re looking for a guy that might sneak into the top of the board (and all Eagles fans should be), this is your best bet.

 

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