Where do Pro Bowl Tackles come from?

Dating back to 2003, there have been 28 Pro Bowl OTs (a number of them made multiple appearances).  I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look at where all of those players were drafted in order to get a sense of how likely it is for a team to uncover an elite OT either late in the draft or outside it.  Admittedly, the Pro Bowl is not a perfect measure of skill, and it’s possible that the shear visibility of being drafted early helps a player get to the Pro Bowl.  However, for a high-level look and hypothesis formulation, it suffices.

Although I expected the results to skew heavily to rounds 1 and 2 (they should if NFL talent evaluators are actually good at their jobs), I was very surprised by the severity of the actual results:

Screen Shot 2012-12-17 at 3.01.17 PM

 

Seen above are the amount of Pro Bowl players ordered by the round they were chosen in.  With such a small sample size, I think its reasonable to assume the odds are not greater of finding a Pro Bowl OT in round 5 than in round 3; we can chalk that up to chance.  However, it does show something fairly useful.  That is, if your goal is to have a Pro Bowl OT, you really need to draft one in the first round.

I’m going to take a similar look at several other positions and see if the distribution is as severe (my guess is that there are only a few positions as skewed).

Regardless, it certainly suggests that it is very difficult to put together an elite offensive line (assuming OTs are most important in the endeavor) without the use of high draft choices.

Looking ahead to the draft

As discussed last week, at the end of the season, it’s likely that the Eagles will find themselves with their highest 1st round draft pick since choosing Donovan McNabb #2 overall in 1999.  So let’s take a look at the current prospect rankings and talk about the potential directions the Eagles could take.

First caveat: We do not know how much input the next coach will have when it comes to the draft.  My guess is that Howie Roseman is calling the shots, and will have final say on each pick.  It’s safe to assume that the top coaching candidates will want some personnel control, though, so that could change once the Eagles enter the hiring season (I think it’s unlikely Roseman cedes any control.)

Looking at this year’s projected class (underclassmen may choose to return to school), we can see that the Eagles’ timing is pretty bad.  Regardless of the Eagles’ particular needs, the absence of one or two franchise QB prospects definitely diminishes the value of a top 5 pick.  Additionally, Scouts Inc. typically has at least 2-3 prospects with a grade of 97-98, of which there are none this year.  While Scouts Inc is far from perfect in its grading, its board typically closely resembles the consensus “big board” at draft time.  However, given the current landscape, the team is in pretty good position to get a major piece (as they should be with a likely top 5 pick).

Here are the top prospects according to Scouts Inc. along with their rating:

Star Lotulelei – DT – 96

Jarvis Jones – OLB – 96

Damontre Moore – DE – 96

Chance Warmack – G – 96

Manti Te’o – LB – 96

Luke Joeckel – OT – 96

Right off the bat, I think we can eliminate Warmack and Damontre Moore from consideration.  I feel pretty confident in saying the Eagles will recognize that selecting a G (even if he projects as potentially the best in the league) is a terrible value that high in the draft.  Guys like Todd McShay are saying Warmack is the “best guard I’ve evaluated in the past decade, Warmack is the rare interior lineman worthy of a top-10 overall pick”, but I’m not buying it.  The position doesn’t have a great enough impact on the game, and average guard play is much easier to account for than either a porous D-Line or mediocre OTs.  Top 5 picks are rare, and team’s must maximize the impact from them (though for teams that don’t perhaps top 5 picks are not as rare).

Dismissing a DE is riskier, especially given what appears to be a strong fetish for them among NFL GMs.  However, I think (hope?) the play of Brandon Graham and the existence of Vinny Curry will push them to look elsewhere.

From there, the big name to watch is STAR, as in Star Lotulelei, the DT from Utah.  Roseman has said pretty strongly that he will be sticking with a “best-available” strategy rather than picking for need, and at this point it looks like Lotulelei has the inside track on the consensus “highest rated prospect” designation.  While DT isn’t a glaring hole for the Eagles, the opportunity to pair Lotulelei with Cox for the next 5 years would intrigue any coach.  The current scouting report on Star mentions some work needed on his pass-rush skills, but given Cox’s talent for getting pressure, that would seem like a strong match.

If Star is taken, then the obvious (for me at least) pick is an OT.  Some may argue that OT isn’t a need, because Peters and Herremans will be back next year.  I look at it a little differently.  Assuming the Peters/Herremans/Kelce trio comes back next year at 100% of their former skill (a big assumption that most are making quite easily), the O-line would look like this:

Peters – Mathis – Kelce – Scott? – Herremans

The RG position is up in the air (really wish that Watkins kid could play), but whoever they plug in, I feel comfortable in saying that the OL wouldn’t be a weakness and my guess is that it would be above-average.  The left side of the line is among the best in the league, but the Herremans/Scott combo leaves much to be desired.  Though most fans like Herremans, I don’t consider him any better than average at OT.  He won’t get the QB killed, but he isn’t going to set the edge in the run game or completely shut down top pass-rushers.

Now lets look at the line with Joeckel (or whichever OT is deemed best at draft time).

Peters- Mathis – Kelce – Herremans – Joeckel

The left side of the line remains the same and has the potential to be among the best in the league.  Herremans moves back inside to Guard, where he has been very strong in the past.  Joeckel at RT gives the Eagles the best set of tackles they’ve had since Runyan/Thomas (wait…isn’t that the last time they contended?  coincidence?).  Additionally, it has to be said that, not only is Peters coming off an injury, but he isn’t getting any younger (he turns 31 in January).  While OTs can play at a high level well into their 30’s, it would be prudent for the Eagles to start looking for someone on the right side that could replace Peters when the time comes.  We can also look at this as risk-mitigation, in case Peters does not return to his former ability or suffers a new injury.

The remaining players listed above (Te’o and Jones) are both wild cards.  I think Te’o is a very unlikely pick for the Eagles, as I assume Roseman hasn’t completely abandoned what he sees as the relatively low value of LBs (he’s not entirely wrong).  Jones, however, seems to be all over the place when it comes to evaluation.  He projects as a OLB in a 3-4 defense, so its conceivable that if a new coach brings a 3-4 with him, then he would pound the table for a guy like Jones.  However, I think the more likely role for both Jones and Te’o in the Eagles draft analysis is as trade fodder.

I think it’s likely that there are several teams will be willing to pay up for Jones (less-so for Te’o but possible), meaning the Eagles may have the chance to slide down a few picks.  Provided they could do-so and remain near the top of the draft (getting their OT), this would appear the be the best-case scenario.

To summarize:  OT is the current favorite in my estimation, though DT is a significant possibility.

In any case, root for a high draft position.

As an aside, here is a link to National Football Post’s top 200 prospects.  I mention this because they appears to disregard the consensus analysis and rely solely on tape and their own research, which obviously appeals to me and, at the very least, provides a different perspective.

A note about turnovers

I’m working on a longer analysis that’ll look at individual player fumble percentages.   In the meantime, I thought I’d provide some color on the Eagles terrible turnover statistics this season.

For those who are unaware, the Eagles rank last in the league in turnover differential at -22.  Of their 34 total turnovers, 21 have been fumbles.  As you can imagine, consistently forfeiting possession diminishes the chances for success.

There is reason to hope, however, that next year will see improvement.  The numbers above are mostly a function of the rate of Eagles fumbles and their inability to recover them.  Below is a chart illustrating the Eagles fumble recovery percentage (includes both Eagles fumbles and opponents fumbles):

Screen Shot 2012-12-16 at 12.43.43 PM

In general, we would expect fumble recovery rates for individual teams over the long-term to hover around 50% (given the play’s binary nature).  Indeed, if we take the average of the series above we get a value of around 47%.

The problem?  This year the Eagles are much, much worse; the team is recovering just 35.19% of all fumbles, which ranks 29th in the league.  Combine that with the fact that the Eagles are fumbling more often than the rest of the league and we can begin to see why the team is last in the league.

In the next week or so, I plan to take a look at the correlation of team fumbles from one year to the next (as I’m currently doing for individuals), but at the very least, we can assume that the Eagles are likely to improve on their recovery rate next year (if for no better reason than its difficult to be worse).  Holding all other things equal, that alone will result in an improvement in the turnover differential, raising the odds of success.

Post-game notes: Eagles vs. Bengals

Brace yourselves, I’m about to say something ridiculous…

That was just about the best performance in a 34-13 loss possible, and Eagles fans should be relatively encouraged by much of what they saw.  Ignore the bullshit and remember that since the Eagles aren’t in the playoff hunt, the scoreboard doesn’t matter.

Is anyone really worried about Cedric Thornton’s ability to field a kick?  Didn’t think so.

I was at the game, so in essence I got to see the All-22 live (though seeing which players are in on tackles is difficult without the TV and replays.)  Following is a list of what does matter coming out of the game:

– Nick Foles.  Not a good game.  However, I warned you that this was likely going to be much worse than his last game.  Foles made one obviously bad throw which is a bit puzzling (and worrisome), but he also did a good job of moving in the pocket and not making high-risk throws.  If it hadn’t been for the turnovers by the rest of the team, Foles would be praised for his ability to “manage the game”.  He was accurate again, though he did not appear to have the same precision as last week.

The interception was interesting because it came on a play that is ostensibly a strength of his.  Every scouting report on Foles mentions a lack of mobility and a strong arm.  In reality, what we’ve seen in play is almost the reverse.  He’s definitely slow, but moves very well in the pocket and uses his head to account for his slow speed.  The arm strength, however, has not been shown as clearly.  We have seen flashes of it, but accuracy appears to be a problem when he is forced to drop a pass deep downfield over-top a WR.  This throw was a clear under-throw.  There is a chance that he under-threw it on purpose, assuming the WR would see it and be able to adjust while the DB wouldn’t.  It’s very unlikely, but a possibility for reconciling it with his supposed arm strength.  Regardless, this is something to keep a close eye on for the rest of the season.

– The Defense.  The defense played a fantastic game, which is remarkable in the face of 34 points allowed.  Let’s look at some stats:

249 total offensive yards for the Bengals.

Andy Dalton was 13 of 27 for just 127 yards (and two fumbles).

The Law Firm ran for 106 yards on 25 carries.  29 of those yards came on one rush.  Outside of that play the Eagles held him to 3.2 yards per carry.

The Eagles registered 6 sacks and 7 passes deflected.

As we can see from the box score (and from watching it if you were able to ignore the score), the defense played a great game.

– Cox/Graham.  I mentioned in the pre-game thoughts that this was a big opportunity for both of these players.   I think they got the message.  Though I’ll have to confirm it on the tape, this was clearly either the best game or close to it for Cox and Graham.  Both consistently drove their blockers backwards and repeatedly disrupted the Cincinnati offense.

Graham finished with 2.5 sacks, 3 QB hits, and a forced fumble.

Cox finished with 1.5 sacks and 2 QB hits.  His game was actually a lot stronger than those numbers suggest, as he was able to collapse the pocket and force Dalton to scramble, contributing heavily to the overall defensive numbers.

– Colt Anderson. Didn’t see too much of him (positive or negative), but because of how much I’ve talked about his poor coverage skills, I felt I had to give him props for breaking up what would have been a 1st half touchdown pass to A.J. Green.  That’s exactly what a safety should do, so I’m kind of congratulating him for doing his job, but it was nice to see nonetheless.

– Don’t jump off the Bryce Brown train just yet. The last two games have taken some of the luster off Brown, but don’t get too down on him.  The fumbles are a big problem, but one that can be fixed.  From what I’ve seen, the poor yardage is a result of terrible run-blocking rather than poor performances by Brown.  Jake Scott in particular looked like he had an awful game, but we’ll wait to confirm on the game rewind.

Andy Reid Article

 

Very good article on Andy Reid published on Grantland today (written by Bill Barnwell).  I’ve included the link below.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8746325/bill-barnwell-takes-all-andy-reid-haters

Towards the end of the season we’ll take a look at some Andy Reid numbers in hopes of gaining a good perspective on how best to characterize his tenure.  However, the linked article is a great outline.

I’ve been a vocal Andy Reid supporter for a while, and though it certainly appears like it’s time for both the franchise and him to move on, don’t be surprised when he competes for a title with another team.

 

Pre-game notes: Eagles vs. Bengals

As we get ready for a Thursday night game, a few notes followed by what to watch for:

– Regarding Nick Foles, this game is flashing a pretty strong “REGRESSION” sign.  Each defense Foles has faced is ranked in the bottom third of the league for opposing QB Rating allowed.  Cincinnati isn’t great (ranking 15th and allowing an average rating of 84.7) but is significantly better than Tampa Bay (allowing an average rating of 92.4).  Don’t be surprised if Foles’ stat line looks much worse than last week.

– Barring a miraculous performance by the O-Line, Foles is going to face significant pressure and will take some hits tonight.  The Bengals lead the league in both sacks per game (3.2) and sack percentage (8.27%).  Tampa Bay averaged just 1.5 per game heading into last week and came away with 6.

– The Eagles DBs will face a stiff test with A.J. Green in town.  In my opinion, he and Calvin Johnson are the best WRs in the game right now.  It will be interesting to see how the Eagles cover him (expect A LOT of double-teams).  Look for the Eagles to do everything possible to prevent him from getting single coverage with a safety, as trusting Allen or Anderson 1-on-1 would likely be a disaster.  Theoretically, this should open things up for other Bengals underneath, as zone coverage will be a gamble (at least on Green’s side).  The Bengals should be able to use Green to pull coverage, opening up the space he vacates.

What to Watch For:

Can Foles avoid a turnover?  To date, he’s been pretty good at protecting the ball and not making high risk throws.  However, in the face of the toughest defense he has seen (and with a short week to prepare) he’s going to be under more pressure than he’s accustomed to.  If it’s tough to move the ball (as it should be), we’ll see if he starts pressing.  Last week he did not.

As a reminder, forget Foles’ stat line.  Watch for his ability to make progressions (watch his head when he drops back) and avoid high-risk throws.  Also, still looking for an accurate deep ball…

Short slants and RB-flats from the offense.  I’m a little surprised they haven’t tried to hit Brown through the air a few more times (though perhaps he can’t catch), but they’ll need a variety of check-downs and hot routes to take advantage against the pass rush.

Mychal Kendricks.  Last game he was shifted to WLB and played perhaps his best game of the year (certainly his best since the first month of the season).  On the weak-side, he can use his speed more effectively.  Specifically, watch him in coverage (mostly RBs out of the backfield and TEs coming across the formation) , as that’ll be a major responsibility of his if they keep him on that side.

Brandon Graham/Fletcher Cox.  Cincinnati has problems protecting Andy Dalton and ranks in the bottom third of the league in both sacks allowed per game and sack percentage allowed.  This should be an opportunity for both Graham and Cox to make an impact.  Ideally we’d see Trent Cole with a big game, but his play has slipped dramatically since last year.  Hard to tell what’s wrong; he just isn’t winning one-on-one battles like he used to (might be an undisclosed injury or just a decline in ability).

Play Action.  As I mentioned in the breakdown from the Bucs game, Tampa Bay didn’t run nearly as much PA as I expected them to given the Eagles problems  defending it.  The shift away from the Wide-9 should help fix that, but there wasn’t enough of it run last game to test that assumption.

Colt Anderson/Jamar Chaney. Chaney re-entered the starting line-up last game when Kendricks shifted to WLB.  Both Anderson and Chaney were terrible early this year when given playing time.  Neither was tested very much by the Bucs.  For Chaney, see how involved he is.  He has a bad habit of getting sucked up by the first blocker he encounters.  He isn’t quick enough to go around them, and hasn’t yet shown the strength or athleticism to get off them.

Colt Anderson has had serious issues in coverage.  Against the Bucs, his positive plays came exclusively against the run (and on blitzes rather than read-and-reacts).  I’m not expecting very much from either player, but if one of them can be at least serviceable (i.e. close to average) then it eliminates a big hole for the Eagles heading into next year.

A look at the standings:

As the season winds down, I thought it’d be a good time to take a look at the standings, particularly the bottom as teams jostle for better draft position. While it’s very difficult to root for the Eagles to lose, make no mistake, losses are much more valuable than wins right now (repeating the note from last week’s post-game, the drop from the #3-#4 draft pick is worth a second round pick according to the standard value chart).

There are currently 8 teams at 4-9 (including the Eagles).  Below is the current order of teams (according to ESPN) as well as the combined records of the teams each has left to play.  There are 5 teams at 5-8, but for the sake of clarity, I chose to omit them.

Team                             Remaining Schedule (Combined Record)

Carolina (4-9) –                        SD, OAK, NO (13-26)

Tennessee (4-9) –                   NYJ, GB, JAC (17-22)

Detroit (4-9) –                         ARZ, ATL, CHI (23-16)

Arizona (4-9) –                       DET, CHI, SF (21-17-1)

Philadelphia (4-9) –               CIN, WAS, NYG  (22-17)

Oakland (3-10) –                   KC, CAR, SD (11-28)

Jacksonville (2-11) –             MIA, NE, TEN  (19-20)

Kansas City (2-11) –            OAK, IND, DEN (22-17)

Note:  The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule (teams with a lower SOS get a higher pick).

– It’s very unlikely that either KC or JAC will win 2 of their remaining 3 games, meaning we can cross the Eagles off for the #1-#2 draft pick.

– Oakland actually has a very easy schedule and could win any of their three remaining games, though it’s likely that if they finish with the same record as the Eagles they will win the tiebreaker (a function of the relative division strength).  Therefore, the #3 pick is unlikely as well).

– After that, the Eagles have the inside track on the #4 pick, and will likely take it if they lose out.  Conversely, one win by the Eagles puts all of the 5-8 teams in play (remember there are 5 of them now).

– Key game to watch this week (other than the Eagles of course) is Oak-KC.  If Oakland wins, the Eagles could find themselves tied for the #3 pick.  Though I noted above that SOS would likely still favor Oakland, the Raiders have two games (CAR, SD) that are relatively winnable.

Due to the Thursday night game this week, there will be a long layoff before the All-22 comes out and I can review it.  Therefore, the beginning of next week will have look at the draft board and what’s available for the Eagles versus what the projected needs are going into next year.

Week 14: Eagles vs. Bucs

This week:

Notes from the game, with a focus on Nick Foles and the defense.

The Catch (and throw)

Foles to Avant Part 2 (Illustration of pocket awareness).

First, Nick Foles:

– Hello West-Coast Offense!  It seems like the Eagles have finally found a QB that is a perfect fit for the west-coast offense.  What you saw on Sunday was precisely how it is supposed to work, with many short (5 yd) routes and pinpoint throws substituting for a running game.  One of the strangest aspects of the Andy Reid era has been his insistence on running a west-coast scheme without finding the right QB for it.  Neither McNabb nor Vick were accurate enough.  In fact, the offense McNabb ran really wasn’t a true West-Coast scheme (Andy Reid just used that as cover for why he threw the ball so much), as it relied on deep throws and big plays.

-The Tampa Bay pass defense is the worst in the league.  However, Foles did exactly what a good QB should do against a terrible pass defense, and after reviewing the tape, this clearly was not a case of a terrible defense making a QB look good.

– Particularly encouraging: Foles finally showed he has the ability to make more than 1.5 progressions before hitting a check-down.  In fact, he often used his legs to buy time while keeping his eyes downfield and making all of his reads.  Perhaps more importantly, he was remarkably accurate when throwing on the run, which in any case is a good sign, but especially since the Eagles O-line didn’t do him any favors.

-For the most part, his decision making was strong, though he had a few ill-advised passes.

-Considering how bad the running game was (more on that in a moment), fans should be very encouraged that Foles was able to handle carrying the whole offense.

-One note of caution: we still did not see evidence of an ability to hit a deep ball.  He had several opportunities, but was not accurate in any of them (one could argue the left-sideline bomb to Riley Cooper was accurate since it he got his fingertips on it, but he would have had to lay out for it while keeping himself in bounds in very limited space).

Overall, though, I think this game definitely improved Foles’ value, regardless of the last second heroics (which have been a little overblown in my opinion).  He clearly knows how to use the pocket and seems extremely comfortable now that he has a few games under his belt.

The O-Line:

– The O-line was completely overpowered, especially when run-blocking.  Not a huge surprise, given the Bucs lead the league in rush defense, but this was definitely a step back for a unit that had improved modestly over the last couple games.

– While the Bucs did register 6 sacks, several were coverage sacks, and late in the game the O-Line did a good job of giving Foles both the time and space to make some plays (and he helped them by scrambling intelligently, stepping upfield rather than pulling a Vick special and rolling sideways into a DE).

The Defense:

– In the first game of the post-wide-9 era, the defense certainly appeared to improve greatly.  Don’t get too excited though, Josh Freeman played a terrible game and missed badly on some throws he should have completed.

– Though I think things like “effort” and “attitude” are usually over-valued by most commentators, the defense really did seem to be playing harder.  Whether that’s a direct result of Washburn being gone is unknown, but it was nice to see nevertheless.

– Among the most encouraging signs was the team’s tackling, as they did a very good job of bringing down receivers at first contact.  Doug Martin caused some problems, but nothing unexpected (he’s a very strong runner) and when he did break a tackle, the rest of the defense was there to prevent a breakaway.

– Though they only managed 2 sacks, the D-line was active all game and did a good job of disrupting the pocket for Freeman.  Would have liked to see some more direct pressure, but it was better than the stat line would suggest.

– The defense deflected 9 passes, suggesting strong coverage throughout (an in fact it was mostly strong).  Kendricks played a particularly active game, deflecting 3 balls and making a bigger impact than we have seen from him recently (he was shifted to WLB and seemed much more comfortable in that role).

– Nnamdi will likely not be on the team next year.  He struggled all game, and although it’d be nice to blame it on his injury and praise his toughness in coming back, this isn’t an isolated instance.  He hasn’t performed anywhere close to his paycheck all year, and I can’t see the Eagles holding on to what’s clearly a poor value proposition (if he’s willing to take a pay cut then perhaps there’s a deal to be made).

-I’m very puzzled by the game-plan for the Bucs.  The Eagles have been susceptible all year to PA and the Bucs didn’t run much of it, despite getting a lot of traction on the ground with Martin.  Also, Colt Anderson was not tested much in coverage, which as far as I’m concerned is a massive error by the Bucs coaches.

Now for some key plays:

Play 1 Avant’s Catch (really could be called Foles’ Throw):

– By now we’ve all seen the replay of Avant’s amazing one-handed grab, however, Foles’ throw on the play has been repeatedly overlooked.

3rd and 16 in the second quarter, this play led to a Henery field goal.  Below is the set-up. Although the Bucs line up with 3 down lineman and 3 LBs, this is essentially a Nickel D (with one rusher standing in an attempt to disguise the rush).  From this, the Bucs send a big blitz, overloaded the left side of the Eagles line.  Notice the MLB’s route, as he comes across the center to ensure the left side of the Eagles line is outmanned.  Also, the safety begins his rush presnap so his distance to the QB is not as great at he start of the play.  While this helps the Bucs get pressure, it also ensures that Avant has single coverage.

Screen Shot 2012-12-12 at 4.53.03 PM

Just after the snap, we can see the blitz in progress.  Notice the safety-blitz has created a lot of space on the left side of the field.  Avant’s corner takes inside position, knowing his team is blitzing from that side and ensuring that Avant can’t break to the middle (which would be vital if Foles rolls out away from the blitz).

Eagles Vs Bucs 2

At the moment before the throw, Avant is just getting out of his break.   Harder to see is what Foles is dealing with.  The rush is successful, and Foles not only can’t step into the throw, but actually has a defender grabbing him when he releases the ball.  Also, note how deep the remaining safety is.  With 6 rushers (and one delayed when the LB realizes he has nobody to cover), the Bucs are forced to keep a defender very deep in an effort to prevent a touchdown if the rush doesn’t get home.

Eagles Bucs 3

Here is a good look at Foles the moment he throws the ball.  We’ve all seen the resulting catch, but take note of how impressive the throw is.  With a man on him and no space to step up, Foles throws a perfect ball 40 yards to Avant, putting it high enough to get over the CB (who remember is playing inside so is between Avant and Foles) while still giving Avant a chance to make the catch.

Eagles Bucs 4

In all, a great play by both Avant and Foles.

Foles to Avant Part 2:

1st and 10 in the 3rd quarter.  This led to Henery’s missed 31 yard field goal.

This play is a great example of Foles using the pocket to beat a blitz and complete a big play to Avant.  The Bucs line up with 5 men on the line (4 in 3 point stances, 1 standing up top).  Again, they bring a safety blitz around the end while rushing the MLB at the center.  In all, 6 men end up as pass rushers, with the end on the bottom of the screen falling back into coverage (though he ends up doing nothing).  Meanwhile, Avant is lined up in the slot, and despite getting tripped by the lineman who drops into coverage, he manages to get himself open across the middle, giving Foles the outlet he needs.

Screen Shot 2012-12-12 at 5.31.37 PM

Here is Foles at the depth of his drop.  Avant is just breaking and will gain separation in another moment.  However, the rush is closing in on Foles, particularly from the ends.  Notice the open space ahead of Foles, he is about to put it to good use.

Screen Shot 2012-12-12 at 5.24.40 PM

Below we can see Foles as he is about to step up in the pocket.  We can see the end closing in on him from the right, meaning if he doesn’t step up at this moment he’s taking a blind side sack.

Screen Shot 2012-12-12 at 5.43.58 PM

Here is the moment of the throw.  Foles has stepped up, giving himself just enough time to get the ball to Avant, who is now streaking across the middle of the field (though hard to see below, Foles is just ahead of the 50 yard line).

Screen Shot 2012-12-12 at 5.24.54 PM

In summary, a good example of Foles’ pocket awareness, which was strong the entire game.  Despite his lack of speed (see the amazingly slow TD run), Foles seems to understand how to use the mobility he has.  It’s nice to see a rookie with such awareness.

Additionally, the ball is delivered accurately, which allowed Avant to break the initial tackle and gain an additional 14 yards after the catch.

More on completion percentage…

Below is a chart illustrating the change in completion percentage from college to the NFL for current NFL starting QBs (note that I included Alex Smith over Kaepernick because the change was so recent and used Vick over Foles so that Foles didn’t affect the numbers).

Admittedly it’s not the most elegant illustration, but we can quickly infer some useful information.  (The left extreme is a drop from college to pro, while the right extreme is a gain from college to pro)

Screen Shot 2012-12-11 at 4.21.08 PM

Note the x-axis values.  Just one player (Drew Brees) managed to improve upon is college completion rate by more than 4%.   Conversely, 7 current NFL QB’s have a pro completion rate more than 4% below their college marks.

The average change (not weighted for # of attempts) is -1.56%.

This year, the average completion percentage for the QBs included in the chart is 61.63%.

Upshot – With a college completion percentage of 66%, Nick Foles could suffer a decline of 5.28% and still be roughly equal to the average NFL starting measure. (Assumption – the included player sample is accurate for evaluating Nick Foles.)

Coincidentally, Nick Foles is currently completing 61.4% of his passes, or right at league average.

Caveat – The sample above is subject to several unavoidable biases, namely survivorship bias, as any QB whose completion percentage dropped by a very large amount would likely not be starting and therefore would not be included in the sample above (i.e. Jamarcus Russell, whose rate differential was -9.7%).  However, huge declines appear to be relatively rare, and within the sample several of those suffering the largest declines are in no immediate danger of losing their jobs (Andrew Luck, Sam Bradford, even Mark Sanchez is proving incredibly resilient when it comes to keeping his job), suggesting that organizational inertia somewhat counteracts the survivorship issue.

Does Nick Foles = Bobby Hoying 2.0?

(See today’s Philly.com article by Phil Sheridan)

Short Answer:  I don’t think so.

Longer Answer: While there are some eerie similarities, there is a large piece of evidence that points to Nick Foles having a higher probability of long-term success than Bobby Hoying had after his promising start.

Phil Sheridan points to the team adversity as a reason for Hoying’s failure.  Although that didn’t help, perhaps a larger factor was the accuracy of Hoying.  There are a number of attributes necessary for QB success, but accuracy is among the most important (if you don’t believe me please look at the current leaderboard).  While completion percentage is an imperfect measure (not accounting for drops, distance, throwaways, etc…), it still provides a decent indication of how good a QB is at getting the ball to where he wants it to go.  Furthermore, it is a measure that is rarely every significantly improved upon by players making the jump to the pro’s, that is, completion percentage in college is a good indication a player’s potential professional completion percentage.

Bobby Hoying’s college completion percentage was 58%, which is not terrible for college, but a very weak measure for aspiring pro’s (there are currently only two starting NFL QB’s with worse, Jay Cutler and Matt Stafford).

Nick Foles’ college completion percentage was 66.9%. (Of note: Michael Vick’s was 56.5%, which would be by far the worst in the league if he was still starting).

Counterpoint: There is a substantial (and obvious) flaw in the direct comparison of Foles to Hoying: Time.  NFL passing offenses have grown significantly in scale/importance/sophistication since Hoying played, and QB performance has risen substantially.  Hoying’s rookie year, the average NFL completion percentage was just 56%.  The current average for starting QBs is 61.62%.  However, there is a strong case to be made that as teams have emphasized passing, they have changed the methods for scouting QBs, weighing things like completion percentage more heavily than in the past (while lessening the attention paid to “intangibles”).  I believe its fair to say that overall QB play in today’s game is substantially better than in 1997 (Hoying’s rookie year).  In fact, it’s likely that if Hoying’s college career was evaluated for the draft today, he would be a much lower draft choice than #85 (if he was drafted at all).

Regardless, the relative comparison of each player’s college completion percentage to the league at the time of their respective rookie year’s suggests Foles has much more potential for success (relative to league average).