FA thoughts and the 2010 2nd Round

Was asked to post the 2010 2nd round table, so here it is.  Still waiting for FA news.  I think it’s best to ignore the “rumors”, hence no speculation here.  In general though, my FA plan would be:

– Add depth (everywhere) with low-priced veterans on 1-2 year deals.

– Add a NT. Doesn’t have to be a great one (not many of those in the NFL), but a huge need if the team is moving to a 3-4.  This wouldn’t preclude taking one in the draft, but even then you need a back-up and it would be nice to not be overly reliant on Dixon.

– MAYBE add one marquee guy, as long as he is relatively young (<26-27).  Plenty of cap space, so if the team loves a guy like Smith or Long then take a shot.  Key is to pick the one they really like and let the others go.

– Don’t tie up cap space beyond this year.  This is a massive transition for the Eagles, and the fact is that Howie/Chip themselves don’t know how it’s going to shake out.  They key is to bolster the roster while maintaining cap flexibility for the next couple years.  With so many moving parts, it’s impossible to say who fits and who doesn’t, so throwing big money around is very risky.

Conversely, if you preserve space until the rest of the foundation is together, you have a much clearer picture of where your needs are and which impact FAs fit the team best.

Patience is the key, though it remains to be seen if the Eagles new front office has any.

Oh, and I wouldn’t consider, even for a moment, giving up the #4 pick for Revis.

Now the 2010 draft table:Screen Shot 2013-03-12 at 1.17.08 PM

As noted by a commenter yesterday, TJ Ward has had a pretty good start to his career and was drafted 1 spot after Nate Allen.  This system has Ward as one of the biggest reaches; he had one of the lowest included prospect ratings.

– Taylor Mays presents an interesting case.  His aggregate scouting rating was pretty good, hence the high rating here.  However, I remember a LOT of commentators downgrading him.  He may be a good case of why the system needs more sets of ratings.  My guess is there were a lot or scouts who did not score him as highly as ESPN or NFL.com.

– Torell Troup looks like a big mistake by the Bills, though injuries have wrecked his career, so its hard to judge him.  It’s worth noting that Terrance Cody and Linval Joseph were both ranked significantly higher and available at the Bills pick.

– Regarding Cody (since he came up yesterday as well), he’s been pretty inconsistent, and was supplanted by Kemoeatu in the starting line-up, but PFF actually graded him better last year than Kemoeatu.

Also, I realized I didn’t do a good job of showing the big picture.  No individual player’s ranking will be perfect in any system.  The goal is to create a system that, overall, does a better job of valuing players.  Here is a table showing the actual first round of 2010 with the PVM top 32.  We’ll delve deeper into this type of comparison some other time, for now you can analyze/compare them and make up your own mind.

Screen Shot 2013-03-12 at 1.48.50 PM

One last note:  This system is by no means a finished product.  To that end, if you have an idea for improving it, please let me know.  No pride of ownership here, I just want to create the best system possible.

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4 thoughts on “FA thoughts and the 2010 2nd Round

  1. This is general really good work.
    I thought if you could combine this PVM ratings with your strategy card so that it also takes into account if a QB is rated as a 2nd rounder. This is ofcourse to avoid a Jimmy Clausen to be a top 5 pick, because there is a reason he is rated as a 2nd rounder, so while positional value should have an effect, you should also take into account how poorly QBs rated outside the 1st round becomes.

    • Thats the next big step as far as im concerned. Still thinking through the best way to combine the two though, hence no post yet.

      you’re onto something though

      On Tue, Mar 12, 2013 at 6:12 PM, Eagles Rewind

      • “This is general really good work.”
        – I thought you’re going to Wharton, not Warsaw…

        Comedy night aside, this is a great idea. I am curious to see how you implement it. I don’t see a bright-line elimination strategy as ideal; perhaps there is a way to adjust a prospect’s rating according to whether they are picked in a favorable round (PVMr [round]). Adding a variable such as Y*(percentage of hitting at that position in the projected round) could work. Question is, how do you figure out how much weight to give it?

        Y = 1 is the intuitive answer, but I am not sure how much change that would actually have. Perhaps have Z = the highest value increase (say .7 starter), and use the multiplier 1/Z as Y. What do you think? Either way, food for thought.

  2. I thought something like you do Paradox. Its just important that this is applied based on the rankings before positional value is added.

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