Overrated/Underrated Top Prospects

While I posted the full TPR rankings earlier this week, I didn’t go through them in any detail.   Today I’ll look at the players most effected by the formula.

First the fallers.  These are players whose consensus scouting ranking is HIGHER than their ranking in the TPR system.  As a result, these are players we expect to be OVERDRAFTED.  Now we need to be careful about the relative magnitude here.  For example, a ranking difference (as shown in the TPR Effect column) of just a few spots isn’t a big deal.  We’re mostly concerned with the larger movements, as they indicate a wide divergence between perceived value and actual value (as we’re attempting to quantify it here).

Here are the top fallers among the top 60 overall prospects:

Screen Shot 2013-04-12 at 9.22.47 AM


For Eagles fans, the first guy on the list (Cyprien) should be of interest.  Cyprien is a definite potential target for the team in the 2nd round.  By these rankings, taking him at #35 overall would be a slight reach, but nothing to get too upset over.  HOWEVER, it also shows that we shouldn’t be surprised if he goes towards the end of the first round.

We should all hope that somebody takes Matt Elam in the first round (where he’s been listed in several mock drafts).  Elam ranks as just the #5 overall safety by the TPR rankings, FAR below Cyprien, Eric Reid, and just behind D.J. Swearinger.

Other notes:

– Jarvis Jones and Sylvester Williams both drop from the mid-first round to the end of the first round or beginning of the second.  Both of these players have relatively large scouting rating standard deviations, meaning ESPN, NFL.com, and NFP have largely divergent opinions of each player.  Neither seem to be in play for the Eagles, but these guys are both  wild cards for draft day, in that they can go anywhere from the top 15 to the top half of the second round.

– Dion Jordan falls 4 spots.  While that’s not a huge amount on an absolute basis, it’s very meaningful for him, since he began ranked 4th overall.  Though he’s been a popular mock pick for the Eagles at #4, the rankings here show that would NOT be a good pick.

Now let’s look at the risers.  These are guys who are likely to be UNDERDRAFTED, and therefore may represent good value in the first two rounds of the draft.Screen Shot 2013-04-12 at 9.38.23 AM

Quarterbacks, obviously, feature prominently on this list. Despite a relatively low hit rate, the QB position still receives the largest benefit from this system.  The reward of hitting on one is so much larger than the reward of any other position that QBs tend to fly up the list (which we see in real life as well).

What’s interesting here is that Tyler Wilson gains the most and becomes the SECOND ranked QB, just ahead of Matt Barkley.  Most QB discussion has centered on Geno Smith, Ryan Nassib, Matt Barkley, and EJ Manuel.  According to these rankings though, Tyler Wilson should be getting a lot more attention.

– Towards the lower end, Ezekiel Ansah benefits, moving from #8 to the top 5.  Still not sure if he can be a 5-tech DE (I think he can), but he remains a dark hose candidate for the Eagles pick.  His ranking here suggests that wouldn’t be a stretch.

– Tank Carradine jumps 10 spots, from the end of the first round to the middle.  He is a player I’ve been secretly hoping would drop to the Eagles at #35, but his listing here suggests that’s unlikely.  If he does, it’d be an early candidate for steal of the draft.




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